977 replies to this topic

[ryanoo]

What can you possibly see bullish on that chart?

miners outperforming snp. three green vertical lines in late 2007, early 2016 and now, look similar.

[senorBS]

This is my biggest problem with elliot, you have so may projections... so many what if's and if this happens then it must be this other count. Alot follow it but anyone I have ever followed has a less than 50% win rate IF you do not allow the what if's, could be's and just give a call and stick to it. Not knocking anyones TA but it is beyond me how anyone can make a dime with all the excuses when a projection is wrong. I stand by my TA that we retest the bottom around 1470 next. PERIOD... No unlesses... an what if's just target and stop. Personally gibberish but no personal disrespect meant. Maybe as a IT position trader it allows for all the what if's an excuses but I know from experience it is a big money pit for a ST swing trader.

we all have our tools we use to try to forecast/increase our odds. I use Ewave along with technical analysis and sentiment, over time I have refined it and it works for me, any analysis is a "best guess", GLTA

 

Senor

[opinionated]

You are exactly right, and I thank you for sharing yours. Do you chart other than metals? I'd be very interested in your thoughts on other vehicles.

God bless Sir

[stubaby]

 

I spent alot of time last night looking at some of my forgotten indicators, then over lapping time/cycles. Unless there is a major news event I see nothing telling me we are going past 1520-25 the best outcome in my mind is waiting an playing the bounce off of 1470-75 on the retest. At that point there is hope for the bulls back to 1520 If that test holds. I see range bound in the next two weeks. On any strength Monday I will take a short position looking for that test.

Good trades my friends

There is IMO a very bullish "possible" count here but it "should" see gold blast thru 1520-1530 early next week "if" it is going to play out as I see it now. The alternate count I would have is that we've done an ABC decline down to this weeks low near 1460, this is a X wave rally (more upside to go), and when done modestly we do another abc down modestly below 1459 to complete a double zigzag correction. "Right now" I like the chances for the immediate bullish outcome but I remain flexible

 

Senor

 

I have been contemplating that same "double zigzag" count for the miners, as well, FWIW

[dharma]

i have never seen a market w/so many confusing alternatives

the miners and gld are showing flag patterns=bullish

the seasonals are down into months end = correction

govt is spending like a drunken sailor

ray dalio is calling for stagflation to take the market soon 1-1/`.2 years

marty loss of confidence by the people towards govt. starts jan 2929

for me miners are way undervalued by all historical metrics

so , i stay seated and wait for the tide to come in and lift my boats

i see folks waiting stressing on to wait for lower prices and fill out their positions

or jump in now. folks  will chase its the nature of the beast. in  buying potential 1440 or 1500 in retrospect a year or 2 from now 

this will have all been folly  as all we see in the financial news comes home to roost.  tariffs hurt everyone. except for govt which doesnt add one iota to gdp. such is the environment today.  6 years. of the gulag and this is the result

dharma

when i started in 78 everytime i sold i bought back higher. that is what awaits us as i believe 3of 3 is either now or after the double zig zag.  . i thought zig zag was a folk hero of the 60s  maybe it was r n s folly !

Edited by dharma, 05 October 2019 - 06:15 PM.

[senorBS]

You are exactly right, and I thank you for sharing yours. Do you chart other than metals? I'd be very interested in your thoughts on other vehicles.

God bless Sir

Yes, I trade/chart other markets when metals/miners look like lousy environments to be in. Since I think gold/silver/miners is the best "long" over the next yr or longer that's where I want to focus for the time being. Its also a market I used to get paid for writing analysis on so its probably my "best market" since I have spent so much time with it

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 05 October 2019 - 06:18 PM.

[senorBS]

 

 

I spent alot of time last night looking at some of my forgotten indicators, then over lapping time/cycles. Unless there is a major news event I see nothing telling me we are going past 1520-25 the best outcome in my mind is waiting an playing the bounce off of 1470-75 on the retest. At that point there is hope for the bulls back to 1520 If that test holds. I see range bound in the next two weeks. On any strength Monday I will take a short position looking for that test.

Good trades my friends

There is IMO a very bullish "possible" count here but it "should" see gold blast thru 1520-1530 early next week "if" it is going to play out as I see it now. The alternate count I would have is that we've done an ABC decline down to this weeks low near 1460, this is a X wave rally (more upside to go), and when done modestly we do another abc down modestly below 1459 to complete a double zigzag correction. "Right now" I like the chances for the immediate bullish outcome but I remain flexible

 

Senor

 

I have been contemplating that same "double zigzag" count for the miners, as well, FWIW

 

 

Like Dharma wrote, in a yr or so looking back at 1440 or 1500 from way higher it simply won't matter which level you bought, IMO one should at least hold a core long and trade around it if they just can't stand buy and hold. That is what I often do, however given my current outlook I won't go below 40% long, am close to 70% long at this time and that is about as long as I ever get as I don't ever use any leverage. As far an this being an "X" wave, yeah maybe but is just as likely a simple abc is done and off we go, we see

 

Senor

[hhh]

 

 

 

 I thought zig zag was a folk hero of the 60s  maybe it was r n s folly !

 

I thought Zig-Zag was a brand of rolling papers.

 

 

[opinionated]

You may all be right, but this was the exact conversation at every top. I will trade one swing cycle at a time. An IF my TA is correct I will be long when I need to be. With more capital to do so. Interest rates are a 80% probability in 3 weeks yet Gold is rolling over at a lower high, after a lower low. Does THAN NOT tell you the underlying strength is non existant? Your hanging your hat on world turmoil? I think caution is warranted by each side now. Alot of peoples money will be changing hands.

[tradesurfer]

There was all this talk recently about this huge transfer from 'growth' to ''value" all over the internet and main business media channels.   So growth is out and value is in.

 

So you have this massive capital shift trying to find a new home in the future challenging economic environment.

 

Funny how they dont mention metals and mining as a value sector to particpate in.

 

Edited by tradesurfer, 06 October 2019 - 12:06 AM.