152 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

FF:  Dropping below zero tomorrow or Monday

 

Typical OPEX movements next week -- down then UP

 

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

DALY live interview on BLOOMBERG: 

 

FED'S DALY: WE ARE STILL A LONG WAY FROM THE RISK OF A RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC RISK IS EXCESSIVE INFLATION.

 

FED'S DALY: BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO TIP THE LABOUR MARKET OVER, A 50BPS HIKE MAKES SENSE.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT A SLOWER ECONOMY BUT NO RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS TO STAY TIGHT.

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Recently, FED has been de-pivoting after an apparent PIVOT ... e.g.

 

FED'S DALY: LONGER-RUN INFLATION IS DRIVEN BY CORE SERVICES, WHICH ARE STILL RISING RAPIDLY.

 

FED'S DALY: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE.

 

DALY live interview on BLOOMBERG: 

 

FED'S DALY: WE ARE STILL A LONG WAY FROM THE RISK OF A RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC RISK IS EXCESSIVE INFLATION.

 

FED'S DALY: BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO TIP THE LABOUR MARKET OVER, A 50BPS HIKE MAKES SENSE.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT A SLOWER ECONOMY BUT NO RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS TO STAY TIGHT.

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Made 53.5 points on 2 NQ trades -- mainly from DALY's "50 bps rate hike in September" response in BLOOMBERG interview

Popped and then dropped, all in a few minutes

 

Good Night

 

 

Recently, FED has been de-pivoting after an apparent PIVOT ... e.g.

 

FED'S DALY: LONGER-RUN INFLATION IS DRIVEN BY CORE SERVICES, WHICH ARE STILL RISING RAPIDLY.

 

FED'S DALY: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE.

 

DALY live interview on BLOOMBERG: 

 

FED'S DALY: WE ARE STILL A LONG WAY FROM THE RISK OF A RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC RISK IS EXCESSIVE INFLATION.

 

FED'S DALY: BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO TIP THE LABOUR MARKET OVER, A 50BPS HIKE MAKES SENSE.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT A SLOWER ECONOMY BUT NO RECESSION.

 

FED'S DALY: I WANT THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS TO STAY TIGHT.

 

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

From MarketWatch:

The latest action in stocks may be a concern for the bulls. The S&P 500’s initial surge on Thursday to fresh three-month highs fizzled as the session wore on. The “peak inflation rally” faded.

Futures early on Friday are firmer again, but inevitably there are some observers still wary of the recent bounce.

 

“Obviously, a bear market rally, and a sustainable recovery are similar at the start. We must see consolidation to call the end of the year-to-date bear market,” says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

The good news for bulls is that this is a Tom Jones rally, as in his famous song: “It’s not unusual.”

Specifically, there is nothing superlative about the market’s, notably the Nasdaq’s, resurgence off its mid-June trough, suggests Bespoke Investment Group.

“The 20% rally/decline threshold is the most commonly used to define bull and bear markets….The Nasdaq Composite reached the 20% rally level on a closing basis [on Wednesday], which ended the bear market for the index that began on November 19th, 2021,” Bespoke writes in a note.

 

“What is most striking about the just-ended Nasdaq bear market is just how average it was. From peak to trough, the Nasdaq fell 33.7% over 209 calendar days from November 19th, 2021 to June 16th, 2022. The average bear market since 1970 has seen the index fall 35.5% over 201 calendar days,” Bespoke adds.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Technical factors, however, may be a red flag, at least in the short term. The 14-day relative strength index for S&P 500 futures on Friday morning was just above 75, according to CMC Markets, signaling the underlying market is in overbought territory. Similarly, the RSI for Apple (AAPL), the stock with largest S&P 500 weighting, was 74.

Meanwhile, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, notes that the recent move lower in the CBOE Vix (VIX) to its long-run average of 20, normally a sign of calmer markets, has not been accompanied by the expected reduction in correlations between stock sectors.

High correlations between sectors such as large cap tech, communication services, consumer discretionary, financials, and health care are usually a sign of a stressed market.

Source: DataTrek

“The VIX close at 20 today is promising something stocks have not yet actually delivered, namely a healthy decoupling of sector price action from the overall market,” says Colas.

“We have had a standing recommendation all year to consider buying stocks when the VIX gets around 36 (2 standard deviations from the mean) and lighten up when it gets close to 20. We are at the latter point now. As much as we remain bullish, stocks look overextended here,” he concludes.

[dTraderB]

Active morning session from about 5am

 

good long & short NQ trades

[dTraderB]

A retest of this week's high is most likely 

 

BUT, rallies have been sold recently so I expect a volatile Friday with minor gains

 

 

Active morning session from about 5am

 

good long & short NQ trades

[K Wave]

After the recovery overnight ES 4220 looks real important now...bulls still with ball until that is broken.

[12SPX]

Restless night of sleep matching the market, average short now 4223 will add if we keep moving up.  Market looking tired here to me and with expiration next week, call options still overpriced and my expiration cycle numbers quite a bit lower might be due for at least a bit of a pullback here.  Thank goodness its Friday though way to tired lol!!! 

[redfoliage2]

It's highly likely the recent gaps will be filled, maybe as soon as next week  ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 August 2022 - 08:45 AM.