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COVID Can't be stopped. What inflation?


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#1 linrom1

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 03:57 PM

 

Osterholm: It won’t be. We will be dealing with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully ones with some durability will be very important, even critical tools, in fighting it. But the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 ‘til the end of time.

 

I have no idea whether he is right or wrong, but, if what he says is true, then almost everyone is positioned on the wrong side of this trade.

 

https://www.marketwa...0?siteid=yhoof2


Edited by linrom1, 30 July 2020 - 03:58 PM.


#2 pdx5

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 04:32 PM

The reality is the good doctor does not know any better than the doctor who estimated 2-2.5 million deaths from covid-19 in 2020.

Instead we have less than 7% deaths compared to initial estimates.

 

Ask yourself how humans survived all the pandemics in history.

 

 

The 2009 swine flu pandemic was caused by a new strain of H1N1 that originated in Mexico in the spring of 2009 before spreading to the rest of the world. In one year, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the CDC.

 

pandemic was a blend of avian flu viruses. 

 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that the disease spread rapidly and was reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and the coastal cities of the United States in the summer of 1957. The total death toll was more than 1.1 million worldwide, with 116,000 deaths occurring in the United States.

An estimated 500 million people from the South Seas to the North Pole fell victim to Spanish Flu. One-fifth of those died, with some indigenous communities pushed to the brink of extinction. The flu's spread and lethality was enhanced by the cramped conditions of soldiers and poor wartime nutrition that many people were experiencing during World War I. 

 

The Asian Flu pandemic was another global showing for influenza. With its roots in China, the disease claimed more than 1 million lives.  

 

About 5,000 years ago, an epidemic wiped out a prehistoric village in China. The bodies of the dead were stuffed inside a house that was later burned down. No age group was spared, as the skeletons of juveniles, young adults and middle-age people were found inside the house. The archaeological site is now called "Hamin Mangha" and is one of the best-preserved prehistoric sites in northeastern China. Archaeological and anthropological study indicates that the epidemic happened quickly enough that there was no time for proper burials, and the site was not inhabited again.

 

 Around 430 B.C., not long after a war between Athens and Sparta began, an epidemic ravaged the people of Athens and lasted for five years. Some estimates put the death toll as high as 100,000 people (compare 31 million Americans dying). The Greek historian Thucydides (460-400 B.C.) wrote that "people in good health were all of a sudden attacked by violent heats in the head, and redness and inflammation in the eyes, the inward parts, such as the throat or tongue, becoming bloody and emitting an unnatural and fetid breath" 

 

When soldiers returned to the Roman Empire from campaigning, they brought back more than the spoils of victory. The Antonine Plague, which may have been smallpox, laid waste to the army and may have killed over 5 million people in the Roman empire. I had smallpox at age 8 and the mortality rate is 30%.

 

The Black Death traveled from Asia to Europe, leaving devastation in its wake. Some estimates suggest that it wiped out over half of Europe's population. It was caused by a strain of the bacterium Yersinia pestis that is likely extinct today and was spread by fleas on infected rodents. The bodies of victims were buried in mass graves

 

The plague changed the course of Europe's history. With so many dead, labor became harder to find, bringing about better pay for workers and the end of Europe's system of serfdom. Studies suggest that surviving workers had better access to meat and higher-quality bread. The lack of cheap labor may also have contributed to technological innovation.

Cocoliztli epidemic of 1545-154infection that caused the cocoliztli epidemic was a form of viral hemorrhagic fever that killed 15 million inhabitants of Mexico and Central America. 

The American Plagues are a cluster of Eurasian diseases brought to the Americas by European explorers. These illnesses, including smallpox, contributed to the collapse of the Inca and Aztec civilizations. Some estimates suggest that 90% of the indigenous population in the Western Hemisphere was killed off. 

 

The diseases helped a Spanish force led by Hernán Cortés conquer the Aztec capital of Tenochtitlán in 1519 and another Spanish force led by Francisco Pizarro conquer the Incas in 1532. The Spanish took over the territories of both empires. In both cases, the Aztec and Incan armies had been ravaged by disease and were unable to withstand the Spanish forces.

The Black Death's last major outbreak in Great Britain caused a mass exodus from London, led by King Charles II. The plague started in April 1665 and spread rapidly through the hot summer months. Fleas from plague-infected rodents were one of the main causes of transmission. By the time the plague ended, about 100,000 people, including 15% of the population of London, had died.

Historical records say that the Great Plague of Marseille started when a ship called Grand-Saint-Antoine docked in Marseille, France, carrying a cargo of goods from the eastern Mediterranean. Although the ship was quarantined, plague still got into the city, likely through fleas on plague-infected rodents. 

Plague spread quickly, and over the next three years, as many as 100,000 people may have died in Marseille and surrounding areas. It's estimated that up to 30% of the population of Marseille may have perished. 

In the modern industrial age, new transport links made it easier for influenza viruses to wreak havoc. In just a few months, the disease spanned the globe, killing 1 million people. It took just five weeks for the epidemic to reach peak mortality.

The earliest cases were reported in Russia. The virus spread rapidly throughout St. Petersburg before it quickly made its way throughout Europe and the rest of the world, despite the fact that air travel didn't exist yet. 


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#3 K Wave

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 04:47 PM

All I can say is THANK YOU to Sweden for offering actual evidence that the guy is likely wrong.

 

He said:

 

And wherever there’s human wood to burn, it’ll do it. What we see, though, are these spikes in cases where human mitigation strategies ended, or they’re not adhering to them ... This is just one constant pressure that’s occurring.

 

And then there is this with no over the top mitigation except for some small amount of social distancing.

 

swe.png


Edited by K Wave, 30 July 2020 - 04:48 PM.

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#4 Dex

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 05:03 PM

 

 

Osterholm: It won’t be. We will be dealing with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully ones with some durability will be very important, even critical tools, in fighting it. But the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 ‘til the end of time.

 

I have no idea whether he is right or wrong, but, if what he says is true, then almost everyone is positioned on the wrong side of this trade.

 

https://www.marketwa...0?siteid=yhoof2

 

This is the key.   A vaccine needs to be manufactured, distributed and administered before anything changes.

 

The euphoria phase in the stock market should be ending soon as the economy recovery slows and the medical aspects get attention.

 

https://www.mayoclin...ne/art-20484859

Because of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine regulators might fast-track some of these steps. But it's unlikely that a COVID-19 vaccine will become available sooner than six months after clinical trials start. Realistically, a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months or longer to develop and test in human clinical trials. And we don't know yet whether an effective vaccine is possible for this virus.

If a vaccine is approved, it will take time to produce, distribute and administer to the global population. Because people have no immunity to the COVID-19 virus, it's likely that two vaccinations will be needed, three to four weeks apart. People would likely start to achieve immunity to the COVID-19 virus one to two weeks after the second vaccination.


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#5 K Wave

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 05:19 PM

 

 Note this section:

 

After infection with coronaviruses, re-infection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years.

 

This is what the Swedish approach is banking on. Get to current herd immunity, and then any subsequent outbreaks should be extremely muted.

And very likely that is why so many people have beaten this with current virus no apparent symptoms just from being subjected to other corona viruses over the years. (as well as not letting their immune system get in the toilet).

 

Tegnell also said they learned some hard early lessons about the elder care facilities in Sweden, and once they implemented changes, infections and deaths began to fall rapidly...as is demonstrated in the chart above.


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#6 pdx5

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 06:00 PM

Most acquired immunities, whether from vaccine or actual non-mortal infection, are essentially temporary. Which is why we need influenza vaccine every year. And other vaccines such as pneumonia vaccine require booster shots after a period of time.

 

However when enough people have acquired temporary immunity, the virus runs out of people to infect. In other words the temporary herd immunity kills the spread of virus.


Edited by pdx5, 30 July 2020 - 06:01 PM.

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#7 K Wave

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 06:11 PM

Again...there is also T cell immunity which lasts A LOT longer, and is likely why many people have fended off corona so easily, perhaps in part due to other corona infections

 

A worhwhile read:

 

https://directorsblo...ainst-covid-19/

 

Much of the study on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, has focused on the production of antibodies. But, in fact, immune cells known as memory T cells also play an important role in the ability of our immune systems to protect us against many viral infections, including—it now appears—COVID-19.

An intriguing new study of these memory T cells suggests they might protect some people newly infected with SARS-CoV-2 by remembering past encounters with other human coronaviruses. This might potentially explain why some people seem to fend off the virus and may be less susceptible to becoming severely ill with COVID-19.

 

The researchers gathered blood samples from 36 people who’d recently recovered from mild to severe COVID-19. They focused their attention on T cells (including CD4 helper and CD8 cytotoxic, both of which can function as memory T cells). They identified T cells that respond to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid, which is a structural protein inside the virus. They also detected T cell responses to two non-structural proteins that SARS-CoV-2 needs to make additional copies of its genome and spread. The team found that all those recently recovered from COVID-19 produced T cells that recognize multiple parts of SARS-CoV-2.

 

Next, they looked at blood samples from 23 people who’d survived SARS. Their studies showed that those individuals still had lasting memory T cells today, 17 years after the outbreak. Those memory T cells, acquired in response to SARS-CoV-1, also recognized parts of SARS-CoV-2.

 

Finally, Bertoletti’s team looked for such T cells in blood samples from 37 healthy individuals with no history of either COVID-19 or SARS. To their surprise, more than half had T cells that recognize one or more of the SARS-CoV-2 proteins under study here. It’s still not clear if this acquired immunity stems from previous infection with coronaviruses that cause the common cold or perhaps from exposure to other as-yet unknown coronaviruses.


Edited by K Wave, 30 July 2020 - 06:12 PM.

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#8 K Wave

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 06:14 PM

If Sweden gets most of their population with T cell immunity.......just sayin'

 

We will likely find out this winter if it worked....


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#9 pdx5

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 06:26 PM

If T-cell immunity lasts 5 years, it is still technically temporary. 

The point is even a temporary immunity will be effective in stopping the spread of virus, whether it is 6 months-1 year-or 5 years.


Edited by pdx5, 30 July 2020 - 06:27 PM.

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#10 fib_1618

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 07:09 AM

Thank you for the discussion.

 

Fib


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