Member
Posted 15 May 2018 - 08:37 AM
Nice ! gap down to target.
So now just have to see if it holds 2700 - really, the bullish setup ( for run to 2750 to complete swing) must hold 2710' but 2700 is the KP.
( below that, I don't see another runup and swing has turned down as said).
Edited by Entropy3.0, 15 May 2018 - 08:47 AM.
Member
Posted 15 May 2018 - 09:02 AM
Signals are not supportive of 2700 holding - so my read is swing has turned down here.
The Liquidity signal has also turned down - which was the main support for the move.
But for a confirmed swing sell - must drop under 2700.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 15 May 2018 - 09:04 AM.
Member
Posted 15 May 2018 - 10:32 AM
Bearish pattern here - I'm looking for us to break that 2700 KP today, may take until after 12:30pm but we shd NOT go
back into that gap above or something else is going on ...wd indicate then this 'swing down' is corrective and likely shallow.
* FYI note, text in grey background is from my trading blog, it just shows like this when I copy/paste it, no idea why or how to remove it
* also massive amount of 'dip' buying here this AM on my signals its starting to end now, market hasn't bounce much so indicates bots
are selling into it to me. That is more subjective read, but, there is also a pattern to it ( I call BF patterns short of Bot footprint) as
said a move down to 2690's wd confirm that BF sell pattern.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 15 May 2018 - 10:35 AM.
Member
Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:20 AM
I'm surprised we didn't take out 2700 yesterday, the LQ signal has dropped and usually that wd take SPX with it ..but maybe OPEX effect here.
OPEX usually screw with ST signals enough I rarely trade it wed-fri.
That said, the action still looks to me the swing is topping out, or topped out, unless we goto new highs today and recapture the parabolic path.
Ideally we stay below the gap down of yesterday, and eventually take out 2700 to confirm it, but as said OPEX may alter the timing, path somewhat
so i'm less confident than usual of timing/path.
Member
Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:31 AM
Well my OPEX lack of confidence is justified ...
My original setup was drop to 2715, bounce to 2750..swing top.
Then the LQ dropped, the pattern intraday was bearish and we tested cascade KP2700 and looked like failed ..but held.
So now - we're in a sort of no mans land between those two setup - and with it being OPEX..as said I don't have high confidence of ST,
but I do still lean we are topping out on the swing.
Member
Posted 17 May 2018 - 08:52 AM
Member
Posted 17 May 2018 - 10:40 AM
Gap has been closed and cumulative breadth continues on with new all time highs.
Looking bullish?
Depends on timeframe, but my system is putting higher odds the swing is topping out here with 2750 max upside this week than ready to breakout and turn the IT trend up.
Action has been typically OPEXY ...once that is out the way, I expect we'll make a move down next week. How far though, is hard to say, possibly
after a drop we get another bullish run but I do not see a run at the ATH as high odds currently.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 17 May 2018 - 10:40 AM.
Member
Posted 17 May 2018 - 10:21 PM
Interesting
Thanks, I think :-)
Bare in mind - my system has highest confidence over the 1 hour to say 8 hour time period, and perversely the IT, but the least
confidence over the daily swing timeframe in terms of turns. Why that is would take some 'splainin, but I cd boil it down to
the fact that most retail traders seem to be 'swing minded', and so efficient markets + nature of markets ( da boyz target retail)
mean that is the timeframe that has the most 'games' played and breaking of patterns, setups, signals.
So I generally only have a high confidence on Swing turns At or post turn, its relatively low confidence to 'predict' a swing turn.
The 1 to 8 hour timeframe is what I look to trade, and occasionally take a longer position on the IT, and use the ST to hedge it where necessary.
Now, there are a few periods where the ST is lower confidence - like this week - OPEX, also FED days.
Right now - I wd put IT as 'ranging', it's not clearly up or down. On the IT I have an IT setup for a turn window down over next 1-3 trading sessions, if that doesn't occur then the IT is more bullish.
- I wd put the Swing UP - as said, i do believe its topping out but that is based on ST signals + IT, and lower confidence until/if 2700 is broken as i've said numerous times.
- ST ( which I define at 1 to 8 hours'ish)..its OPEx, so forget it ..but, I do believe 2750 will be resistance and we will take out 2700 before chance of Swing up resuming.
Once we get out of OPEX I hope to get some clear setups next week.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 17 May 2018 - 10:32 PM.
