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JULY Bull Run -- New 2022 Lows ahead


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:10 AM

Good to be back after an extended vacation.  Will take another one in August, shorter but planned already, so I will be ready for the September to January period. 

 

Am NET LONG but will start taking profits on UVXY PUTS, TLT, SPY & QQQ CALLS, and others. Will hold XLF, INDA, a few others. 

The expected JULY BULL RUN has been somewhat lethargic this year but has finally produced at least a 4% rally so far. 

 

I still see NEW 2022 LOWS ahead. mainly because of an unstable Geopolitical situation, possible Russian GAS strangle that will affect WU, and the persistent CHINA COVID net-zero disaster. 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:13 AM

Big move up on Friday, cleared the zero line...

McClellanOsc_1342.gif

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:17 AM

BOND RALLY? yes.... has been a good time for my TLT trades since I started trading CALLS earlier this year. 

I may trade COPPER Long starting today with small position....
 

"Spot copper prices have been crashing from a high of $4.87 per pound on March 8, 2022 down to $3.22 on July 14.  Gold has been trying to keep up with copper’s plunge, but it has been pretty tough to do that.  The result is that the copper/gold ratio has been falling rapidly, because copper is dropping faster than gold.

That should mean a drop for long term interest rates, if the relationship was working normally.  But instead, bond traders are focused on the CPI growing at 9.1% per year, and PPI growing at 11.3%, and they are thinking that perhaps the privilege of earning 2.96% for loaning money to Uncle Sam for 10 years is not such a good deal. 

This is creating the type of big spread that has led to big reversals for bond yields in the past.  But how can bond yields turn lower if inflation is still so high?  That is the conventional thinking question.  But the message from the copper/gold ratio is that something else is cooking that the conventional thinkers are not yet contemplating.  And what’s cooking typically leads to lower interest rates."

https://www.mcoscill...per_gold_ratio/



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:19 AM

Futures Update #ES_F: Good follow through here from Friday's rally setup >3800 and now basing in the overnight session. 3895-3900 remains next up and ideally bulls hold 3855 overnight
 
Key not to mix up styles. As a day trader, my focus is *only* the next 1-2 intraday moves (perhaps next couple days for runners). Where
#ES_F

is 1 month=casual interest only. Not letting long-term bias affect day trades was big profit booster for me. Vice versa for swing traders

 

 

 
 


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:21 AM

His chart storm is very interesting!  Also, his polls

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Gazvva5v_normal.jpg
 
Charts from the weekly surveys by

-- fundamentals sentiment bouncing along the bottom, technicals sentiment still moderately optimistic

 

 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:22 AM

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    18.3%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    21.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    48.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    11.6%
1,107 votes·Final results

 

His chart storm is very interesting!  Also, his polls

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Gazvva5v_normal.jpg
 
Charts from the weekly surveys by

-- fundamentals sentiment bouncing along the bottom, technicals sentiment still moderately optimistic

 

 

 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:23 AM

BONDS net BULLISH 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    38.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    17.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    37.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    6.5%
795 votes·Final results


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:25 AM

That's a VERY BIG 20-point gap for the BULLS!   Partly right  ---

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    59.6%
  •  
    DOWN
    40.4%
2,821 votes·

Final results



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:26 AM

This is a good thread

Today was an 88.6% upside day, which was better than the 84% and 85% downside days Monday and Thursday. Keep in mind,
though, July 7 was an 89.7% upside day, and the lack of follow through the next day nipped that one in the bud. Monday will thus be quite instructive.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 06:26 AM

GOLDMAN beats.... could be a VERY BIG RALLY today