678 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

Speaking of up moves.  Silver is showing a wee bit of strength this am.  A welcome sight for me as I bought SILJ this past Friday.  Will see what happens with that. 

[Smithy]

Sunday night gold at $1390 - looks like gold might be starting an intermediate correction, while stocks head to da moon.

 

I withdraw this call - there is a fair chance on the hourly chart with the overnight low in gold that A = C and up she goes. At least the stoploss is obvious.

[Smithy]

Saturday July 6th review - spot gold $1399    silver $14.97

 

Gold remains over bought, and due for a return to the general area of $1364 neckline of the 5 year base for a "goodbye kiss".

 

Seasonals point to a low during July and then up for the rest of the year. The COTs are not updated this week (4th holiday) but generally the comms short position while large is pretty much offset by matching longs, so it is of no consequence.

 

For me, the gold EW counts are ambiguous depending on what degree you assign different waves. But silver is a clear 3 waves up on the daily chart, seems reasonable to expect another upleg to make 5. 

 

I lean towards a $50-80 gold rally then steep drop into a low in 2-3 weeks, but the down move could possibly be starting now.

I have a modestly long trading position with tight stops.

 

Comments welcome.

Edited by Smithy, 06 July 2019 - 12:26 PM.

[hhh]

Smithy, I think your scenario would be perfect to disillusion longs. Also, we seem to be in some kind of a 4 in gold right now which means a shot to 1450 or 1480 is quite likely before a more significant retrace. Although we might dip below 1385 first. The firmness yesterday in gold stocks indicates to me that gold is going up from here.

Edited by hhh, 06 July 2019 - 12:55 PM.

[Smithy]

Good post, hhh. I missed the HUI bullish divergence against gold.

[senorBS]

Smithy, I think your scenario would be perfect to disillusion longs. Also, we seem to be in some kind of a 4 in gold right now which means a shot to 1450 or 1480 is quite likely before a more significant retrace. Although we might dip below 1385 first. The firmness yesterday in gold stocks indicates to me that gold is going up from here.

I agree, looks like we should now or soon be entering a wave 5 in most stuff and then perhaps have a significant correction

 

Senor

[Smithy]

I'll max out my longs if gold kisses spot 1280 and bale from the whole trading position not much below there.

Make or break.

[tradesurfer]

Gee, maybe this is what will really get the gold party started:

 

52 trading days left until Mid September.   Mid September is the strongest seasonality kick start

 

https://www.bloomber...n-policy-center

 

http://www.equityclo...seasonal-chart/

[Smithy]

Adding to longs on the pullback to spot 1413

[hhh]

I think we may be a little frothy here and need a bigger pullback. I see a possible 3-3-5 forming in GDX needing the "5" down to start now.

Edited by hhh, 11 July 2019 - 08:47 AM.