BOND RALLY? yes.... has been a good time for my TLT trades since I started trading CALLS earlier this year.
I may trade COPPER Long starting today with small position....
"Spot copper prices have been crashing from a high of $4.87 per pound on March 8, 2022 down to $3.22 on July 14. Gold has been trying to keep up with copper’s plunge, but it has been pretty tough to do that. The result is that the copper/gold ratio has been falling rapidly, because copper is dropping faster than gold.
That should mean a drop for long term interest rates, if the relationship was working normally. But instead, bond traders are focused on the CPI growing at 9.1% per year, and PPI growing at 11.3%, and they are thinking that perhaps the privilege of earning 2.96% for loaning money to Uncle Sam for 10 years is not such a good deal.
This is creating the type of big spread that has led to big reversals for bond yields in the past. But how can bond yields turn lower if inflation is still so high? That is the conventional thinking question. But the message from the copper/gold ratio is that something else is cooking that the conventional thinkers are not yet contemplating. And what’s cooking typically leads to lower interest rates."