Below may apply in normal times but maybe the nature of the market, polls, sentiment etc have changed -- not abnormal since markets change continuously
Many interpretations, analysis etc are now not applicable in these extraordinary past 2 years of the COVID era, war in Ukraine etc
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps Back Above 50%Summary
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.6 percentage points to 19.4%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, plunged by 9.9 percentage points to 22.2%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 11.5 percentage points to 58.3%.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) is –38.9% and is unusually low for the 20th time in 23 weeks.
Most of this week’s responses were recorded prior to yesterday when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 75-basis-point interest rate hike.
Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and for the bull-bear spread. Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has also underperformed following periods of below-average neutral sentiment, though the link is weaker.
https://seekingalpha...bove-50-percent
