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Posted 18 May 2018 - 09:37 AM
Very ST - there is a pattern setup for drop to 2690 in quick order today.
Odds increase if we take out 2705.
IF we reach 2690 it potentially is important KP for swing to either resume up, or bounce/then fail.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 18 May 2018 - 09:41 AM.
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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:34 PM
HEADS UP - Actually, I think we are approaching a VERY important Bifurcation here likely by End of Today.
I'm expecting we drop into the close no matter what - if we bounce, that wd be sort of good because it will mean the bifurcation
won't be at the close today...and I hate that, with Sunday night globex gaps.
IF we do as expected drop ..its going to be important WHERE we close ...i'll say more last hour IF we are setting up.
the Bifurcation is on the Swing or even IT degree - so, a BIG move can come UP or DOWN from it.
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Posted 18 May 2018 - 04:02 PM
Yeah - I wd describe that close as DEVILISH ...I will have to wait the Sunday night lottery and monday open for a firmer view
as a 20pt big gap up/down cd change things dramatically.
A drop under 2690 I believe swing is done and will drop hard ..OTH
A gap over 2735 has a chance to kick off new Swing up leg.
Hopefully, we don't gap ..and now OPEX is over I can get better ST read monday before a big move.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 18 May 2018 - 04:02 PM.
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Posted 18 May 2018 - 05:23 PM
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Posted 19 May 2018 - 03:03 PM
This market should have been trending strongly upward after breaking through what seem to be the upper boundary of a 3+ month triangle. And yet it has completely stalled. Breadth has hang in there however.
Looking back at this area can be considered as some sort of test of the breakout or rest before launching higher.
Your idea of a gap Monday letting us know the direction makes a lot of sense.
I guess time will tell.
When the market doesn't do what we believe it 'should', there are logically only two possibilities:
1. The expectations were based on faulty assumptions
2. The assumption were correct AT THE TIME, but 'something' has changed.
My view remains as its been, that we are in a ranging type market, just not the range of the triangle some traders have decided it is.
Monday is important and I can see a drop/then secondary swing up to 2750 if 2690 holds, but I still don't
expect a 'breakout' (strong IT trend) move here even in that setup based on 'assumptions' of my system, which could also be wrong of course.
I try to avoid discussing the why's but my main system assumption is that liquidity is more important than any other factor in this market currently,
and its low odds on my LQ signals that the liquidity needed to produce a run at ATH will exist in the near future, so I expect a continued difficult ST
trend type market. Infact, the market HAD a ton of LQ last week, and didn't manage to breakout - maybe OPEX actually prevented that?
monday-tue will provide many answers.
Sentiment has also made a huge shift to bullish side here - I look at alot of data, and its clear. Look at latest bear reading on AAII, and
I follow several confirming data showing the same. I also follow put/call and Rydex real money data showing the same. Though note, I
don't believe sentiment is that important compared to LQ in this market, but its a problem for the breakout because rarely are retail
allowed to load up on the 'bull bus' before it leaves the station.(it does happen, but only when market is under tidal wave of liquidity, which its not now)
Technically, the market as you mention is internally trending up - i.e. summations, breadth, etc ...but , my signals show it is topping out there also
for at least a pause.
My view is this is more a ST traders market still in 2018, than a trend traders, and more 'frustration' is likely ahead for weeks and likely months.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 May 2018 - 03:17 PM.
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Posted 19 May 2018 - 07:13 PM
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Posted 20 May 2018 - 11:56 AM
Cumulative Volume and Stock breadth are rolling along at all time highs.
Your signals are indicating a reversal coming.
These indicators are not liquidity based?
Liquidity i'm referring to the $ about to come INTO the market.
Volume/breadth show where liquidity has already GONE into - past tense, not the liquidity that is about to go INTO stocks.
It's a bit like the relationship of money supply to consumer demand - we can look at volume of consumer purchases as a proxy for money supplied, but
it doesn't give the whole picture, and it does't tell you about money just gone into banks accounts consumers are about to use for purchases.
My liquidity signals are putting it low odds the $ coming in will be able to produce a strong trending move up to ATH right now as i've said for sometime. Of course, that relies then those LQ
signals being correct, and the signals could change but that how the stand right now.
There certainly as said is scope for a run to 2750 area however, but 2690 I believe must hold.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 20 May 2018 - 12:05 PM.
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Posted 20 May 2018 - 01:33 PM
I can't show most of my LQ stuff, but here is a couple of LQ indicators I can that show why I'm looking for it to start to drop again here.
I think the signals are fairly self explanatory.
https://www.screenca...om/t/v94PwmL7h4
https://www.screenca.../t/4x82wu7sq1dI
Edited by Entropy3.0, 20 May 2018 - 01:34 PM.
Member
Posted 21 May 2018 - 02:16 PM
Yeah - I wd describe that close as DEVILISH ...I will have to wait the Sunday night lottery and monday open for a firmer view
as a 20pt big gap up/down cd change things dramatically.
A drop under 2690 I believe swing is done and will drop hard ..OTH
A gap over 2735 has a chance to kick off new Swing up leg.
Hopefully, we don't gap ..and now OPEX is over I can get better ST read monday before a big move.
So we did gap sort of over 2735 ( with AM runup) ..on 'news' 
but didn't didn't follow through.
To be honest this market is a mess right here on ST moves ...wild gyrations messing up St signals a bit ...
I said a gap over 2735 could kick off new Swing leg up , but to me this doesn't look like it ..more like the Swing topping out phase i've talked about.
Maybe we still tag 2750 and close that gap.
I will rarely say this but ST is uncallable at least for my system here, too many if/but's so just a case of waiting for price and other data to produce a clearer setup.
It 'feels' like compression to me, so, possibly a big move coming this week.
* The ONE St thing I shd add - if we drop into the gap on SPX last 30mins, that is more ST bearish, and I cd even see a gap down island reversal tomorrow
whereas if gap holds into close, or runup into close, I expect more b.s. toward that 2750 gap close.
Edited by Entropy3.0, 21 May 2018 - 02:31 PM.
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Posted 21 May 2018 - 04:41 PM
Thanks for the info over the weekend. It certainty looks like compression! The DOW mad e anew high but the SP500 and Nasdaq did not. Maybe they get the late movement up thrust and then it reverses.........
