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The BOUNCE, then the PLUNGE, again


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#21 linrom1

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 11:35 PM

THIS is BIG! 

BIDEN: IN THE CASE OF A CHINESE INVASION, THE AMERICAN MILITARY WOULD PROTECT TAIWAN.

50% AWOL before deployment. giveup.gif



#22 dTraderB

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 07:16 AM

Basically, my overall strategy is to BUY THE DIPS below ES 3800 to build a HUGE LONG position in both LONG TERM & RISK PORTFOLIOS. 

 

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLF, and stock CALLS, also stocks, other ETFs,  TLT CALLS,  UVXY CALLS if market drops sharply 

 

TECH STOCKS, also BANKS, and a few high risk trades -- mainly ST & VST trades

 

My FF is Peak Yields are here now or past us; peak DOLLAR is also here now or past us..... 

 

More importantly, Peak FED HAWKISHNESS is here or very soon; also, FEAR is still high but receding, not that there will not be a LOWER LOW but investors and traders are more willing to BUY than at anytime during the first 6 months of 2022

 

LT, ST, and VST holdings. 

 

I am in a RISK-OFF trading mode for the rest of September  -- unless market drops below ES 3800 and closed below 3750 -- will then start loading huge quantities of LONGs

 

I will trade LONGS in a RISK-OFF mode during the final 3 months of 2022. 



#23 12SPX

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 07:49 AM

Looks like the crash hopers are going to be disappointed this morning as the market is down once again but its just remaining in its grind mode because that's just what we are in.  I'll freely admit when I'm wrong but so far that is how we got to these levels and think that that is how we go to lower levels when we get there.  The final leg down will likely be a little more intense but this market is totally interacted with each other, very controlled and boring, grind grind grind or as d's commentator said "neutral"...  Will be an interesting week with the Fed meeting and I'm still sticking my neck out saying they won't be as aggressive as people think they will be so we'll likely see a bit of a rally but either way I'll just trade it and start placing more option sells and adjust my long build from 3906, still drinking coffee so far!!!! 



#24 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 08:34 AM

Let's see if SPX 3800 can hold by the end of the week...................


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 September 2022 - 08:37 AM.


#25 K Wave

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 08:44 AM

Rut bulls have stated their case at 1780 on the open today. If and when that breaks, Look Out Below...

And now looks like next push on Tesla under $300 is likely the sell signal.

In the meantime we see if they can hold things together until Fed...

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#26 12SPX

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 09:18 AM

Good to hear the crash talk but not looking so good for them, now a buy program took us positive for the day and a sell program is trying to take us down, maybe its Douglas's post about the Fed "adding" liquidity this week.  Nonetheless hopefully we don't rally to much going into the announcement otherwise we likely will sell off a bit. 



#27 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 09:21 AM

Rut bulls have stated their case at 1780 on the open today. If and when that breaks, Look Out Below...

And now looks like next push on Tesla under $300 is likely the sell signal.

In the meantime we see if they can hold things together until Fed...

If the Fed talking hawkish again I'd expect SPX to go 3700 in a hurry.  I see a retest of June's low looks unavoidable looking on the SPX weekly chart  .................


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 September 2022 - 09:25 AM.


#28 MikeyG

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 09:26 AM

 

Rut bulls have stated their case at 1780 on the open today. If and when that breaks, Look Out Below...

And now looks like next push on Tesla under $300 is likely the sell signal.

In the meantime we see if they can hold things together until Fed...

If the Fed talking hawkish again I'd expect SPX to go 3700 in a hurry.  A retest of June's low looks unavoidable looking on the SPX weekly chart  .................

 

3700 is in play as long as rate keep moving higher, ten year yield is above 350 now



#29 pdx5

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 09:36 AM

I am not seeing the ingedients for a crash. May be I need a visit to the eye doctor. A crash requires surprise event. 

What could be the surprise here? FED is already talking with bravado. Unemployment is non-existent. Help wanted signs every where.

Burger flippers at McDonald's in my town can't find workers at $12 to start, Amazon minimum wage is now $25/hour?

Corprate earnings of SP500 are not crashing. Inflation is steady at around 8.5%.

 

So yes, grind down towards 3500 SPX in a month or two is possible. I will certainly nibble at 3800, bite at 3600 and gorge below 3400. I never sell anything in less than 12 months after purchase.

 

Looks like the crash hopers are going to be disappointed this morning as the market is down once again 


Edited by pdx5, 19 September 2022 - 09:38 AM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#30 K Wave

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 09:55 AM

Here comes the obligatory back test of the breach area on bitcoin...now we see..

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy