1565 replies to this topic

[dharma]

here is the captains count and projection. https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ewapr2018gold.png i dont know how he will reconcile this w/his silver projection. . its most unusual for gold and silver to go in different directions.  the miners have held up fairly well lately.   here is his dollar count https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ewapr2018usd.png

if this is in fact 3of3  so far it is stealth . i am somewhat cautious here.  if we are still in correction mode, which is a real possibility , then this time i would think the bears will break 1300 this time. now i am not saying correction is my preferred count. i am just bringing out its possible.  the broad market is tenuous, especially considering sell in may is right around the corner.  this is seasonally not a strong time of year for the metals .  and i am seeing demand from the east slack off . chinese dealers are camped at near 1300     lets see how this plays out. bears smack it in the morning and then gold rallied back yesterday, will that be the case again today!

dharma

[K Wave]

Now turning attention to Gold for a minute....

 

GLD has a MASSIVE multi-year cup w handle formation.

 

128 is the equivalent of the SLV 15.70 pivot for GLD.

IF it climbs out of this hole and manages an hourly close above 128, then it will likely join in on upside explosion.

 

But until then, there is still risk that the spike on April 11 was a top, so would not get too aggressively long before 128 is actually taken out.

 

Hopefully Silver is leading the way upside, and not GLD leading down.

 

In any event, they should "sync up" soon I would imagine, and based on SLV chart and the big cup w handle on GLD, methinks UP is a reasonable guess....just waiting on price to confirm.

[dougie]

added to longs, now about 50% long, as always DYODD
 
Senor

Interesting juncture here...

One question:the move in miners off recent lows doesn't seem threeish. So what is it

[dougie]

here is the captains count and projection. https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ewapr2018gold.png i dont know how he will reconcile this w/his silver projection. . its most unusual for gold and silver to go in different directions.  the miners have held up fairly well lately.   here is his dollar count https://captainewave...wapr2018usd.png
if this is in fact 3of3  so far it is stealth . i am somewhat cautious here.  if we are still in correction mode, which is a real possibility , then this time i would think the bears will break 1300 this time. now i am not saying correction is my preferred count. i am just bringing out its possible.  the broad market is tenuous, especially considering sell in may is right around the corner.  this is seasonally not a strong time of year for the metals .  and i am seeing demand from the east slack off . chinese dealers are camped at near 1300     lets see how this plays out. bears smack it in the morning and then gold rallied back yesterday, will that be the case again today!
dharma

Thank you for this cautious analysis

[senorBS]

here is the captains count and projection. https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ewapr2018gold.png i dont know how he will reconcile this w/his silver projection. . its most unusual for gold and silver to go in different directions.  the miners have held up fairly well lately.   here is his dollar count https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ewapr2018usd.png

if this is in fact 3of3  so far it is stealth . i am somewhat cautious here.  if we are still in correction mode, which is a real possibility , then this time i would think the bears will break 1300 this time. now i am not saying correction is my preferred count. i am just bringing out its possible.  the broad market is tenuous, especially considering sell in may is right around the corner.  this is seasonally not a strong time of year for the metals .  and i am seeing demand from the east slack off . chinese dealers are camped at near 1300     lets see how this plays out. bears smack it in the morning and then gold rallied back yesterday, will that be the case again today!

dharma

can't rule that out but "at his time" I don't think it likely. Have tight stops in on today's 10% position add and if we don't rally off the session low I would exit that trade as well and maybe even prune back to 30-35% long. I want a core long here but am willing to trade around it. I am more silver oriented at this time in my longs FWIW

 

Senor

[senorBS]

took off today's trade at breakeven, back to 40% long

 

Senor

[dharma]

Now turning attention to Gold for a minute....

 

GLD has a MASSIVE multi-year cup w handle formation.

 

128 is the equivalent of the SLV 15.70 pivot for GLD.

IF it climbs out of this hole and manages an hourly close above 128, then it will likely join in on upside explosion.

 

But until then, there is still risk that the spike on April 11 was a top, so would not get too aggressively long before 128 is actually taken out.

 

Hopefully Silver is leading the way upside, and not GLD leading down.

 

In any event, they should "sync up" soon I would imagine, and ber ased on SLV chart and the big cup w handle on GLD, methinks UP is a reasonable guess....just waiting on price to confirm.

here is a silver  chart going back to 80https://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/KWN-Turk-I-10242016-1024x748.jpg  beautiful cup and handle   this is really big picture stuff.  

not going to argue gold does have a cup and handle it also has an inverse H&s pattern which indicates the lows are in. and breaking above the neckline activates the pattern . its all in place the market just has to get on its horse and ride out of this big base

to build a skyscraper you need a big foundation gold has that  and so does silver

dharma

[senorBS]

 

Now turning attention to Gold for a minute....

 

GLD has a MASSIVE multi-year cup w handle formation.

 

128 is the equivalent of the SLV 15.70 pivot for GLD.

IF it climbs out of this hole and manages an hourly close above 128, then it will likely join in on upside explosion.

 

But until then, there is still risk that the spike on April 11 was a top, so would not get too aggressively long before 128 is actually taken out.

 

Hopefully Silver is leading the way upside, and not GLD leading down.

 

In any event, they should "sync up" soon I would imagine, and ber ased on SLV chart and the big cup w handle on GLD, methinks UP is a reasonable guess....just waiting on price to confirm.

here is a silver  chart going back to 80https://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/KWN-Turk-I-10242016-1024x748.jpg  beautiful cup and handle   this is really big picture stuff.  

not going to argue gold does have a cup and handle it also has an inverse H&s pattern which indicates the lows are in. and breaking above the neckline activates the pattern . its all in place the market just has to get on its horse and ride out of this big base

to build a skyscraper you need a big foundation gold has that  and so does silver

dharma

 

totally agree on Silver, given where we are price wise risk/reward appears really good, and this weeks gap higher and so far sustained breakout above $17, and the 2 1/2  month potential island bottom makes the current action VERY interesting and IMO worth being long as I am. 

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Senor, gold has dropped  these last few days and closed Friday at spot $1335. Is there a price level that if gold dropped to would cause you to reevaluate the short/medium bullish outlook?  I'm thinking a close below 1333 is a danger sign and below 1319 the immediate outlook is no longer bullish. 

[senorBS]

Dharma, what we have talked about (stagflation and rising rates) for months and even a few years appears to finally be unfolding, this past week saw some critical things happened IMO. CRB with what appears a major breakout above 200, suggesting a massive advance is underway, and then we saw TNX on Friday register the highest yields since late 2013, and silver potentially registered a key breakout as well (check out the SLV volume!). Nice week for miner relative strength vs gold as well, another developing good sign - HUI/Gold ratio daily chart moving up nicely off multi-yr lows I have highlighted and weeklies finally look to be turning higher as well!. There are NO guarantees and I am not yet in an aggressive stance in the miners/gold/silver with a 40% long position. But IMO this is where the big picture risk/reward is so attractive that one needs to be willing to take some risk and keep a core long even if there is some near term downside action - IMO the intermediate and long term potential upside is large. And I personally don't think there is much downside risk at this time in the miners or metals. Helluva week and I will be looking to accumulate on some near term weakness "if" we get it.

 

BSing away

 

Senor