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what's wrong with the new covid cases curve in USA ?


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#21 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 05:54 PM

 

 

Young people congregating in large groups without social distancing in 3% of counties in United States.

That was simply fool hardy. Of course more tests are partly responsible. Something like 26 Million tests done.

That is many times more than other countries. 

 

How many tests PER CAPITA have we done compared to other nations?

 

https://www.statista...ries-worldwide/

 

 

some people STILL believe everything Trump says as the truth.

US per capita testing is woeful. The US curve is not flattening, it’s rising again. 
4% of worlds population but over 20% of global recorded mortality.

woeful.
 

with all the wealth and technology, UK, USA and (Brazil’s) response to Covid are total sh*tshows. 
 

the result of political egos’Trumping’ science and medicine.

 

 

 

Hospitalizations not up. Deaths in a serious down-trend. False positives and lots more testing, however, will overstate cases.

 

Seems like there's literally nothing particular to worry about, when you look at the facts.


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#22 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:00 PM

Cases are overstated because of false positives, sometimes by a lot. So, more testing will give you more discovered cases AND more false positives.

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

covidHosp06-27-20.gif


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#23 CLK

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:44 PM

 

 

Because you are an epidemiologist, have superior medical and virological and statistical knowledge than most of us mere mortals.

 

per capita testing should be high in the early stages of a pandemic, track trace and contain, so negating the need for high volume testing later.

 

US is doing more testing now, because all the horses have bolted from the stables and are infecting the herd.

 

but I forget.... we are dumb and you are wise and despair with our lack of intelligence 

 

If I was dumb why am I worth millions starting with $25 in my pocket when I arrived in this great country?

If I am dumb, why I am in perfect health at age 80, and do not even need to see doctors?

And most important no dumb person can ever break his age on 18 holes, which I have done multiple times.

 

 

 

Your back must be a wreck playing golf that long. Jack Nicklaus said there are two kinds of golfers, those with bad backs, and those that will have bad backs.



#24 salam

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:57 PM

Thank you for the additional data.

 

1. mortality rates 

 

these vary according to age and comorbidities and indeed ethnicity. Absolute mortality rates are impossible to be accurate due to variables in testing and thresholds for positives, false positives etc.

 

europe mortality rates are about a month ahead of the USA.

 

nevertheless, I agree, death rates are extremely important.

 

the USA has lost nearly 130k souls. Multiply that by at least 3/4 bereaved relatives and the distress within communities.

 

Now include recovered cases with ongoing disability and impaired function, which adds significant burden to economic productivity loss due to incapacity.

 

now add the economic burden of hospitalisation of those who have recovered with illness.

 

now add the economic impact on the rising wave of new illnesses.

 

now add the stress to essential services and incapacity and illness of key workers.... who will replace them?

 

2. herd immunity.

 

erm, plenty of evidence that reinfection does occur, so once infected, this does not guarantee reinfection. herd immunity refers more to the majority ...the herd... being immune. No evidence whatsoever that we are anywhere near this.
 

3. international quarantine protocols.

 

nations with high levels of infection will have limited travel and commerce opportunities.

 

4. seasonal Flu double whammy in October/ November

 

5. mutation and more virulent strains affecting healthier populations due to ongoing reinfections.

 

rinse repeat.... this is Not seasonal.... this is a perennial potent virulent strain. Until vaccination next year, Covid is going nowhere soon.

 

 

This is a 100 year global event, and there appears no signs of the virulence abating. Cases in the developing world are rising.

 

I do hope I am wrong, and that mortality rates do indeed fall.

but, while many nations fail to contain, nor have a cogent strategy, cases will continue to rise.


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#25 claire

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:24 PM

I can't believe there are still people here who believe number of infections are a bad thing.

Deaths are bad, infections are good. It is called herd immunity.

 

20-26 million infections, and 126,000 deaths is 0.005 ratio of deaths/infections.

 

Looking back, after me and wife came back from cruise on Feb 29th, we both had a dry cough which lasted 2 weeks.

We just ignored it as we do with mild cold symptoms. Knowing how many people from China and East Asia were on the crowded ship, I am beginning to suspect we were infected by covid-19.

 

No wonder I have been doing all sorts of stuff since March, and not getting infected again. I am convinced we both acquired immunity with the mild infection from the cruise.

 

 

Using your numbers, to achieve herd immunity, a total of 231,000,000 would have to be infected, yielding 1,155,000 deaths (over one million more than now) with many hospitals likely overwhelmed. Also, millions more than this number would have their health impacted . 

And, we have to hope that this immunity lasts for longer than a few months. It may for some and not for others. Not enough is understood about this to be able to answer that question now. If immunity doesn't last until there's an effective vaccine, people will be vulnerable to reinfection. There goes your herd-immunity.

 

You'd better start wearing a mask to help keep you safe and to help keep others safe from you if/when you are reinfected.



#26 K Wave

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:35 PM


 

 

This is a 100 year global event, and there appears no signs of the virulence abating. Cases in the developing world are rising.

 

 

 

Then how do you explain this action in Sweden?

sweden.png

 

And Docs in Italy and Pennsylvania seem to confirm what is happening in Sweden....in addition to places like Texas, Arizona. Florida, California, where deaths are a tiny fraction of the death rates seen in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachutsetts. Texas has 1/20th of the death rate seen by New York/New Jersey, despite now being #4 in cases in the USA.

 

https://www.actionne...HI5KYMC7HKEZPQ/

Doctors Alberto Zangrillo and Matteo Bassetti suggested Sunday that the level of virus they are seeing in patients is much lower than what they had recorded at the virus’s peak in the country.

"In reality," Zangrillo said, "the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy.”

 

Zangrillo, who is the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, Italy, said the viral load, or the level of virus in the body that he is seeing in recent patients, has dropped significantly.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told Italian television.

 

Bassetti echoed Zangrillo’s findings on Sunday.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

 

https://triblive.com...fection-levels/

Covid-19 is declining in both virulence and infection levels among patients at the state’s largest health care system, UPMC officials said Thursday.

Dr. Donald Yealy, who heads emergency medicine at the system that has hospitals across the state, said both the ratio of patients testing positive for the virus and the viral load of those infected have been on the downturn since late April. Fewer patients are requiring ventilators to help them breathe.


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#27 pdx5

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 08:53 PM

The only data which really matters is DEATHS PER CAPITA from Covid-19

 

  Confirmed deaths (absolute) Population (in millions) Deaths per million Belgium 9,726 11.42 851.51 United Kingdom 43,230 66.49 650.18 Spain 28,327 46.72 606.27 Italy 34,678 60.43 573.84 Sweden 5,230 10.18 513.59 France 29,694 66.99 443.28 USA 124,251 327.17 379.78 Ireland 1,727 4.85 355.83 Netherlands 6,100 17.23 354.01 Peru 8,761 31.99 273.87 Brazil 54,971 209.47 262.43 Chile 4,903 18.73 261.78 Ecuador 4,343 17.08 254.21
 
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#28 pdx5

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 08:58 PM

deaths-per-capita.jpg


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#29 claire

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 09:01 PM

Cases are overstated because of false positives, sometimes by a lot. So, more testing will give you more discovered cases AND more false positives.

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

attachicon.gifcovidHosp06-27-20.gif

 

 

 

 

I'm sure you're aware that until recently, NY accounted for about half the total cases and deaths in the US. The strict lockdown in NY has reduced those numbers remarkably and helped dramatically to lower the total rate for this nation. Similar restrictions and wearing masks has had a positive impact where similar policies were followed.

Also, there are more false negatives than false positives for the C-19 tests for a variety of reasons, induding faulty use of the swabs by testers, that the virus is in other parts of the body rather than the nose, that the viral load is insufficient to give a positive result, and the timing of the test post infection which can alter the results. A false positive is far less likely.

I agree that we must look at the data in the next few months before we can make any statements about the direction and course of this virus with any better certainty. Meanwhile, we can't draw conclusions based on isolated examples, and some of us need to check our egos in thinking we know more than leading virologists, epidemiologists, and the medical community. With such high stakes, being cautious is prudent. 



#30 pdx5

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Posted 28 June 2020 - 09:03 PM

Deaths per Population size (Only number which matters) 
 
Belgium 9,726 11.42 851.51 
UnitedKingdom 43,230 66.49 650.18 
Spain 28,327 46.72 606.27 
Italy 34,678 60.43 573.84 
Sweden 5,230 10.18 513.59 
France 29,694 66.99 443.28 
USA 124,251 327.17 379.78 
Ireland 1,727 4.85 355.83 
Netherlands 6,100 17.23 354.01 

The first number is deaths, second number population in millions, third number is Deaths/Million


Edited by pdx5, 28 June 2020 - 09:06 PM.

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