47 replies to this topic

[CLK]

Out, 6 points, tired of these horizontal resistances up here, buy stop 39.5.

[K Wave]

 

my guess is we break out to the upside starting on Monday.

Good start so far Sunday evening here, so watching the ES take out R1 at 3134 and moving even higher towards 3150 (R2=3153) between 8:00pm-9:30pm EST after SPY and other ETFs open for Sunday night trading, the overnight might just yield the gap and go for Monday.  The gap and crap Thursday, and drift down on Friday futures reset the short term rather nicely for basically a gap fill near the Friday 3106 print.  Rather interesting since we already have 4 consecutive up days for NDX and SPX last week.

 

Got the breakaway from the 200 MA on hourly YM that I was looking for...now if that 200 MA kinks upwards soon, after that looooonnnggg corrective phase, bulls are likely good to go for a while to come
 

 

And 4 hour looks like it may be making a decision here as well as the jaws of the alligator snap shut...multiple time frame decisions are my favorites...

A 4 hour close over 26K likely seals in the victory for bulls, and kicks off the next swing move, which could make a run for the All Time High.

 

Back below Friday's low now, and would have to rethink bullish stance.

[CLK]

Ok, stopped in at 39.5, I think it can run now and use 38 for support.

Next resistance is 3144.

[CLK]

Sell limit 54.5.

[CLK]

 

Out, +7, don't like the gap 15 min., buy limit 40.75.

[pdx5]

 

Just because day traders are getting trades right, doesn't mean they are exceptional on the intermediate term trend.

Yep, Guilty here. I generally have a MUCH better grasp of the shorter term stuff than the longer stuff.

 

But when the longer stuff is pointing a certain direction, it makes timing the shorter trades a heckuva lot easier.

 

Right now there are so many cross currents in the the shorter to intermediate stuff that is is not real easy at this juncture to be real confident on either direction right now for the next BIG swing move.

I do think think those cross currents are real close to being resolved, and that it will be pretty clear which way the intermediate currents are flowing as soon as next week.

 

With the virus on its last legs of this wave (see huge drop in Sweden last week, and Houston looking like it has peaked out), my guess is we break out to the upside starting on Monday.

 

What it generally looks like to me is that NAZ and SPX are leading the way up, but still waiting on RUT, DOW, NYA, and Trannies to break their downtrends, and get everything thing back in sync upside.

 

But if that does not materialize, then not the time to overly complacent on the long side...for a least a number of weeks anyway, as it could be the laggards are telling a more powerful story right now than the leaders. (I am still open to the possibility of a 1962 style 2nd higher low maybe in August)

 

Bottom line: As long as SPX continues to hold above 3K, Bulls have huge benefit of doubt. Back below that, then some sort of retest of the March lows become much more likely.

 

I do not recall you posting several posts of your short term trades every 15 minutes.

What you post (going by my memory) is your opinion based on charts of critical levels in indexes. 

 That is different and actually useful.

 

If I keep posting every few minutes of what options I just bought or sold, I don't see how that helps other traders.

[CLK]

pdx5, 

 

at 3175, I would go 100% long.

 

I am just trying to manage a futures trade until it is above 3157, then I think I can leave it alone until 3200.

Edited by CLK, 05 July 2020 - 08:29 PM.

[CLK]

Buy stop 57.25.

[Darris]

Yes Kwave, that was a nice punch thru 3138 which was the ES high early Friday morning on the good China Caxin news.  This time frame is usually the pre-Hang Sang open, and prior to that we saw a decent push up into the 8pm ETF open.  The battle zone on the ES Sept is 3145 now since this is the 6th time we have hit it or briefly punched thru it since the June 15th low.  Bears/Sellers should be completely out of ammo defending it by now.  Inverse shares saw 391 mil add on Thursday, but SH dumped 35 mil on Wed and added 5 mil on Thursday.  The bigger numbers were in the TQQQ long funds as they dumped 1.5 billion in that single fund alone the last 3 days of last week.  COT report not out until Monday due to Holiday, and Weekly OCC options report did not show anything too wild, and the small traders we have been talking a lot about have toned down significantly on the number of buy to open contracts, but last week was shortened.  Tomorrow could be a big day if there is a price release above ES 3145.  ES sept 3170-3180 zone is the June 10th gap fill on the close after FED Speak.  I think high profile earnings start on July 14th mainly with Banks, and I thought I saw that MSFT reported on July 16th, and they beat last quarter even with the shutdown.  I'm still having a hard time breaking away from ES analysis when I should be focused on NQ since it continues to pay twice as much as the ES, LOL.

[CLK]

Short 3154, stop 56.