127 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Just to expand on last post:

ST - my system is fairly neutral as said, I don't have a high odds risk/reward setup either direction right here - I call this 'observe/stalk  mode'.

Daily Swing as said, I have weak buy - I don't trade swings ..just use as context for ST signal.

IT - I do not see a buy setup, and resolution to get a buy will high odds require at least one more down swing 'at some point'.

 

On my system, TIME can be as important as PRICE, well the Price-time combination.

Right here - we are in a key decision window (time/price) for St and swing -

 - the more time we spend churning up here in the 2680-2690 decision zone, without breakout out today, the more it leans the ST signals bearish.

 

If we do breakout above 2690-2700, then I will have to see how signals setups.

 

Today/tomorrow sessions are critical for my Swing/IT pattern setups...if we fail to breakout above 2700, then high odds then, it will be a bearish setup,

at least St, but I can see a 5-15 day swing churn developing here in another ranging move, but, first lets observe today/tomorrow for critical information.

 

* If I had to 'guess' here today, I slightly lean to a long churn up at the  highs, that fails near the close, and drop tomorrow ..but kinda of 55/45 odds, not odds i'd take.

 

I will start new ST road map thread when I get a new ST setup.

 

Also FWIW comments from blog over weekend on Swing/IT, and update yesterday

https://www.screencast.com/t/1RBrOjr2

 

I will post some Swing/IT charts, or maybe video of charts might be easier when I have time.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 09 May 2018 - 11:08 AM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - we just entered Step 2 - Triggered for sell, see this post for explanation.

http://www.traders-t...d-map/?p=782523

 

A sell off under 2692* wd likely move us to step 3 - Early warning sell.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 09 May 2018 - 01:29 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Now @ step 3 - early warning sell -  a strong swing uptrend will easily ignore this ..and move to much higher highs into the close.

But if we drop under 2692 ..first KP then likely its not an strong uptrend (which is my expectation)

Edited by Entropy3.0, 09 May 2018 - 02:23 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Now @ step 3 - early warning sell -  a strong swing uptrend will easily ignore this ..and move to much higher highs into the close.

But if we drop under 2692 ..first KP then likely its not an strong uptrend (which is my expectation)

 

Tested 2692, and held ...so tomorrow will exit the decision window - 

either we gap up/and or/run up right over KP 2710 tomorrow, really ought to be a 50-100pt up day OR

 - i'll get ST sell setup, which means swing up is weak and will high odds top out again here.

 

So very important open/AM action tomorrow.

[Waver]

Based on what you say, no sell off overnight? Should hold here or gap up in the morning? Then evaluate....

[EntropyModel]

Based on what you say, no sell off overnight? Should hold here or gap up in the morning? Then evaluate....

 

I'm saying if it's a strong uptrend, we will gap up and run again, usually 'jump the creek', which is this key 2700-2710 resistance.

If I was swing long from much lower, I personally wd  be holding to see the AM action. 

 

On the flip side, if it does NOT jump the creek, then I am looking for  ST sell signal setup, where I wd be exiting swing long or taking profits.

 

Position wise  I am flat - so, am just waiting to see the open to make decision.

 

My expectation has been this is a weak swing up that will top out 2700-2720 max. Tomorrow, maybe into monday should go along way to answer that on my system.

A gap up and run tomorrow above 2720 that holds into the close wd indicate that my expectation is wrong. so then i'll need to look at ST signal in that context  (swing uptrend)

and not 'weak swing/range' as I have been.

 

That said - today proved nothing for the IT bull case - we are still range bound until 2720 is closed above, but bulls 'have the ball' , for now 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 09 May 2018 - 03:53 PM.

[Waver]

Aahh I understand more clearly now
Thanks

And I do agree 100%
if it's a strong uptrend, we will gap up and run again, usually 'jump the creek', which is this key 2700-2710 resistance.

[Waver]

Looking good to me - Go Long

[Waver]

Go More Long I should say lol

[EntropyModel]

Yes, gap and run - my Liquidity signal is off the charts here which is main reason, market is 95% driven by lq at the moment.

Infact, market 'shd' be alot higher than it is based on LQ - so alot of resistance here.

The drop in Volatility is showing this as well.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 10 May 2018 - 10:34 AM.