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I am calling for a Crash ,,,,,


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#11 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 November 2022 - 08:37 AM

"Mr Wonderful" said it best!

 

Mr-Wonderful.jpg

My wife ran into Mr Wonderful going into a local restaurant.

She said "I know you, but I can't remember from where.

But I do remember that all your friends think you are a SMART {bleeeep}!"

He just smiled and said, "You are right" as he held the door for her.



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 03 November 2022 - 11:31 AM

HIGH PROBABILITY OF Post midterm crash or BIG DROP
UNLESS FED dials back some of that reckless ULTRA HAWKISH talk.

I am calling for a devastating crash in the US equity markets thru the end of this week.
 
I believe that the speech by Powell today was a crystal clear statement that he is going to put the US into a recession.
 
Of particular concern being the statement where he indicated that he would over shoot on the rate increases and then pull back as needed. 
 
thats the straw that breaks the Camels back ........



#13 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 November 2022 - 12:04 PM

Fun times ahead!

 

Homelessness rises 70% in CA capital. Inside staggering emergency...

 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/oregon...

WebOct 21, 2022 · More than 3,000 people are living without shelter in Portland, a 50% jump from 2019, and there are more than 700 encampments across the city,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11353093

WebOct 25, 2022 · Homeless encampments have spread into virtually every neighborhood of the City of Angels, while the number of homeless has climbed to an estimated 70,000

 

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years.

It warned the UK would face a "very challenging" two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 November 2022 - 12:13 PM.


#14 steadyquest

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Posted 03 November 2022 - 12:58 PM

Thankfully my ancestor hitched a ride to MA on the Elizabeth & Anne in 1635.



#15 pdx5

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Posted 03 November 2022 - 02:19 PM

Thankfully my ancestor hitched a ride to MA on the Elizabeth & Anne in 1635.

After Briton (UK) lost the colonies it was start of downhill. At one time the sun never set on all of British empire. 


Edited by pdx5, 03 November 2022 - 02:20 PM.

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#16 cycletimer

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Posted 04 November 2022 - 07:44 PM

There will be no 1929 style crash.  We are in a painful period for pension funds, equity managers, mutual funds and average joe passive index investors.  I do believe that this bear will not end until after we get thru 1st quarter, 2023.  We have a ways to go and a wide trading range but its definitely a traders market.  I have made two multi-month round trips in value, dividend-paying ETF's, such as DIVO, COWZ, and SHYD.  I buy on the big dips and then exit when market has legs.  I exited ALL ETF's last Thursday, Oct 27th and sitting, other than the LQD and ZROZ that I purchased today.  I am not about to go short, I'd rather earn cash interest and wait for the next painful downleg to purchase again. 



#17 Chilidawgz

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Posted 04 November 2022 - 08:48 PM

Sven


Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
 

#18 K Wave

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Posted 06 November 2022 - 02:35 PM

There will be no 1929 style crash.  We are in a painful period for pension funds, equity managers, mutual funds and average joe passive index investors.  I do believe that this bear will not end until after we get thru 1st quarter, 2023.  We have a ways to go and a wide trading range but its definitely a traders market.  I have made two multi-month round trips in value, dividend-paying ETF's, such as DIVO, COWZ, and SHYD.  I buy on the big dips and then exit when market has legs.  I exited ALL ETF's last Thursday, Oct 27th and sitting, other than the LQD and ZROZ that I purchased today.  I am not about to go short, I'd rather earn cash interest and wait for the next painful downleg to purchase again. 

It is possible that inflation keeps thing afloat in equities...but there is EPIC damage underneath the surface going on in Commercial Real Estate right now (just a teeny tiny part of the economy, eh?)

 

And folks may not be aware, bu the vast majority of CRE loans are not on long term fixed deals. (we are currently all cash, and looking to lever big time when reality hits hard).

But just a year ago, CRE loan brokers were pushing 6 month reset, cheap loans that you could get for near 2%. I looked up the index it was based on, and it was .09% at the time. That same index is now over 4%, and those folks that took those loans, (and there were many when Austin CRE cap rates were 3-4% and even under in many cases), are now on reset number 2.

Even if capped per rise, just gonna keep getting uglier.

 

I expect by Q4 2023, folks will realize just how bad it is underneath the surface right now, as it gets reported widely in the press about all the foreclosures.

 

Smart RE guys I know in Austin are already putting together investment funds to buy distressed properties down the road a bit. They all see it coming.

 

Meta backs out of plan to occupy 589K sf in Austin

https://therealdeal....k-sf-in-austin/


Edited by K Wave, 06 November 2022 - 02:36 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#19 12SPX

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Posted 07 November 2022 - 09:02 AM

With you there k, next year is going to be very enlightening for real estate, could easily see -50% haircuts in some areas.