1565 replies to this topic

[dharma]

 

agree w/you gann man and kwave.  my take is when you see these long tails or wicks. it shows big selling into the resistance areas. they are well defended  i think we now test the lows, and guessing, we break 1300 demoralize the bulls and then start up in earnest.  the move up does not look impulsive, and does not resemble a wave 3 . this down move should not last long ,into early may and then the impulsive wave up begins. the dollar looks like it needs one more rally to finish its pattern. so a falling dollar w/a rising gold price. 

patience and we are not talking about months here. days to weeks . 

this and the bus fare will get you on the bus fwiw

dharma 

the last peak coincided w/the end of buying for the indian festival

so  no immediate catalyst

the bond market has a large h&s top ! 

Dharma, that could very well happen, however it would not surprise me that its just plain ugly and whether its 3 up or 5 up given the huge basing pattern we may not have anything impulsive until it really lets loose norte. Interest rates up again today to major new new highs, dollar new recovery highs since recent intermediate term low (may be ending double zigzag off lows), CRB testing from above 200 breakout area. another key juncture. NEM, AEM, GDX all currently down less than 1%, lets see how we close

 

Senor

agree the base is sloppy. and i believe the start of this move will be stealth forcing folks to chase.   here is one patternwatching https://www.tradingview.com/x/d2WmDEV9/  could find support at the fib or downtrend line if it gets more severe, if there are no catalysts.   i bought the december lows and have traded around that.  i dont want to get to cute, i do believe we are close to launching. 

dharma

[EHW]

Todays DSI: gold 46, silver 34, hard to imagine a crash down from these levels, especially in silver.

[senorBS]

extremely oversold with divergences across many of the 1-12 hr technical gauges, at least a decent bounce here and note the decline from recent highs is a 3 step structure so far, CRB so far holds 200 support area and is a 3-step decline "so far", and da beat goes on

 

Senor

[dharma]

since 1of 3 off the december lows occurred, the market can be counted as a series of 1.2,1-2, i-ii s  , w/this downmove as part of that structure. it seems to me the resolution will be signaled w/a move over 128.5 on the gld. on a close basis. the dollar  is overbought http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USDno divergences . so a topping pattern needs to  be revealed. there. since we have chopped around these levels for awhile now , butter to let the market tip its hand and wait for the 128.5 to be taken out.  i am in a comfortable position.  so waiting is no problem.  i believe resolution will come in may and i am open to it coming soon.  as we have been saying the market has built a big foundation over the last few years.  from big foundations come big sustainable moves.  we have experienced many capitulations in the sector. the market has moved into strong hands. when you  see main banksters like jamie dimon talk about the growing inflation over the next year, it is an alert to fund managers. 

miners will move from hated to loved.  patience

dharma

[K Wave]

Starting to look like back test of broken downtrend line on SLV has held.

 

30 min close over 15.75, and could be off to the races again....

[senorBS]

Starting to look like back test of broken downtrend line on SLV has held.

 

30 min close over 15.75, and could be off to the races again....

I view yesterdays silver hammering as "perhaps" the final big TREE SHAKING event - the bears last stand if you will. They tried to massively stomp silver after its breakout and I think it comes back fairly quickly - my take FWIW. CRB back up to 201.50 area and ABX EARNINGS the market seems to like a good bit so nice earnings season kickoff there. and da beat goes on

 

Senor

[gannman]

from what i am seeing we have one more drop in gdxj. then if and when it takes out 

 

34.5 we should be in wave 3 . we will see right now its just a theory

[gannman]

and the action should be dynamic to the upside if and when it does the above

 

not this choppy back and forth stuff we have been experiencing 

[gannman]

just to be clear i still expect the time around may 9 to be the final low for wave 2 then i want to see it trade 

 

rapidly above 34.5 

[tradesurfer]

Hey guys, dont you see the dollar spiking higher and quickly ?

 

Rates look like they want to surge higher and fast, isnt that dollar supportive?  And the fed May raise rates in May before the June meeting which would really spook the metals...

 

Armstrong is saying dollar spike higher makes the rest of the world default on their debts first, then we are the last to default and thats when the dollar crashes down.. but first it will spike up he says and cause gold investors to panic sell at a spike bottom.