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The BOUNCE, then the PLUNGE, again


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:02 PM

Same formula in a BEAR MARKET -- bounce, then plunge

 

Late today after a refreshing weekend off

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:19 PM

Friday's bounce in an OPEX week is not unusual. Some of my new LONGS finished GREEN or small losses. A most welcome profit in TESLA PUTS and another green day to finish a somewhat strange week in September. 

August and September have been my worst months but this year I may be profitable in both if I can hold on to the 3.8% profit so far in September. 

 

Another FED week, expect more HAWKISH talk from the FED including from  POWELL at the news conference. 

 

It could be a a big drop for the rest of September unless the FED reverses hawkishness and/or WALL ST BIG MONEY decides it is time to BUY. 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:26 PM

I am buying XLF, started with a small position, bought another 200 last week.  Still in the red but this is a LT trade & I will buy all the way down ...

 

Even NVDA bounced to finish green on Friday after my initial long earlier; ditto for FEDEX that finished off the lows and gave me a small profit. 

 

"

Do you know which sectors historically do the best when Interest Rates are rising?

Financials and Energy.

Are interest rates rising?

Well, they're not falling....

And so how are Financials and Energy doing?

The strength in Energy stocks is no secret, especially around here, but are financials joining as well?

Yes. They are.

Financials just closed the week and the highest level relative to the S&P500 since March.

 

The sectors that should be leading in this environment are leading.

Anything else would be weird.

This is perfectly normal behavior for this type of market environment.

I like this chart above because I think it's telling that story well. It's also one we definitely need to keep an eye on heading into the Fall."



#4 K Wave

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:37 PM

BTC pounding on that 19400 pivot again as The Great ETH Purge continues...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:37 PM

HUGE margin of bearishness!    I would have voted BULLISH Technicals

 

 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    13.3%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    58.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    17%
1,119 votes·Final results


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:38 PM

I would have voted BULLISH Fundamentals 

 

Replying to
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    27.3%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11.9%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    51.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    9.5%
790 votes·Final results


#7 K Wave

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:38 PM

Friday's bounce in an OPEX week is not unusual. Some of my new LONGS finished GREEN or small losses. A most welcome profit in TESLA PUTS and another green day to finish a somewhat strange week in September. 

August and September have been my worst months but this year I may be profitable in both if I can hold on to the 3.8% profit so far in September. 

 

Another FED week, expect more HAWKISH talk from the FED including from  POWELL at the news conference. 

 

It could be a a big drop for the rest of September unless the FED reverses hawkishness and/or WALL ST BIG MONEY decides it is time to BUY. 

FED still WAY too far behind the curve to even consider backing off.

 

Unless perhaps market actually crashed next 2 days.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:39 PM

I am also  leaning this way:

 

Replying to
I think the fundamentals are getting closer to dictating a near neutral position on bonds and stocks. I've been voting bearish fundamentals on both. This is the first week I'm converting to bearish technicals on both, as my primary view. I nibbled on some bonds this week.

 

I would have voted BULLISH Fundamentals 

 

Replying to
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    27.3%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    11.9%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    51.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    9.5%
790 votes·Final results

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:44 PM

NQ jumped a "huge 5 points" in that 1m bar! 

Just watching now ... only 2 trades so far, both SHORT

 

Also bearish, but not as wide a margin as the one above:

 

 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    45.9%
  •  
    DOWN
    54.1%
5,101 votes·Final results


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 05:46 PM

Similar to my FF:

Replying to
Hammer candle on many of the daily charts, pop into fomc and then dump imo.
 

 

NQ jumped a "huge 5 points" in that 1m bar! 

Just watching now ... only 2 trades so far, both SHORT

 

Also bearish, but not as wide a margin as the one above:

 

 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    45.9%
  •  
    DOWN
    54.1%
5,101 votes·Final results