1565 replies to this topic

[dougie]

Would be a riot if Armstrong were right

[senorBS]

Senor, do you approve of Jabat's count above where wave iv overlaps wave i? 

Only way that count works is if its a "leading diagional" in a wave 1 position - don't like that count very much. I prefer the orthodox low in mid March and then 5 up to March 26th and then an irregular flat that bottomed late last week, or we just go to a marginal new low next week below 1304 and then bottom. we see

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Gracias, Senor.

[K Wave]

Watch 15.50 on SLV today...after the extremely ugly Tri-Star island top on daily chart, if we go below 15.50, likely going to see new lows on that chart. likely with a big red candle that plows through the Mar-April lows...

 

The only I would think about going long this chart is if it can climb back above 15.70.

 

Eventually SLV will climb over the 900 day MA and actually be able to hold above...that is when you want to own truckloads for a big LT swing up....but this attempt to breach it looks like a massive failure at this point.

 

 

This could be the start of that big red candle this AM.

 

Whenever you see a big reversal at such a huge pivot point, they usually make the folks that bought into the breakout, and failed to respect the reversal, pay...hard.

 

That tri-star island just above resistance on SLV is one of the ugliest things I have seen in a while....

Edited by K Wave, 30 April 2018 - 07:09 AM.

[senorBS]

The recent rally in GOLD looks like a B wave (1365 high within a dollar of the Jan high and if correct this could be wave C and if its a flat could easily bottom at the area of recent lows at 1302-1307 or perhaps modestly lower. IMO technicals do not look set up for a more significant decline here but as always anything can happen. And by the way if gold/silver eke out new lows or double bottom it appears likely the miner indices/ETFs will diverge BIG TIME which IMO would be bullish. Looks like a big week ahead

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[senorBS]

put a few aggressive trades on this mornin - tight stops, so far my more "conservative longs" like GDX/GDXJ/ABX have made it easy to stay long

 

Senor

[dharma]

this is a very quiet market which seems to be keying off the dollar

my work shows this week as a turn, we shall see

 listening now , hadik https://www.howestre...ish-vs-bearish/

dharma

[Smithy]

Key support spot gold:

1310 - current low today

1308

1303

1296

Then not much below there til say 1285.

[dharma]

i look at this action, so far, as a retest of the feb/mar lows. meanwhile the miners are alot higher compared to gold . which is a bullish sign .miners lead up and down

from a fundamental point of view , this is quite bullish. https://gracelandupd...r30bullera1.pnglonger term for miners

money continues to flow from west to east  and indian investors are discovering their own stock market https://www.wsj.com/...e-in-1525010400

the mumbai gold exchange will be coming on stream soon

gold is still way above its december lows.  this base building could continue for a while longer. especially when you look at seasonal charts of gold -ie june/july is when the yearly lows are put in place.  http://seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html  

i believe the bottom has not been put in in the stock market.  lower stock prices will weaken the dollar, ie i think the move up is short term

yes, i have heard armstrongs spin on why he landed in the slammer. back when that happened his trading caused him to have huge losses . so like everyone else , he has had periods where he is a genius and then periods where he is a goat.  i take him w/a grain of salt

we are oversold here in the sector. lets see if bottoming action takes place. 

dharma

[dharma]

stagflation = inflation and recession.  even though economists thought it impossible it occurred in the 70s .  i believe the conditions are ripe for it to rear its ugly head 

again! https://www.bloomber...d-weaker-growth

 

we are in c of ii here w/a little downside to come.  

dharma