475 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

Thanks Gismeu, good trading to you.

[dharma]

here we are in correction mode. it seems to me we had a 5 wave advance and then another smaller 5 wave advance from the july lows the pattern looks quite bullish. we are approaching diwali buying  . and the seasonal strong time of year for gold.  then top that off w/the debt ceiling debate coming up and you have the backdrop for a bull move in gold. i have been waiting to add, and i think we are there or awful close. i have support at 1229 and 1245  i am waiting a little longer. but i am seeing bottoming action on the hourly charts.   the debt ceiling is destined to turn into a real mess. w/party lines at the heart of the issue. not the good of the country.  

trump realizes that the way to pay down the debt is to devalue the currency, yes the world is in currency wars.  i expect he continues to lower the dollar. which is a risk on currency. the yen on the other hand is a risk off currency , as is gold the ultimate risk off currency. note the cot for the yen http://www.graceland...017aug8cot2.png  the commercials have a giant position in long the yen. it also could be a time when kuroda starts to raise rates.  the commercials  are preparing for the debt crises imo.  i think gold has a surprising good rally.  i dont know how long the correction continues  but not much longer. 

dharma

[dharma]

today marks the 7th day down day in a row for gdx, it falls into ganns 7-10 day rule

nibbling

dharma

[jabat]

 

 

[johngeorge]

today marks the 7th day down day in a row for gdx, it falls into ganns 7-10 day rule

nibbling

dharma

 

Did a little bit of nibbling myself this am.  May do more in the coming days.  Will see.

[senorBS]

I think we might be getting close here in the miner ETF's/indices, its so interesting the capitulation/cratering we've seen is smaller caps especially with earnings mises - utter hammerings, yet the GDX/XAU remain solidly above their July lows/ Also I have to wonder whether silver solid outperformance is just one of those one-day things or perhaps we might finally see an outperformance trend change here? also silver production looks to have peaked in 2016 and has begun to decline with few significant projects on the horizon - at some pt this will likely manifest int the price of silver. about 20% long and looking to add.

 

Senor

[dharma]

senor to one of your points this is typical action for a commodity in this case silver . http://www.zerohedge...r-silver-miners . mining production of silver plummets because miners cant mine silver and make a profit so , they slow production down , this causes less supply to be in the market. which then causes price to appreciate  which then causes more exploration and a top where production outstrips supply . for now though we are  at a price which mining silver is not attractive. i nibbled on some exk(not a recommendation or investment advice do your own due diligence. right now its your money).  next up for silver will be price appreciation.  its all a process.  

dharma

[senorBS]

senor to one of your points this is typical action for a commodity in this case silver . http://www.zerohedge...r-silver-miners . mining production of silver plummets because miners cant mine silver and make a profit so , they slow production down , this causes less supply to be in the market. which then causes price to appreciate  which then causes more exploration and a top where production outstrips supply . for now though we are  at a price which mining silver is not attractive. i nibbled on some exk(not a recommendation or investment advice do your own due diligence. right now its your money).  next up for silver will be price appreciation.  its all a process.  

dharma

LOL, I almost nibbled at EXK today but went with CDE near 7.60. 

 

Senor

[senorBS]

senor to one of your points this is typical action for a commodity in this case silver . http://www.zerohedge...r-silver-miners . mining production of silver plummets because miners cant mine silver and make a profit so , they slow production down , this causes less supply to be in the market. which then causes price to appreciate  which then causes more exploration and a top where production outstrips supply . for now though we are  at a price which mining silver is not attractive. i nibbled on some exk(not a recommendation or investment advice do your own due diligence. right now its your money).  next up for silver will be price appreciation.  its all a process.  

dharma

Dharma, the 1-12 hour charts all have 7 waves down (corrective) to the overnight low near 1250, and with the nice late session rally back just above 1260 I have to wonder if the correction has ended? we may soon see

 

Senor

[senorBS]

 

senor to one of your points this is typical action for a commodity in this case silver . http://www.zerohedge...r-silver-miners . mining production of silver plummets because miners cant mine silver and make a profit so , they slow production down , this causes less supply to be in the market. which then causes price to appreciate  which then causes more exploration and a top where production outstrips supply . for now though we are  at a price which mining silver is not attractive. i nibbled on some exk(not a recommendation or investment advice do your own due diligence. right now its your money).  next up for silver will be price appreciation.  its all a process.  

dharma

Dharma, the 1-12 hour charts all have 7 waves down (corrective) to the overnight low near 1250, and with the nice late session rally back just above 1260 I have to wonder if the correction has ended? we may soon see

 

Senor

 

hmmm, gold now near 1266 in evening trading, if this rally holds it gets very interesting for the bullish case of a long awaited iii of 3, with wave 1 being the recent rally from 1205 to 12754 - almost $70, if and I stress "IF" a wave 3 is underway its length could easily be $100 or more, interesting times. Keep in mind we'll probably be disappointed with this rally failing, but at least I can say the possible "setup is there"

 

Senor