203 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

The damage to the market by this quadruple witching is impressive..............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2022 - 10:03 AM.

[12SPX]

It appears bad however this expiration is no different than any other when you look at the longer term, its a down cycle but average.  With that sell off I did add to my longs again though, starting to approach my levels of shorts at year end but did get it down to that nice even level of 3800.... 

[redfoliage2]

You see a change in the new options cycle?

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2022 - 10:13 AM.

[K Wave]

Trannies back to green momentarily.

 

Now we see if was last gasp..or..they are just about to turn back up....

[K Wave]

TSLA winding up the 1 min..should see something happen soon

[K Wave]

TSLA goin' full arrowhead on 5 min...any time now...

[dTraderB]

A permabull who called the TOP and was then a permabear -- great timing, is now calling a bottom....

 

I want to wait and watch until next week, with low risk, net LONG but trimming, would want to still be net LONG even if slightly so. 

 

 

Is There A Bottom In Sight?

 

I believe it's arrived.  If you're an EarningsBeats.com member, you know all the warnings that I passed along in late 2021 and early 2022.  In our MarketVision 2022 event on Saturday, January 8th, I showed on a chart how I believed 2022 would unfold.  I suggested the first six months would be very bearish with a cyclical bear market gripping Wall Street.  I pointed to a potential low in the 3500-3800 area.  Yesterday's low was 3639, right in the middle of that range.  But that's not why I'm calling the bottom.  I also pointed out at the beginning of the year that sentiment needed a "reset".  The 253-day moving average of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) reached a level where the bull market was no longer sustainable.  There were simply too many longs.  That 253-day moving average of the CPCE has been rising all year long as everyone grows ridiculously bearish.  For this article, however, I want you to simply look at this 5-day moving average of the equity only put call ratio.  Focus on two things.  First, the ridiculously low level of this ratio in 2020 and 2021.  Everyone was on the call bandwagon, believing prices could not go lower.  Second, check out what happens whenever this 5-day moving average reaches .80 (green horizontal line):

 

 

I've drawn green-dotted vertical lines at those .80 levels.  Look at what happens to the S&P 500 after sentiment reaches this extreme bearish level.  Ask yourself, "what is the risk when the 5-day moving average reaches .80?  Is it riskier to be long or to be short?"  I'm fairly certain that if you objectively look at this chart, you'll see that when this 5-day moving average of the CPCE reaches .80 or higher, you want to be long.  But keep in mind this is simply a short-term directional indicator.  It doesn't always mark THE ultimate bottom.  In my opinion, rotation and intermarket relationships helps us to mark that.  As I've been pointing out to EB.com members this week, the rotation has turned much, much more bullish as well.

 

It's time to go long.

 

https://www.earnings...public/main.cfm

[dTraderB]

closing ES & NQ hedge short opened today, bank that

holding 4 each, will reopen higher

 

also closing a few UVXY PUTS  -- maybe about 10 to 12

[12SPX]

Could be possible at least for the coming expiration cycle.  Don't have my numbers yet but unless we have an absolute miracle and get back above 3901 there is a good possibility that we are near at least a short term bottom.  Will it hold who knows but as I like to say, the market never goes up forever and never goes down forever, there's always something in between lol!!!! 

[redfoliage2]

Monday is a US market holiday?