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BIG Rally Coming!

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#1 blustar

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 02:17 PM

The e-waves has X Jan 27 and Y next week around Feb 5.  Of Y, we have an inverted wxy wave with y of Y blasting up to new highs with most of it coming on Monday Feb 3.  I would not be surprised to see a move up into the 3350's SPX.  Z is due on Feb 13, big down.  A wxy Y wave is a strong bearish pattern once complete and Z should run abc with c of Z from Feb 11-13.  Amazon is leading the NASDAQ 100 strongly causing it to not make new lows today.  The NASDAQ 100 pattern is very bullish and will lead the market higher into next week. There is a J/S top due Feb 3 and we have a Bradley due Feb 1.  The next one is due Feb 8. Normally, the two month cycle would take over into Tuesday week, but it is inverting, which will prove to be very bearish as we go into Feb 13.



#2 pdx5

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 06:29 PM

SPX advances 125 points on Monday? 


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#3 tommyt

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 08:57 PM

125 pts on Monday?

 

No,,,know...no. We are probably in a similar fractal to Jan/Feb 2018, look at VIX and SPX charts.


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#4 Harapa

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 09:19 PM

A wishful thinking or illusion!


My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.


#5 tsharp

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 10:05 PM

I can see a smallish bounce, and by my fractal count today ended a wave-a:c down:

 

SP00-15-1-31-20-2.jpg

 

 

As for the momentum trend, an IT turn as taken place:

 

SP00-D-1-31-20.jpg



#6 tsharp

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 06:30 AM

The SPX monthly ends on a doji candle with a long upper shadow... not looking very bullish here to me:

 

 

SPX-M-01-31-20-1.jpg


Edited by tsharp, 02 February 2020 - 06:32 AM.


#7 Waver

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 07:39 AM

This Doji Candlestick is called a Gravestone Candlestick. This month made a good new high compared to the previous (December 2019) of 3.3% higher and then erased all of the gains and then some by the end of the month.

The closest one that I can find on the monthly charts is from May 2001. This month closed up on the month unlike January 2020. The following month (June 2001) ended down 2%. However the following 4 months after May 2001 were down for a total decline of 16.9% (month end close to month end close). The max draw down during this 4 month period came during the September 2001 for a total decline of 25.3%.

The next one I can find was in July 1998. This month actually ended up like May 2001 and unlike January 2020. The following month (August 1998) the market was down 16.4% (closed near the lows of the month). Afterward the huge rally to March 2000 started.

I could not find one on a monthly basis that closed down like January 2020. Went back as far as the end of 1997.

#8 Waver

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 08:26 AM

I found the above based on visual. Therefore I am sure I missed some. Anyone - Please let me know if you can find any more?

I do see another month I did miss. It was recent actually. It was July 2019. The long wick on top is not as pronounced as the gravestone candlesticks from January 2020, May 2001 and July 1998. July 2019s candlestick did produce an all time high just like in January 2020 and unlike in May 2001 and July 1998. The following month (August 2019) finished down 1.9% which had a max draw down of 6.9%. The following months 4 were all UP leading to high in January 2020 (which finished down with the next gravestone candlestick).

Unless there are examples of these instances that I missed, based on the last 22 years of history, every month following these gravestone candlesticks were down at least 1.9%.

#9 tsharp

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 10:13 AM

This Doji Candlestick is called a Gravestone Candlestick. This month made a good new high compared to the previous (December 2019) of 3.3% higher and then erased all of the gains and then some by the end of the month.

The closest one that I can find on the monthly charts is from May 2001. This month closed up on the month unlike January 2020. The following month (June 2001) ended down 2%. However the following 4 months after May 2001 were down for a total decline of 16.9% (month end close to month end close). The max draw down during this 4 month period came during the September 2001 for a total decline of 25.3%.

The next one I can find was in July 1998. This month actually ended up like May 2001 and unlike January 2020. The following month (August 1998) the market was down 16.4% (closed near the lows of the month). Afterward the huge rally to March 2000 started.

I could not find one on a monthly basis that closed down like January 2020. Went back as far as the end of 1997.

 

The most pronounced gravestone doji I could find is at my projected high in time and price from my 2.15.19 forecast:

 

SPX-M-01-31-20-Dojis.jpg



#10 Waver

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 11:31 AM

Thanks for the chart 👍
Looks like I missed 2
And yea every month after this type of candlestick on a monthly basis has been down.
Looks to be a toss up after this month, based on history. Some of these reversals had follow through the proceeding month.

Based on my expectations (and as with yours), in the bigger picture (count), there should be follow through in the up coming months.





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