226 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

I voted BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS

 

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

15h

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  15.6%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  13.6%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  52.7%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  18.1%

1,187 votes·8 hours left

[dTraderB]

I voted BULLISH FUNDAMENTALS  (falling yields)

PEAK YIELDS is behind us, but not necessarily a smooth path UP for BONDS

 

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

15h

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  31.3%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  10%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  48.2%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  10.6%

652 votes·8 hours left

 

 

I voted BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS

 

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

15h

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  15.6%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  13.6%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  52.7%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  18.1%

1,187 votes·8 hours left

 

[dTraderB]

Extremely BEARISH, 2 to 1 !!!  

Am very hesitant to call the other side of this POPULIST VIEW with such a huge margin of BEARS! 

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  33.8%
•  

  DOWN

  66.2%

4,752 votes·Final results

 

7:00 AM · Aug 20, 2022·

[dTraderB]

Well, my FF this week should be: DOWN DOWN DOWN for at least 3 days then UP into end of week

 

@hmeisler

·

22h

 

We have had last five weeks (if we include this week) as down. My observation in the past has been that my followers have tended on balance to get the underlying trend correct, even if it is not so each week.

 

 

Extremely BEARISH, 2 to 1 !!!  

Am very hesitant to call the other side of this POPULIST VIEW with such a huge margin of BEARS! 

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  33.8%
•  

  DOWN

  66.2%

4,752 votes·Final results

 

7:00 AM · Aug 20, 2022·

 

[dTraderB]

@yardeni

 

 

The Economic Week Ahead (August 22-26) The big event of the coming week will occur on Friday at 10:00 am EDT, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Full story and charts here:

 

https://www.yardeniq...k-ahead-august/

[dTraderB]

I hold similar views:

 

"For investors, the market is now back to highly overbought conditions. As shown, the market is not only testing resistance at the 200-dma but is also well deviated above the 50-dma with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back to more extreme overbought levels. The sell-off on Friday was expected, but we will have to wait and see if it is a one-day dip or a more sizeable retracement. We suspect we may see the latter with the MACD close to a sell signal."

The most logical retracement rallies are at the 100-dma (black-dotted line) and the 50% retracement level, coinciding with the 50-dma and previous support levels. A break below that, and we will retest lows.

As noted on Thursday,

“Such suggests that investors should consider taking profits and rebalancing portfolio risks while waiting for the market to pull back. A pullback would reduce the more extreme conditions and allow for a better risk/reward entry for increasing portfolio allocations. This rally has mostly focused on fundamentally sub-par companies, which now provides a better opportunity to swap into more fundamentally sound businesses.”

We are currently open to increasing equity exposure on a pullback to support. However, we are also well aware of the risk of a secondary decline if, as the FOMC minutes noted, the Fed does indeed further tighten monetary policy.

https://realinvestme...ites-the-bulls/

[dTraderB]

My weekly updating is completed, ready to trade later

 

CITI thinks the bear market rally is over.. 

 

“Bear market rallies are often sentiment driven, as the market just becomes too bearish,” wrote Citi Research strategists led by Dirk Willer, the managing director and head of emerging market strategy, in a note on Thursday. “More fundamentally, many bear-market rallies are driven by hopes that the Fed comes to the rescue. The current one is no different, as the Fed pivot narrative has been an important catalyst.” 

Don’t miss: Here are 5 reasons that the bull run in stocks may be about to morph back into a bear market

In particular, the chart below shows that the AAII bull-bear indicator, one of the closely watched investor sentiment surveys, is almost back to levels where bear-market rallies peak, with expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months increasing 1.2 percentage points to 33.3% in the week of Aug. 15, while bearish sentiment increased 0.5 percentage point to 37.2%.

[Rich C]

dTraderb, lots of good information, THANKS!  Your opinions have been very good over time IMO!

[steadyquest]

The dollar-adjusted qqq daily chart has a close fit count in the same time frame as the dollar-priced chart, but is projecting a further 4.5% upside from Friday's close.  Will the buyers show up next week and test last week's dip?

 

[pdx5]

dTraderb, lots of good information, THANKS!  Your opinions have been very good over time IMO!

I will second that motion.