Markets are hostages to the Global Political and Economic situation. In 99% or more of the time, the markets manage to navigate itself through and out of all these Global crises - from serious to minor. Mark's Traders-Talk.com and FF have rightly not allowed politics to be the main topic of discussion here. Many - almost all of us - have respected this policy and we must continue to do so.
I am now going to post here my opinion on the current GLOBAL CRISIS that may be too political for some but I am sure the Moderators and all or most of us will accept this is a rare case where the MARKETS are almost totally captive to the current GLOBAL CRISIS and therefore we need to accept this reality until it is over.
1. The UKRAINE crisis took a turn for the worse since Friday and has brought the world closer than ever - or at least since the Cuban Missile crisis - to a NATO/US military war with Russia et al. The bombings near the Polish border last night was an escalation that has made the world a vastly more dangerous place from this morning. The effect on the markets - especially energy & commodities, as well as Equity & Bond indices/rates - can be extreme e.g. huge drops and swings etc, trading suspended etc
2. The attack on the US Consulate or building in ERBIL by entities from IRAN has made the situation even worse.
3. As the situation worsened during the week I decided on Friday to be almost NET FLAT with the only high risk position being 10 ARKK CALLS that can at worse be reduced to ZERO worth with maximum loss being the premium paid for those calls
4, It is quite possible the situation will reach such a risk level that the FED WILL NOT RAISE RATES. Yes, this is possible.
5. In this heightened crisis environment, I will reduce trading or not trade unless small positions with double or triple STOP LOSS LEVELS. But, note that STOP LOSSES are not guarantee for exiting trades that can result in catastrophic losses.
I hope the above is understood as my brief analysis above of the effect of the global crisis on the markets & trading are accepted as NOT PURE POLITICS or taking sides but a well-intentioned post that may be useful for some.
