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Lift off....new SPX Highs then down ....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:31 PM

Bears should be very careful of shorting as a confluence of events can provide enough fuel to send this market zooming up past SPX 3150. 

 

However, it's not all straight up as yet and any of those tweets can bring the market down a few % points.

 

And, this rally will end in early October or even sooner.

 

Today was a good NQ daytrade market and I also daytraded VXX but did not get as much range as I expected.

 

I closed almost all of my QQQ calls, holding a mere 6 calls now.

 

Closed half of my XLF position with a 7% profit.

 

Still holding TLT short that is slightly in the green but this is a LT trade and I will short more TLT next week above 147

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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Inverse head and shoulder 2992 SPX breadth good

EEMMxPqX4AolkQM.png
7:35 AM - 11 Sep 2019

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:32 PM

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator up to well above +150, and with a "complex" structure above zero. Complex says the bulls are in charge, and the high number says they are making a strong upward initiation. Higher highs yet ahead.

EENvIObUUAARTlw.png
2:45 PM - 11 Sep 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:33 PM

Not only SPX but also BONDS where Tom and I am in agreement. 

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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A chart from my Daily Edition yesterday. The bond market selloff may have gotten just a bit overdone for the moment. Second lowest reading ever (since start of the dataset in 2005).

EEMUvzKUwAEKppH.png
8:10 AM - 11 Sep 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:40 PM

As I said last week, the Trade war is winding down as Trump decides he has had enough and wants to clear the deck of that vexing issue and move on to the actual campaign. It is like a detente with both sides pulling back and kicking it down the road. That's one reason I called for new highs.

Also, the President will declare victory re:tariffs in place and try to keep this issue out of the news. However, the Chinese will constantly try to extract more concessions and try to bring up the Trade war more and more as the election campaign gets going. YUAN will be allowed to weaken gradually all the way to 7.2 or 7.3

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Helene Meisler Retweeted zerohedge

Wait while I get my shocked face

Helene Meisler added,

zerohedge @zerohedge
TRUMP TO DELAY CHINA TARIFF INCREASE FROM OCT 1 TO OCT 15
4:25 PM - 11 Sep 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:41 PM

  1. Put/Call ratio for ETFs under 100% two straight days. Been two months since we've seen that.

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    Put/Call ratio 78%, lowest since 7/23

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    NYSE had fewest new lows since April 8th

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    Naz had fewest number of stocks making new lows since January 9th. That's a long time.



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:43 PM

Lift off.... could be a memorable rally lasting a week or two

At the request of the Chinese...LOL

 

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
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At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People's Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary.... 

    1. ....on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.


Edited by dTraderB, 11 September 2019 - 06:44 PM.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:55 PM

Not as yet unless something terrible happens.

However, in Late September or in October it may happen

 

Why this overlooked ‘black swan’ poses a ‘monstrous’ risk to the stock market

He pointed to this SocGen chart, in which he marked up (not with a Sharpie) to show what he considers the most troubling for investors:

MW-HR132_0_1_20190911144901_NS.jpg?uuid=

“A sharp market repricing should be the fattest swan on that diagram,” Renick continued. “The greatest risk to investors, the economy, and the tenuous state of geopolitics, is the price of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.72% . That does not mean it is the most likely risk — what it means is that the ripple effect of a sizable selloff in stocks right now is monstrous.”

What could cause such a ripple?

Renick painted this bearish scenario: The economy improves enough so that the Fed doesn’t cut rates, investors get spooked, assets pull back in a highly-correlated march, no cash pours in from the sidelines and the bottom falls out. “If no one’s there to buy because they’ve already bought, hedges don’t work because they’re all tied to the same events, liquidity exacerbates swings and the president realizes his cow-prod is on the verge of breaking, watch out below,” he wrote.

https://www.marketwa...w_theo_homepage



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:19 PM

S&P Futures may hit a new high in the overnight session.

 

Calling it a day but still good NQ daytrading moves as Asian markets open



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:20 PM

The European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate from the current negative 0.4% tomorrow. Futures markets predict a 50% chance of a 10-basis-point reduction, to negative 0.5%, and a 50% chance of a 20-bps cut, to negative 0.6%.



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 06:18 AM

Key Events

The European Central Bank releases a policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, and ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference at 8:30 a.m.

U.S. consumer prices in August are expected to rise 0.1% from a month earlier and 1.8% from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to climb 0.2% and 2.3%. The data is due out at 8:30 a.m.

U.S. jobless claims, to be released at 8:30 a.m., are expected to fall to 215,000 from 217,000 a week earlier.

U.S. natural-gas stockpiles are slated for 10:30 a.m. Inventories are expected to have risen 81 billion cubic feet during the week ended Aug. 6, more than average for this time of year, per the average target of 13 analysts and traders surveyed by the Journal. 

The federal budget deficit for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2019, out at 2 p.m., is expected to reach $1.067 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin participates in a moderated discussion at the DealBook DC Strategy Forum at 5 p.m.