1289 replies to this topic

[ryanoo]

Commercials have been heavily short since last summer and have missed a huge rally, they have been quite wrong.

They have been wrong the entire bull run in 2006-2011

[ryanoo]

I think coronavirus is the true black swan event in the world economy.

China's economy is at stand still, Japan has been tanking, and Korea's is coming to its knees.

Japan's Cruise ship, Korea's shadowy church, .. the common was hospital & healthcare workers in all three countries acting as the place and agent of infections.  Other countries will have their own 'Wuhan' place.  The hospitals and schools are quite possible super agents, and factories and business offices too.

It's only beginning.  Gold is sensing this.

Edited by ryanoo, 22 February 2020 - 11:24 AM.

[ryanoo]

delete

 

Edited by ryanoo, 22 February 2020 - 11:24 AM.

[dougie]

 

one thing is, the SPEC position in gold is MASSIVE. Last time it was this high we went DOWN relentlessly

 

 

Commercial hedgers are short the highest, higher than during the bull run 2006-2012.  

Higher short position by the hedgers is LT bullish according to the chart.

The 2011 top happened after the spec's long position stayed at, or came down from, the peak for a couple of years.

So, be careful in using the COT as a timing tool

https://finviz.com/f....ashx?t=GC&p=m1

 

i am not using it as a timing tool mind you. I am using it with the knwledge that when this decides to pullback it will snowball. that is what huge spec positions do.

[dougie]

 

Commercials have been heavily short since last summer and have missed a huge rally, they have been quite wrong.

They have been wrong the entire bull run in 2006-2011

 

commerciala are not wrong . they are hedging

[dougie]

anyone think CKG close to entering a wave 3?

[stubaby]

anyone think CKG close to entering a wave 3?

I can't make anything out of this chart

 

http://schrts.co/kKUVUPnR

[ryanoo]

 

 

i am not using it as a timing tool mind you. I am using it with the knwledge that when this decides to pullback it will snowball. that is what huge spec positions do.

it can take a long time.  unless it tops out and declining, mentioning it is a waste of time.

[K Wave]

anyone think CKG close to entering a wave 3?

 

I think it has big potential...looks like it is coiling for potential liftoff. Just waiting for kickoff day.

 

Hard to see that action since last summer as anything but a surge off a long term bottom, followed by a nearly pic perfect bull flag.

 

As long as it keeps holding above the 200 day, acceleration upside could be imminent.

If it does breakout here soon, then the 2016 highs should doable pretty quickly.

 

[senorBS]

Given the gold/silver ratio and the SILJ:GDX ratios I am looking for silver and SILJ to start outperforming soon

 

Senor