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The BOUNCE, then the PLUNGE, again


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#261 steadyquest

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 05:38 PM

Or - we are only half way to the top and about to have our faces ripped off as equities are bought and held as a store of value against the relentless inflation.

 

spy-tlt2.png



#262 dTraderB

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 06:47 PM

Norseman has been consistent in his call for a LOW -- not yet in place, he insists, since last year

 

 
I’ll post when I’m going in for the LT reverse in a big way. Don’t get confused people on ST/LT plays. Since 11/4/21 I’ve never made mention of being LT bullish and calling for Major Bottom in. I will when I believe it’s in and I’ll be piling in..we aren’t there yet.
 
 


#263 dTraderB

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 06:50 PM

Well, the Owner of this has a interesting comment:
 

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator (classic version, not ratio-adjusted) is down to -303. That is officially "pretty darned oversold" territory.
 

McClellanOsc_1390.gif



#264 dTraderB

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 06:51 PM

Note EXTREME OVERSOLD can be removed with a ST rally... 

and then plunge continues -- my FF

 

Well, the Owner of this has a interesting comment:
 

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator (classic version, not ratio-adjusted) is down to -303. That is officially "pretty darned oversold" territory.
 

McClellanOsc_1390.gif



#265 dTraderB

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 06:53 PM

So... it will be a long & punishing recession?? 

 

1-10_spread_sep2022.gif

 

September 22, 2022

 

Inverted yield curves have a perfect track record going back decades for predicting recessions.  So let not your heart be troubled about the question of whether we are going to have a recession.  We are for sure going to have one, so you don’t need to worry over that question any more.

The question we should still worry about, though, is what that means for the stock market, and the answer there is not as clear.  It can be possible to see stock prices go up with an inverted yield curve.

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...ns_2024_bottom/

 

 

Note EXTREME OVERSOLD can be removed with a ST rally... 

and then plunge continues -- my FF

 

Well, the Owner of this has a interesting comment:
 

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator (classic version, not ratio-adjusted) is down to -303. That is officially "pretty darned oversold" territory.
 

McClellanOsc_1390.gif

 



#266 steadyquest

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 08:12 PM

Here's a daily chart of the spy / tlt ratio.  I've marked the first two steps of a possible up-count.  Today's candle could have tagged the first level that was missed on the way up.  Today's candle also backtested the 50-day, after yesterday's near-backtest of the 100-day was followed by a strong gap up this morning.  What's interesting about the proposed count is that it could potentially terminate at about 5.604, very close to the 5.608 potential termination of the previously posted weekly count.

 

spy-tlt3.png       



#267 steadyquest

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 10:28 PM

Looks like the first level was actually hit pretty accurately by the low of 8/29, prior to hitting the second level.

 

spy-tlt3a.png



#268 K Wave

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 04:40 AM

BTC reversing back down...back below 18.8....and all the pieces for the big leg down in place..

 

Gold may be just about to lose the HUGE pivot at 1660 area...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#269 K Wave

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 04:43 AM

Palladium finally busting out of the humongous wedgie??

Hope so...short a lot of it as of last night on the 5 min failure

 

PA.png

 

PA.png


Edited by K Wave, 23 September 2022 - 04:44 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#270 K Wave

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 04:47 AM

BTC got stuffed by the 15 min line...

 

Below 18.8, the abyss awaits....

 

btc.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy