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what's wrong with the new covid cases curve in USA ?


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#41 claire

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 11:19 AM

 

 

Cases are overstated because of false positives, sometimes by a lot. So, more testing will give you more discovered cases AND more false positives.

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

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I'm sure you're aware that until recently, NY accounted for about half the total cases and deaths in the US. The strict lockdown in NY has reduced those numbers remarkably and helped dramatically to lower the total rate for this nation. Similar restrictions and wearing masks has had a positive impact where similar policies were followed.

Also, there are more false negatives than false positives for the C-19 tests for a variety of reasons, induding faulty use of the swabs by testers, that the virus is in other parts of the body rather than the nose, that the viral load is insufficient to give a positive result, and the timing of the test post infection which can alter the results. A false positive is far less likely.

I agree that we must look at the data in the next few months before we can make any statements about the direction and course of this virus with any better certainty. Meanwhile, we can't draw conclusions based on isolated examples, and some of us need to check our egos in thinking we know more than leading virologists, epidemiologists, and the medical community. With such high stakes, being cautious is prudent. 

 

AGAIN...the lockdown was done way too late in New York to be very effective, and New York has been determined to be the primary source of infection spread in the USA.

 

If what you are saying is true, then New York will see a big surge of cases after they re-open, just like other states that actually did shutdown earlier in the progression than New York did.

I predict right now, that that will not happen, as New York is already approaching herd immunity due to the massive spread before the lockdown.

What we are seeing the other states is a wave of delayed infections that are thankfully much less deadly for a variety of reasons.

Once this re-open wave passes, we are on our way to better times, and in another 4-6 weeks, the rest of the country will look like NY does now, which is essentially DONE except for some mop up duty.

 

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NY STILL has more restrictions than most of the rest of the States which, hopefully, will prevent the kind of rise in cases such as we are seeing in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and other places. And, most New Yorkers are compliant in wearing masks and observing the guidelines for social distancing. The public demonstrations occurred outdoors with a large majority wearing masks, and the evidence strongly suggests that this does seem to diminish contagion markedly.

 

NY may not see a surge in cases for reasons other than that it has achieved herd immunity. We cannot base a conclusion based on one piece of information. Other variables need to be considered.

 

I agree that NY should have shut down sooner, as should have occurred far sooner elsewhere, and testing and contact tracing should have been implemented aggressively, but this didn't happen because the nation was in denial about the danger and shamefully unprepared to enforce measures that could have saved a great many thousands of lives, much suffering, and profound impact on the economy. 

It's astonishing to me that the data from NY after the shutdown has been ignored by much of the nation just as has similar dramatic changes in the trajectory of deaths and infections among other nations who implemented similar policies as well as data that pointed to the critical role of testing, contact tracing, and wearing masks. My fear for NY is that open travel to NY will lead to a change in the curve, but I hope it will be limited by sound strategies such as those implemented so far in NY.

 

Pinning hope on a much lower threshold for herd immunity than the scientific consensus of leading epidemiologists seems very reckless until we have much more data that, hopefully, does confirm this more optimistic outlook and leads to an adjustment in expectations. At the moment, this evidence doesn't exist.

 

Citing isolated examples that don't fit most patterns is not evidence on which to base contrary conclusions. This data is worthy of careful examination in efforts to isolate other variables that may be influencing the variance, but sound scientific rigor eschews speculative opinion. 

I'd be thrilled to learn that you're right and that this will fade in 4-6 weeks. I think there were a few similar predictions here a few weeks ago expecting a dramatic end at that time. And, we have yet to see what the Fall brings. Most important is to be aware that immunity may have a short half-life that makes it moot if reinfections occur in the herd.

 

Meanwhile, the lack of a rigorous national strategy based on evidence of what is known about the course of pandemics, measures to limit the damage, ignorance of science, and shooting from the hip have been disastrous for this nation. 



#42 salam

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 11:39 AM

Claire

 

“I'd be thrilled to learn that you're right and that this will fade in 4-6 weeks. I think there were a few similar predictions here a few weeks ago expecting a dramatic end at that time. And, we have yet to see what the Fall brings.“

ditto

 

I sincerely hope we are wrong 
 


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