385 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

Lots of warning in recent days:

 

This momentum signal suggests caution for stocks An increasing number of industries are struggling.

The number of sub-industry groups with a positive 1-year rolling return crossed below 50% this week. The downward shift in momentum occurred after more than 80% of the groups had positive returns as recently as February.

When we assess the outlook for stocks after the number of sub-industry groups with a positive 1-year rolling return cross below 50% with a reset condition of 80%, we see that forward returns were poor, especially over the next 2-3 months.

Another worry? It triggered right before the last two 10% drawdowns in the S&P.
 

https://mailchi.mp/s...-recent-crashes

 

 

Stagflation is here!

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

30m

 

Whether youve traded 20 years & *especially if you started in 2021, these arent easy markets. Corrections mean rapid sells, even more violent short squeezes, then wide range chop in between. Smaller position size, wider stops & ability to adjust bias quick with price is essential

 

[dTraderB]

Bill Gurley

@bgurley

·

Apr 29

 

An entire generation of entrepreneurs & tech investors built their entire perspectives on valuation during the second half of a 13-year amazing bull market run. The "unlearning" process could be painful, surprising, & unsettling to many. I anticipate denial. Some thoughts:

 

1) Previous "all-time" highs are completely irrelevant. It's not "cheap" because it is down 70%. Forget those prices happened. 2) Valuation multiples are always a hack proxy. Dangerous to use. If you insist, 10X should be considered AMAZING and an upper limit. Over that silly.

 

3) You may be shocked to learn that people want to value your company on FCF and earnings. Facebook trades at 14X GAAP EPS, & is growing 23%. What earnings multiple are you assuming? 4) Revenue & earnings QUALITY matter.

[dTraderB]

LOL

BEZOS is referring you to GURLEY below:
 

Jeff Bezos

@JeffBezos

·

22h

 

Bill is without doubt one of the smartest people I know and always worth listening to. Most people dramatically underestimate the remarkableness of this bull run. Such things are unstoppable … until they aren’t. Markets teach. The lessons can be painful.

 

 

Bill Gurley

 

@bgurley

·

Apr 29

 

An entire generation of entrepreneurs & tech investors built their entire perspectives on valuation during the second half of a 13-year amazing bull market run. The "unlearning" process could be painful, surprising, & unsettling to many. I anticipate denial. Some thoughts:

 

1) Previous "all-time" highs are completely irrelevant. It's not "cheap" because it is down 70%. Forget those prices happened. 2) Valuation multiples are always a hack proxy. Dangerous to use. If you insist, 10X should be considered AMAZING and an upper limit. Over that silly.

 

3) You may be shocked to learn that people want to value your company on FCF and earnings. Facebook trades at 14X GAAP EPS, & is growing 23%. What earnings multiple are you assuming? 4) Revenue & earnings QUALITY matter.

 

[dTraderB]

BOND losses are HUGE! 

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

2h

 

As we race toward a depression in economic activity, I find it curious that the bond rating agencies are giving out more investment grate ratings, fewer junk ratings. This effect curiously is well-correlated to T-Bond prices, most of the time. I cannot explain that phenomenon.

[dTraderB]

Holger Zschaepitz

@Schuldensuehner

·

Apr 30

 

The biggest bond bubble in 800yrs continues to deflate after the latest inflation numbers shake up the bond markets. The value of global bonds has dropped by another $493bn this week, bringing total loss from ATH to $7.94tn.

 

 

BOND losses are HUGE! 

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

2h

 

As we race toward a depression in economic activity, I find it curious that the bond rating agencies are giving out more investment grate ratings, fewer junk ratings. This effect curiously is well-correlated to T-Bond prices, most of the time. I cannot explain that phenomenon.

 

[dTraderB]

HUGE LOSSES!

 

Holger Zschaepitz

@Schuldensuehner

·

6h

 

Global stocks lost $2.7tn in mkt cap this week as US GDP surprisingly declined, on a decidedly mixed set of results from FAAMG complex, recession fears & persistent concerns that Fed will still aggressively raise rates. Global stocks now worth $105tn, equal to 124% of global GDP.

 

 

Holger Zschaepitz

 

@Schuldensuehner

·

Apr 30

 

The biggest bond bubble in 800yrs continues to deflate after the latest inflation numbers shake up the bond markets. The value of global bonds has dropped by another $493bn this week, bringing total loss from ATH to $7.94tn.

 

 

BOND losses are HUGE! 

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

2h

 

As we race toward a depression in economic activity, I find it curious that the bond rating agencies are giving out more investment grate ratings, fewer junk ratings. This effect curiously is well-correlated to T-Bond prices, most of the time. I cannot explain that phenomenon.

 

 

[dTraderB]

The Spectator Index

 

@spectatorindex

·

41m

 

Eurozone annual inflation. April, 2021: 1.6% April, 2022: 7.5%

[dTraderB]

Opened 3 ES HEDGE SHORT late on Friday after ES jumped from lows -- QQQ & SPY rallies about 2 points then dropped a bit 

 

I am looking for a low into the FED MEETING. then a rally, and then bigger drop ....

 

28 QQQ CALLS
2 NQ HEDGE SHORT

 

32 SPY CALLS
3 ES HEDGE SHORT

 

INDA, XLF stock

CALLS -- NFLX, ARRK, IWM, SMH,

TESLA SPREAD

TLT CALLS

 

2 YEN SHORT

1 CRUDE LONG

[dTraderB]

NET LONG 

Will gradually increase long positions

BUT RISK OFF,  preserving great profits in 2022