127 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Signal wise - I'm starting to see more things in the Bearish column on the Swing/IT, some key signals I watch are 'very close' to giving sells here.

 

ST - its difficult, but there is a setup pattern for a swing top here.

It's easier to show on the COMP than the Spx/Dow, and i'll explain why and what to look for there.

 

https://www.screenca.../t/gDvsr8AL5F97

 

For the Dow ...i'd expect a weaker move, falling short of the swing highs....

The SPX 'could' spike into that 2740-2750 gap or fall short, its harder to say but looks to me to fall short here. 

This pattern ties into the daily above and we start move on SPX to 2690.

 

Timing wise that wd mean we top out  Tue/Wed next week. ( marked closed monday for Memorial Day).

Edited by Entropy3.0, 25 May 2018 - 10:27 AM.

[Waver]

Today's actions makes me this scenario.  Def a possibility for sure.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - My Short Term LQ signal has taken a tumble finally today, the LQ has in my belief  as said been holding market up ...but infact, market

has held up quite well despite drop in ST LQ .... but, we are at point on the setups where a 'surprise' drop could come anytime here now,

especially in last hour.   In that instance, Comp will like make that 'one last runup' but also only reach a truncated Swing top short of ideal targets.

* likely coinciding with a initial bounce on Dow/SPX from a drop under 2700. I wd move the drop target on daily to 2660 in that case for next week.

 

btm line - market looks weak to me, and cd weaken alot last hour if the ST LQ signal stays where it is now.

The Long term LQ is as I've said this week 'rolling over' and today cd finally begin a more definite drop.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 25 May 2018 - 01:45 PM.

[EntropyModel]

For the Swing - there is also THIS setup I fancy will play out -  I won't call it a 'head and shoulders' because the H&S police will be onto me to pointing out about various reasons it isn't :-)

But its a Short term version of the same price setup, call it whatever you want but it often plays out, and amounts to same thing, and hence the 2660 target.

That is a minimum, because it can extend.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/9c049enN

 

* for those that love waves - u cd consider it a wave iv, then truncated vth 

** Rut has put in a bearish Swing reversal pattern as well here if its drops under 1610, I'm not a big follower of RUT but I keep an eye on whats' leading, lagging and any important price patterns.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 25 May 2018 - 02:06 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Lks good - 

 - comp tried one last up attempt per the green path this AM , looks now to be in final throws ..with Dow weakest as expect, SPX also.

https://www.screenca...om/t/aPWmjwS3Fl

 

When Comp finally gives it up, spx will finally break under KP 2690 ..and put high odds the setups i've given above so I won't repeat.

So comp taking out today's AM low is high odds going to lead to that breakdown, though, more bounce attempts are likely.

 

Beyond that I think it gets complicated, and I did some charts to discuss but not had time ..doubt I will today maybe tomorrow.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 May 2018 - 10:36 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Boom - nice.

 

About 50% time we'll backtest 2705 ...but once below 2680 that is low odds.

 

This infact could be quite a sharp move down given the LQ signal and setup.

[claire]

Thanks for the updates, Entropy.

[EntropyModel]

Your welcome Claire.

 

So we got the attempted backtest of 2700 of 2680 ...looks to have failed already, though need a lower intraday low to confirm.

 

On my system that will confirm the SWING is now DOWN - because we

1 - took out the Swing KP 2690 (as i've talked about for some time)

2 - got ST buy signal at 2680 ...which has then failed - failing ST signals are always in direction of next higher trend in this case the Swing.

 

This is more bearish as well if we drop under 2678 (intrday low), because ST LQ turned up, when prices are weak relative to the ST LQ that is bearish generally

and ST LQ is like to by flat or drop this afternoon.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 May 2018 - 01:21 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I try to focus on the ST signals/setup I have in this thread - but, at various points the  IT trend even the bull/bear cycle trend are relevant, this 

is one of those times here.

 

I was hoping to go over the following longer term setup charts - and will look to do it tomorrow now the ST setups have executed as expected.

 

Now, please be aware, the devil is somewhat in the detail, and I will have to make a video or two to explain the detail ..these charts are general

 a high level overview. 

 

This copied from my blog over weekend with a few comments - 

PLease be aware that this is labelled in wave counts but

1. I don't strickly follow Elliot Wave labelling - I prefer to use SIZE of labelsl to indicate degree because EW labels frankly suck and uneccessarily complicated.

2. Wave counts contain no inherent information about the future, they are NOT predictive, a mistake so many make - what they do is help define the most

likely bullish and bearish road maps ...and there is AWALYS a bullish and bearish setup as here.

 

Here are the 3 charts, I might think of another one, but these counts have been in my mind since April and nothing has changed them, so that's
usually good indication they are on right track.

>> There is no 'right count' - ALL are RIGHT - they are all valid ...eventually price will select one but we are not there yet. 

The 'bullish' one ...of sorts..likely lead to truncation short of ATH on some indexes ...we saw infact this exact waveform in year 2000 if
you want to look for a comparison.
- this wd be pretty horrible, as be months of complex choppy actions ( see year 2000)
www.screencast.com/t/CKWdd6vqV9

The IT bearish one ...
www.screencast.com/t/NacIuamOlcym

The really bearish one 
www.screencast.com/t/ZjitGaon3f


DO I favor one of these? not really... the next swing move might change that ...but until price does 'something' to rule out one, I believe all 3 are equally

valid where I sit right now. Ultimately though, the 1st and 3rd are extremely bearish long term, only the 2nd (AB ..C down ) is 'bullish' at least into 2019.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 May 2018 - 01:31 PM.

[EntropyModel]

We did NOT get the confirmation today of Swing trend down -  because we did not take out the intraday low 2678 again.

 

However, my EOD Swing signals ( different to the intraday system) has gone to SELL - so, high odds,  we will get a break

of 2678 either tomorrow or next couple of days high odds.   2660 as posted above is the min target - it will 'depend' beyond

that as the situation remains 'quite complicated' and ranging type market. There is though, a possibility of another volatility

event like February, but that is not a consideration at this point - unless 2640 is lost, then it becomes a high odds setup.

 

Bears 'have the ball' now, and they need to do some technical damage because this market will swing back to bullish side.

If the damage is limited to 2660, there's still a chance to runup to 2800+ over summer, but if that level is lost, my setups/signals

put that then low odds, and i'll discuss that along with wave patterns I posted maybe tomorrow if time allows.

 

It was very obvious and noticable how sentiment spiked heavily bullish on the price break above 2700,  I commented on this and why it

was unlikely we cd continue up ..and now, with the break back down, literally dead silence - so we likely will need a spike

in bearishness to get a swing low or a sustainable move up so that is important to keep an eye on. For example the

equity put/call has been running amazingly low every day for over week on my signals, Rydex data shows quite extreme bullish to beariness etc

So those are two signals I am watching closely here.

 

There were some notable moves, signals today - 

BKX - very ugly breakdown

TLT/TNX - bonds got a big bid - perhaps contrary to some, sucking $ away from stocks ..that is actually though more 'normal'.

TRIN - was high, but was high fri before the move down.

CAC -  maybe have completed an important top ..like then FTSE, DAX as well...might have implications as per wave counts I posted 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 May 2018 - 10:21 PM.