1565 replies to this topic

[dougie]

sure looks like a large wave down in US equities has started..suportive of miners or not I cant say

[K Wave]

Ugly night for Silver...

 

That failure to get anything going yesterday mighta been it for da bulls...

It is possible this is just a restest of the washout snapback low, but something may be afoot in currency land...

In any event, not touching it long now, until much lower prices, or an hourly close over 16.65.

 

EURUSD looks like it is getting more serious about going over the edge, after massive battle at weekly 900 MA....

 

CHF gettin' absolutely pounded, and now looks looks like USDCHF has made massive floor recapture on a longer term look at things...if it nows move back over 1.00, will be hard not to look at that as the start of a longer term decline in swissy...

[senorBS]

adding a few aggressive trading positions this mornin. tight stops in these, as always DYODD

 

Senor

[senorBS]

Ugly night for Silver...

 

That failure to get anything going yesterday mighta been it for da bulls...

It is possible this is just a restest of the washout snapback low, but something may be afoot in currency land...

In any event, not touching it long now, until much lower prices, or an hourly close over 16.65.

 

EURUSD looks like it is getting more serious about going over the edge, after massive battle at weekly 900 MA....

 

CHF gettin' absolutely pounded, and now looks looks like USDCHF has made massive floor recapture on a longer term look at things...if it nows move back over 1.00, will be hard not to look at that as the start of a longer term decline in swissy...

lots of technical divergences on 1-12 hr technical s at very oversold levels with the marginal new lows in gold and silver just below yesterdays lows.Looks like a good case for another near term bottom IMO which is why I bot a few aggressive trading positions with tight stops. I could be dead wrong here but so far I like the potential for a low here, take a look at the early spike lows in key stocks like AEM and NEM in the very early action and the reversals back up, we see and key day here IMO

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 25 April 2018 - 09:01 AM.

[senorBS]

Dharma, it appears to me we are in a major transitory phase where markets are adjusting to the developing stagflation as rates rise. Now what we (you especially) have talked about for a long while of rising rates AND rising gold/silver and commodities in general. Look at where XOP and XLE and oil are today with the recent sharp drop in the Dow and general market - IMO the readjustments are happening before our eyes. I can't know that gold and silver might still have some modest downside left, but I like the miner action in general "so far". Probably the market I am most unsure about here is the dollar, we have had periods where the dollar and metals rise together, we'll see if a large DXY corrective rally is ending in this area or a more important low was seem.

 

BSing away

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 25 April 2018 - 09:31 AM.

[senorBS]

One more thing in GOLD, from the March 20 low near 1307 (orthodox low IMO) we could have had 5 up to March 20 high near 1357 - then wave "a" down to 1319 on April 5th, a wave "b" rally to 1365 on April 11 and this morning we "might" be ending 5 down for wave "c" of an "irregular" correction with the low just below 1319. We should know relatively soon if this count is correct as we should rally strongly soon - start going below 1315 area and odds increase we are heading toward 1300 or lower. KEY action here

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Yeah, today's spot gold low 1318.8 looks like make or break for near term bullish case.

I agree w/ your count Senor, good job  lol

[dharma]

yesterday cat, mmm, and kmb  reported . all said their profits are being squeezed by rising commodity prices.  sounds like the 70s to me.  the fed had taken interest rates to near 0 , when a recession hits they need to have room to lower rates, so we are in the rising rates phase.  as is their mo, they will be behind the curve.  volcker was behind the curve and he was relentless in his rising rates. it wasnt rising rates or volcker that killed the silver/gold bull . it was the commercials and exchange members were short the market . so the rules changed . no buying of silver allowed.  well that ended that bull.  i know i have stated this before , more than once.  my hope is when you see only blue skies w/in the next 5 years , this reminder will come into focus and you will say enough thank you i am out

    it was announced that russia bought 300k oz of gold in march pushing their stash to near 2000tons. the fed is trapped, they need to normalize rates.  

right in here its a tough call very short term i am sitting on my hands and waiting. there are hourly divergences in 9bar rsi in gld/slv /gdx/gdxj  either we get footing here (senors count) or we test the lows then 1300 . this is a time when traders get chopped to minced meat.  its the runs where the money is made . when you listen to jamie dimon talk about inflation is coming and gs  wrote that “the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger.” The bank recommends an overweight position, estimating that commodities will yield at least 10 percent over the next 12 months, with most of the gains being made by crude oil and aluminum.   this is an environment that will be very supportive for higher gold prices

dharma

Edited by dharma, 25 April 2018 - 10:48 AM.

[senorBS]

Yeah, today's spot gold low 1318.8 looks like make or break for near term bullish case.

I agree w/ your count Senor, good job  lol

made an error, it was supposed to read "5 up to the March 26 high at 1357"

 

Senor

[dougie]

adding a few aggressive trading positions this mornin. tight stops in these, as always DYODD
 
Senor

You are amazing:always able to add right where even a fail will get you out safely
Your posts always include dyodd for a good reason
You might also add: warning, following me might cause whiplash type injuries