48 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

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Edited by redfoliage2, 12 March 2022 - 10:40 AM.

[redfoliage2]

SPX 4700 end of the year
https://www.cnbc.com...in-a-month.html

[redfoliage2]

Will the Fed will do/say what bears are expecting???  I doubt.  I see the Fed is more likely to make bears disappointed on March 16th ..............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 14 March 2022 - 06:23 AM.

[redfoliage2]

Will the Fed will do/say what bears are expecting???  I doubt.  I see the Fed is more likely to make bears disappointed on March 16th ..............................

With that said I see the likelihood of a relief rally from this extremely over-sold place upon the Fed meeting is high from a contrarian view..................................

BTW, GS still sees SPX 4700 by the end of the year ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 14 March 2022 - 09:26 AM.

[redfoliage2]

The most meaningful inflation data - Core CPI month over month down from 0.6% to 0.5%;

Initial unemployment claims up from 216K to 227K.

The new development in inflation trend should make the Fed think twice when doing rate hiking................. 

PPI just out today.  PPI month over month down from 1.2% to 0.8%, trending same as CPI month over month, that together should alleviate inflation pressures at the Fed meeting ........

Edited by redfoliage2, 15 March 2022 - 07:41 AM.

[redfoliage2]

 

The most meaningful inflation data - Core CPI month over month down from 0.6% to 0.5%;

Initial unemployment claims up from 216K to 227K.

The new development in inflation trend should make the Fed think twice when doing rate hiking................. 

PPI just out today.  PPI month over month down from 1.2% to 0.8%, trending same as CPI month over month, that together should alleviate inflation pressures at the Fed meeting ........

 

That said, we should see a relief rally upon the Fed meeting  .......................

[redfoliage2]

With the negative factors being baked in by now we should expect more good news to come, i.e. the stock market is more likely to go higher than lower ................................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 March 2022 - 07:27 AM.

[redfoliage2]

 

 

The most meaningful inflation data - Core CPI month over month down from 0.6% to 0.5%;

Initial unemployment claims up from 216K to 227K.

The new development in inflation trend should make the Fed think twice when doing rate hiking................. 

PPI just out today.  PPI month over month down from 1.2% to 0.8%, trending same as CPI month over month, that together should alleviate inflation pressures at the Fed meeting ........

 

That said, we should see a relief rally upon the Fed meeting  .......................

 

More good news - Import price month over month (MOM) down from previous 1.9% to 1.4%; retail sales MOM down from 4.9% to 0.3%, good news in terms of fighting inflation and the Fed rate hiking ....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 March 2022 - 07:45 AM.

[redfoliage2]

The stock market had been priced in for much more aggressive actions from the Fed, that turned out not to be the case.......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 March 2022 - 01:42 PM.

[redfoliage2]

With the outlook for rate hiking clarified by the Fed I see it's very likely a bottom of ST/IT was in.......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 March 2022 - 02:20 PM.