191 replies to this topic

[punter]

 

 

 

still see up movement into fri, 

 

- shorted gold 1520

- have 1 hsbc, 1 long sp and 1 dax from yesterday

 

waiting to add more

 

- open short gold in eur 1364

 

sp to test 2900, likely to fail. https://www.scmp.com...-us-china-talks

 

as i tot, no talks in sep. something stupid coming. trading tactic now is to keep thinking, how to be dumber.

 

took profit on euro gold short. still holding usd gold short

 

 

added to dax and sp long. think too early. will get out fast.

 

 

got out of dax sp fast. still keeping long for fri.

 

 

closed long usd gold. missed out on bigger profit. remaining longs paper loss now.

 

i dont see strength. until then i think this is a retrace.

Edited by punter, 15 August 2019 - 04:06 AM.

[punter]

i think my rationale for a bottom now is the 'dumb and dumber' trade. when the markets no long react to anymore stupid announcement, i know I have seen a bottom.

https://www.cnbc.com...us-tariffs.html

 

almost like magic. no bottom until all these stupid announcements end. it is all a charade, to mask the business cycle turn. but once we stop hearing these dumb news, we know the final turn is here.

[punter]

 

closed long usd gold. missed out on bigger profit. remaining longs paper loss now.

 

i dont see strength. until then i think this is a retrace.

 

 

added to sp long, short gold. still trading this retrace.

 

looking for 500 points jump on hang seng on monday. expect no or min violence in hk this weekend. foreign payments to rioters dried up. (white helmets in Syria; yellow helments in HK, see the similarity?)

Edited by punter, 15 August 2019 - 06:16 AM.

[punter]

 

 

closed long usd gold. missed out on bigger profit. remaining longs paper loss now.

 

i dont see strength. until then i think this is a retrace.

 

 

added to sp long, short gold. still trading this retrace.

 

looking for 500 points jump on hang seng on monday. expect no or min violence in hk this weekend. foreign payments to rioters dried up. (white helmets in Syria; yellow helments in HK, see the similarity?)

 

 

added to gold short 1514

 

added hsbc long 593

 

dont think 500 points for hang seng in 1 day. prob over fri and mon

 

added dax long

 

ok will not be chicken. letting these run

Edited by punter, 15 August 2019 - 06:55 AM.

[punter]

added to gold short 1514

 

added hsbc long 593

 

dont think 500 points for hang seng in 1 day. prob over fri and mon

 

added dax long

 

ok will not be chicken. letting these run

 

 

close 1 gold short. still keeping one.

[punter]

 

 

 

closed long usd gold. missed out on bigger profit. remaining longs paper loss now.

 

i dont see strength. until then i think this is a retrace.

 

 

added to sp long, short gold. still trading this retrace.

 

looking for 500 points jump on hang seng on monday. expect no or min violence in hk this weekend. foreign payments to rioters dried up. (white helmets in Syria; yellow helments in HK, see the similarity?)

 

 

added to gold short 1514

 

added hsbc long 593

 

dont think 500 points for hang seng in 1 day. prob over fri and mon

 

added dax long

 

ok will not be chicken. letting these run

 

 

added to long sp

 

added to gold short 1518. trading the wedge

 

this is still retrace trading for me. dont believe we have a longer term up move as yet

 

as of now looking for late aug/ early sep bottom; sep to oct retrace. very ugly nov thru dec.

Edited by punter, 15 August 2019 - 09:41 AM.

[punter]

took beer money profit on some sp longs to manage risk as going to bed. all remaining longs including short gold are now having paper losses.

 

I think this might be the last time I would go long in a long while. IMHO, risk to downside piling up.

Edited by punter, 15 August 2019 - 11:07 AM.

[punter]

took beer money profit on some sp longs to manage risk as going to bed. all remaining longs including short gold are now having paper losses.

 

I think this might be the last time I would go long in a long while. IMHO, risk to downside piling up.

 

closed remaining sp long and 1 dax long. still have some hsbc and dax long. leaning towards gold short, now contracts slightly under water. but waiting for a wedge break.

[punter]

 

took beer money profit on some sp longs to manage risk as going to bed. all remaining longs including short gold are now having paper losses.

 

I think this might be the last time I would go long in a long while. IMHO, risk to downside piling up.

 

closed remaining sp long and 1 dax long. still have some hsbc and dax long. leaning towards gold short, now contracts slightly under water. but waiting for a wedge break.

 

 

i think 2875 will be tested. not so sure about 2900. waiting to decide whether to add a small long sp. leaving for lunch and coffee.

[punter]

More outlier scenario tossed during lunch by someone.

The Chinese are really pissed. One plan on the table now is to push foward decoupling with US.

HK autonomy will be withdrawn and a new autonomous region called the greater bay region of more than 20 million people created.

US embassy in HK will be closed, and major restructuring to take place to resolve all the problems left behind by the British colonial administration.

This may involve an early then planned free float of RMB and creation of an East Asia trading region using rMB.

Very radical thinking. But one country 2 system was never really meant for HK; it was an experiment.

Didn't cross my mind at all. Next black swan turning out to be geopolitical and close to home. All the world problems were supposed to be far away, in some foreign country.

Word on the street is that an entire civil service administration is already in place and shadowing current HK administration; ready to take over.

If this happens, East Asia will have to choose. Reordering if it happens, will be very very fast.

Edited by punter, 16 August 2019 - 12:23 AM.