254 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

So essentially (1) or (3) calls for another 50 to 100 at a bare minimum from here, right?

Still any preference for just 50-100 (1) or crash (3) below 2300 from here?

 

Not really - I just will look at my system in real time and try to discern ....I can't predict, no one can ...all we can do as traders

is look at highest odds setups on the known facts i.e. price, signals now ...and then, see where they are if/when we reach say 2300.

I do also see a setup for panic under 2300, then V reversed intraday - so its only CLOSING under 2300 that wd put us more on (3).

 

At it stands now BTW- Wed is likely to be 'the day' - unless the idiots try something to stop it ..we shd finally washout and reverse

or close to it.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 December 2018 - 11:11 AM.

[Waver]

Thanks for taking time to respond.  Appreciate it.

[kaiser soze]

Scenario (3) alright.  Mini-crash, especially in Defensives i.e. Utilities, Real Estate, Staples and Telecom.  Also in Energy, which is not defensive.

 

Caught 20 SPX points on the way down early this morning from 2428, and another 30 points from 2380 to 2410.  Thank you - Secy Mnuchin and David Tepper !

 

Looks like Wave 3 of 3 will conclude either today or on Wednesday, like Entropy mentioned.

[EntropyModel]

Yep - grab ur popcorn and favourite xmas beverage guys&gals and relax tomorrow...but don't have a hang over Wednesday because it looks to be fairly epic, unless

the overlords decide to intervene, which will only delay it.

[kaiser soze]

I nibbled at the close today because my first set of targets were hit on price and breadth.  Quite small long positions however compared to my usual sizing because downside momentum is so strong.

[kaiser soze]

One more thing.  With each successive 2-3 % down day, the probability of some fund somewhere experiencing forced liquidation (due to prime brokers or internal risk controls), increases.  Viewed from this perspective, the continuous extreme oversold conditions might be the Market's way of stressing leveraged LARGE SPECULATORS (even the prudent, hedged ones) to the limit to find out their break point(s).  

[EntropyModel]

One more thing.  With each successive 2-3 % down day, the probability of some fund somewhere experiencing forced liquidation (due to prime brokers or internal risk controls), increases.  Viewed from this perspective, the continuous extreme oversold conditions might be the Market's way of stressing leveraged LARGE SPECULATORS (even the prudent, hedged ones) to the limit to find out their break point(s).  

 

Good point Kaiser ..probably we are seeing some of that already.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 December 2018 - 02:14 PM.

[Waver]

Entropy
Epic?
Meaning crash or that huge reversal?

[EntropyModel]

Entropy
Epic?
Meaning crash or that huge reversal?

 

As said, the panic capitulation leg down ...we've have selling but its totally normal, no down flash moves or uncontrolled stuff, we haven't even

had a big gap down, Trin is relatively low, Vix is low etc 

 

So Epic part 1 - is a 80-100+ down panic  in couple hours UNLESS as said they intervene on some pre-text, but I doubt it honestly, and it wd just delay it.

Epic part 2 - potentially we V reverse up the intraday low into 100+ pt bounce OR we don't, in which case that's puts us in setup (3) territory.

 

Assuming no intervention, if we don't get an epic day and instead more of the same MO ..i.e. overnight futures ramp up ....small up open or small gap down like today, more selling , more lame bounces...then this could be something much more ugly than I was expecting i.e.Primary wave 1 down  ...shd be able to tell over the next 3-5 sessions.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 December 2018 - 03:13 PM.

[Waver]

Thanks again Entropy!

Happy Holidays!