254 replies to this topic

[kaiser soze]

Thx Entropy - will watch ES 2300, perhaps 2340 even earlier than that, very closely.

 

In the last couple of months, I've wondered who the forces operating against what you term GSB are, and I have my guesses.  Reminded of Liam Neeson's Ra's Al Ghul in The Batman Rises - "When a forest grows too wild, a purging fire is inevitable and natural.......The movement back to harmony will be unstoppable this time.....Justice is Balance"

[EntropyModel]

Interesting info
Thank you for your insights
Much appreciated

 

Thx Waver.

 

As you use waves, I will add - we are either around wave iv of (3 or C) down with v down to come (that holds 2300, the 'normal' waterfall)( correctives here are

mostly 'running corrective' at the moment)

 

OR in series of i..ii..of 3 with iii of 3 to come this week ( the 'cascade waterfall' - possible 1 day 'flash move' 10% down day with large gap),

..iii of 3 gaps have gaps in symmetry( allowing target measurement from the gap), so we'd run approximately as far below the gap to find 'THE' low as above,

putting a low around Spx 1800-2000 depending on size of gap. ( unless LQ returns to 'save' market ..hence waves are never predictive, just probabilistic)

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 December 2018 - 10:58 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Thx Entropy - will watch ES 2300, perhaps 2340 even earlier than that, very closely.

 

In the last couple of months, I've wondered who the forces operating against what you term GSB are, and I have my guesses.  Reminded of Liam Neeson's Ra's Al Ghul in The Batman Rises - "When a forest grows too wild, a purging fire is inevitable and natural.......The movement back to harmony will be unstoppable this time.....Justice is Balance"

 

Yep.  Here's the short term setups I see around that I ( from my blog)

"1. We drop mon or wed to a LOW - 2300-2350 highest odds area.

OR
2. We bounce mon- or wed ..100-150pts ..likely after a lower low but maybe 2380-2400 area.
OR
3. We 'crash' ...maybe mon is just flatline sideways at the lows in that setup - wed wd be more likely day for crash.

I really don't favor one or other here - all are equal odds, I see very high odds a lower low before (2), giving a chance for get long for any significant up move.

If we do (2) - that is very bearish as well... that wd be the 2 legged (or more) waterfall setup...and the 2nd leg wd be wicked.

I have a strategy here - a specific setup intraday i'm watching for (2) ..to try to get aboard that move...it wd be a 3 day type up move, that gradually rolls over.

For (1) have to wait - likely few bounces ...so just sitting on hands being patient like last week.

For (3) well..I'd have to see it ...if it were 10% down day, that break 2300, i'd stay position short and look for same bounce setup as (2), but
if it were a 1987 type event ( which i highly doubt, unless PPT is told to stand asside.) then... I'd cover position short, look for a bounce setup, but
I think unlike 1987 that big bounce wd eventually roll over...this wd be hardest setup tbh."

 

 

I Like the quote, yep everything must find balance, and then, become unbalanced again ..is the nature of everything. 

Who the forces are -  same old same old as its always been ..the 'men behind the curtain' ...puppets on the stage just dance to their tune.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 December 2018 - 11:10 AM.

[kaiser soze]

Thanks again for your thoughts.  My scenarios are very similar, but I do have some favorites.

 

At Friday's close, I favored (2).  After reviewing a lot of charts this weekend, I strongly favor (3) and (1), but only on a closing basis (wild stuff can happen intraday). Among (3) and (1), I am partial to (3) but do not expect a MAJOR CRASH to conclude Wave 3, just a MINOR ONE i.e. the levels I'm looking for, are AAPL -140, QQQ - 140 ish, XLE - 52 ish, SMH - 75 to 78.

 

So, the plan is to wait to enter longs until there is some indication that the 3 of 3 decline has completed.  However, if there is a massive bounce due to (2), then I plan to buy Jan Puts in Tech, Energy and Financials.

[EntropyModel]

OK Thx Kaiser for ur setups.

 

I just looked over the LQ signal set, and  it appear LQ is bottoming, BUT, has not likely bottomed and has a very bearish setup next few days.

That leans me also against (2) as well - or at least as said without another drop first to align the Short Term LQ signal - there has not been

one bounce of any size without the ST_LQ being a buy, and right now its a sell. - when I say bounce, i mean multi hour - 50-100pts 

 

Hopefully ES tonight , and the cash open will add information to help narrow the odds on these setups. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 December 2018 - 12:52 PM.

[Waver]

Interesting in one post you mentioned we would be in a 4th wave of 3. This is exactly where I think we are at as well.

However your next post you kill that lol

You both (Entropy and Kaiser Soze) are better than me at this, so Im sure the 4th wave of 3 scenario wont play out.

Like you said, more info at futures open today and cash open tomorrow will tell the tale.

The one thing though we all agree on, the lows are not in by a long shot.

Thanks again!

[EntropyModel]

Interesting in one post you mentioned we would be in a 4th wave of 3. This is exactly where I think we are at as well.

However your next post you kill that lol

You both (Entropy and Kaiser Soze) are better than me at this, so Im sure the 4th wave of 3 scenario wont play out.

Like you said, more info at futures open today and cash open tomorrow will tell the tale.

The one thing though we all agree on, the lows are not in by a long shot.

Thanks again!

 

I'd say 4th of 3 is possible, if we hold 2380-2410 in the AM ..and bounce ... but the signals are NOT  'overly' supportive ( ST LQ) no...so, more likely

is (1) or even (3)....it cd still be 'iv..v .of 3' down..but an extended wave which will seem like a iii but isn't..and reverse hard up.

 

But I don't use waves for trading only my system signals - the waves just help to give idea of size of trends/reversal setups etc.

 

Now, by 'the low' do u mean, Swing up, IT low, or bear market low :-)  ...but yes we agree, none are in YET.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 December 2018 - 01:32 PM.

[EntropyModel]

High odds (1) or (3) as we thought - I have waterfall path map here..normally get a last weak bounce aruond here...20-30pts then

goes into final washout plunge.. or maybe Steve 'Mr GS' PPT comment will just take us straight into it. I'd say weak bounce wd have

to come above 2350 if its going to...and really aroudn here 2370'ish ...signals aren't great for it.

 

So much for my easy trading session half day, thx Steve!

[EntropyModel]

Yep - bounce right off 2370.

 

Shd not exceed say 2420'ish ..and chop around now into the close on that pattern setup, though, obviously, some variation

is going to occur.

[Waver]

So essentially (1) or (3) calls for another 50 to 100 at a bare minimum from here, right?

Still any preference for just 50-100 (1) or crash (3) below 2300 from here?