203 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

 

Walter Deemer

 

@WalterDeemer

 

Today was a 98% downside day. Oct 19, 1987 still holds the record: 99.8%.

 

We are real close to the target now...

 

So ideally, Fed does .75 and everyone freaks out....time to buy...(for a bounce, bear nowhere near over)

Edited by K Wave, 14 June 2022 - 07:31 AM.

[K Wave]

Crude bulls still hangin' in there after yesterday's recapture of key level.

 

Gasoline starting to diverge though...

 

CRB index may have also finally peaked for this wave up after over a triple off the Covid low

 

Guessing we are close timewise to a top...

[dTraderB]

Will add ES & NQ HEDGE SHORTS until after FED PRESS CONFERENCE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD MORE LONGS Below ES 3740

I think ES WILL BOTTOM at 3200-3300 zone.
WHEN??
COULD BE NOW IN JUNE or sometime before end of August.

[dTraderB]

Precisely my sentiments, hence HUGE LONG POSITION, less hedges, but will add hedges on early stages of rally. Want to add to current 42 UVXY PUTS & 55 TLT CALLS.
90 SPY CALLS & 96 QQQ CALLS. Almost all are SEP. Also holding ETFS, stocks & stock options...

"Now let me discuss current sentiment for one second....

We've seen the highest equity-only put call ratios since March 2020 over the past two sessions - Friday at .89 and Monday at .85. This is the "reset" that I've been referring to all year. We needed bad news and we needed for traders to throw in the towel and jump all over equity puts. We're getting both. In fact, we have June options expiration on Friday and we now show the most net in-the-money put premium EVER! On the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100) alone, the net in-the-money put premium totals over $5 billion!!!!!

What does this mean? It means we could see a MASSIVE move ahead. ..."


https://stockcharts....t-beaut-92.html

[12SPX]

Slow start this morning as its my birthday today, tough leaving my teens to become an adult lol!!  Nonetheless didn't think the rally would hold overnight and think we'll float for awhile before picking today's real direction.  Interesting thing about rolling over to the September contract is that it is now above the cash price on the S&P500, back to what it was years ago, will be interesting to see if it holds.  Other thing is that there is barely a difference between the two so it was easy to roll over to it keeping my average long at 3897.  Might not change today as I prefer just buying when the market is down.  Next two days are going to be interesting as puts are pricing in the end of two worlds which indicates were likely closer to the end here then anything.  Good example is on the initial bounce to 3800 plus yesterday, my 3800 put was showing profits from my $38.66 sell.  Last nights low when we touched 3800 plus was $59.  That's an insane price with 3.5 days left of trading, way to much premium.  Even the 3700's low was only $25 and unbelievably the 3500 June option is still worth $6, insane!!!  All June options and futures contracts expire with the first trades on the cash S&P500 stocks Friday morning.  Stupidest expiration settlement ever, still can't believe its done lol!!  Anyhow, think volatility is really going to kick up in the next two days as I'm sure everyone is thinking the same as all I'm hearing is crash crash crash lol!!  Most important thing is that it's going to be a fun ride as people battle over their convictions of where the market is going..... 

[12SPX]

Well there we go did get negative so lowered my long down to 3884 and done for the day.  Hope this doesn't turn into a 2 week period lol!! 

[dTraderB]

Getting too tense with such big swings in net account equity with minor swings in stock & options prices!

Either I close some positions or add more HEDGES

But want to wait for higher prices for both ...

[dTraderB]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!  

Take time off to spend with family... have a drink on me, I will have a few after 4pm today.... 

 

Slow start this morning as its my birthday today, tough leaving my teens to become an adult lol!!  Nonetheless didn't think the rally would hold overnight and think we'll float for awhile before picking today's real direction.  Interesting thing about rolling over to the September contract is that it is now above the cash price on the S&P500, back to what it was years ago, will be interesting to see if it holds.  Other thing is that there is barely a difference between the two so it was easy to roll over to it keeping my average long at 3897.  Might not change today as I prefer just buying when the market is down.  Next two days are going to be interesting as puts are pricing in the end of two worlds which indicates were likely closer to the end here then anything.  Good example is on the initial bounce to 3800 plus yesterday, my 3800 put was showing profits from my $38.66 sell.  Last nights low when we touched 3800 plus was $59.  That's an insane price with 3.5 days left of trading, way to much premium.  Even the 3700's low was only $25 and unbelievably the 3500 June option is still worth $6, insane!!!  All June options and futures contracts expire with the first trades on the cash S&P500 stocks Friday morning.  Stupidest expiration settlement ever, still can't believe its done lol!!  Anyhow, think volatility is really going to kick up in the next two days as I'm sure everyone is thinking the same as all I'm hearing is crash crash crash lol!!  Most important thing is that it's going to be a fun ride as people battle over their convictions of where the market is going..... 

[12SPX]

Thanks, normally today is my test day that I have done since I was a teenager where I run a couple of miles to see how fast I can still go, how much I can lift , what I weigh, blood pressure etc lol!!  Sadly the weather is dismal here so it makes it hard to run so that won't be happening but maybe start drinking early lol!!  Nothing to watch here anyhow lol!!! 

[dTraderB]

crude oil options not best way to trade that contract.... but with such wild swings am considering PUTS or SPREADS... will place order