254 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Thanks again Entropy!

Happy Holidays!

 

Same to you Waver! and everyone else who celebrates 'anything' this time of year :-)

[EntropyModel]

 

Entropy
Epic?
Meaning crash or that huge reversal?

 

As said, the panic capitulation leg down ...we've have selling but its totally normal, no down flash moves or uncontrolled stuff, we haven't even

had a big gap down, Trin is relatively low, Vix is low etc 

 

So Epic part 1 - is a 80-100+ down panic  in couple hours UNLESS as said they intervene on some pre-text, but I doubt it honestly, and it wd just delay it.

Epic part 2 - potentially we V reverse up the intraday low into 100+ pt bounce OR we don't, in which case that's puts us in setup (3) territory.

 

Assuming no intervention, if we don't get an epic day and instead more of the same MO ..i.e. overnight futures ramp up ....small up open or small gap down like today, more selling , more lame bounces...then this could be something much more ugly than I was expecting i.e.Primary wave 1 down  ...shd be able to tell over the next 3-5 sessions.

 

 

so far ^this ..though the overnight ramp was bigger, looks to me there was some support from market makers at the open ..done now though. 

 

I wont' be able to post as much today/tomorrow - family staying & busy with my own trading etc.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 26 December 2018 - 10:08 AM.

[kaiser soze]

Kind of disturbing how financials are unable to catch a bid with a sector Mcllellan Oscillator of -198 (extreme oversold) on a day when all other sectors at least managed an opening bounce.

[EntropyModel]

Heads up - I wasn't going to comment today but I see strong hints of an intervention here, ST_LQ has turned sharply ...price conforms to 'potential reversal'..

we never finished the waterfall as per every other in history ..so this is likely a 'bounce' but it could be 'very large % wise'...

 

IF take out 2420 above, and or into close I see setup for big gap up and run

If we chop and take out 2390 into close...then I'd want to see tomorrow AM..cd collapse into massive new down leg.

 

In between 2390-2420 is just plain off the charts risky either way ...so probably they park is there just to make it extra fun.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 26 December 2018 - 01:48 PM.

[kaiser soze]

I think Big Gap down tomorrow no matter where they park it at today's close.  The action reeks of Big Players shorting the SPX 2420/QQQ 149.50 area.

 

But, on the other point, yes I too see bots back in a big way. 

[EntropyModel]

I think Big Gap down tomorrow no matter where they park it at today's close.  The action reeks of Big Players shorting the SPX 2420/QQQ 149.50 area.

 

But, on the other point, yes I too see bots back in a big way. 

 

I agree except the LQ signal has turned up -  I have a 'very short term sell' right here, EVERY BOUNCE has FAILED off it ...so, if 

we don't fail here...I suspect the bot's have enough LQ now, to produce their usual 'levitation act'.

 

I want to see the last hour....might add information here...

I'm looking at 2405 SPx cash as key pivot next hour ..if that goes, I see high odds a test of 2390-2395 which will be very important.

If they take out 2420 ..then 2430 is even more important KP ...above that, we have parabolic upmove setup.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 26 December 2018 - 03:00 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Yep ST LQ going parabolic up to allow support bots' to push us through resistance - all bets off here Very ST .....long term, I put very high odds

we make a lower low.

 

We may NOT gap up and run now since they already achieved the goal ...back sweeping a ton of shorts out, and 'restoring order' ..note drop in put/calls etc.

 

This no longer fits a reversal pattern on my system either - just a larger bounce...this is the very nasty 'creeper' pattern ...typical of bear market rallies,

but devil to trade either direction tbh as no normal retracements, and have to 'buy ur ST sells' ..tough to do in a waterfall decline lol

Edited by Entropy3.0, 26 December 2018 - 03:36 PM.

[Waver]

What a Major Rally!
I know bear market rallies are usually large.
But this is a whole other level.

[Waver]

Also great call on the parabolic move after 2430.

I sure hope that wasnt the end of the bear. Mainly in cash but has just some short down there still...

[kaiser soze]

Great call Entropy regarding acceleration following breach of 2420.  

 

3 of 3 clearly ended and we're in a wave 4 of some degree. This means a wave 5 down is pending. In light of the huge buying EOD, we might have an Inside Day tomorrow followed by a Big Gap Down Friday.  Another possibility (less likely IMO) is that we chop around until year end, and then drop big in the first week of 2019.