37 replies to this topic

[jacek]

Thank you for the explanation

[EntropyModel]

FYI - flat open ..then runup but it's VERY choppy here - 

 - without the confirmation of bottom spotters I don't have valid buy signal

 

high odds this means the 'bounce' is counter trend and weak/risk of sudden reversal back down.

 

If SPX can hold 3940 and then take out AM high ..It's a ST buy - toward 4000SpxCash but not a good one on my system due to above.

 

* last nights commentary

Edited by EntropyModel, 08 December 2022 - 12:14 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Yep - chop ..and grind today.

 

This looks Short term buy signal in a Swing trend turning DOWN - as explained in that video above...this leads

to 'late' bounce that ends the move.

 

So my read here

 -  this is high odds a ST bounce that will lead to a lower low for this down move ..possibly a spike up first tomorrow AM.

[EntropyModel]

I don't have a Sell signal yet - but this grinding up move fits what I said above - looks very corrective...it likely has more time and bit more upward price to go.

 

I am looking for it to top out again below 4000'ish SpxCASH ..into another ST down move to 3900 area min ..timing wise harder to say,

but likely by tue-wed.

[EntropyModel]

I posted this on my intraday comments yesterday - amazing ..and followed exactly again today...if it continues we are down huge monday.

See the colored box sequence on the top left, and now - this is because of ALGO's controlling all the moves even down to most minor moves.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzY1OTgzNV8yMDY1MzAzNg

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 December 2022 - 06:20 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for sharing.

 

I feel like we are trying to outsmart HAL in 2001.

 

 

@elonmusk

·9h

If the Fed raises rates again next week, the recession will be greatly amplified

 

"The new dot plot and new economic forecasts are risk factors for gold. Message from Powell and other Fed speakers has been that the pace of hikes may slow, but we may still see a terminal rate that is somewhat higher," TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 10 December 2022 - 01:27 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Yes indeed Roger, more like trying to outsmart a trading version of 'deep blue' - I actually think it's made things easier because as an ex-programmer who worked in area

 of heuristics & arbitrage, I can see the ALGO patterns and it's not giving much away to say, that is how my model works - trying to copy the ALGO's 'game plan'

- it's really just the same as 'da boyz' game casino insiders targeting weak hands - so same game, just by new technology.

 

Not Short term comment here, and i'll update charts/video sometime with weekend on IT/Bigger picture to support this ...

I believe our situation is very clear right here

- Potential IT top has been made in right area of also a MAJOR top

- Model has Sell signals and many confirmations, a final one is a break under 3900 that doesn't immediately recover ..so a DAILY CLOSE under wd confirm

What is UNCLEAR

- whether we hold 3900 and get one last gasp run back up ...ST signals are currently AGAINST that ..monday-wed should answer

- Even if IT drop is confirmed - whether this Drop is start of drop to NEW LOWS - I/model  still  50/50 on that, I see 3750 is a LOCK for this move If 3900 lost on daily -- but model/setup 50% chance we get a run back up from 3750 to 200dma moving average into xmas ... TBD ...If IT sell signal is confirmed by price .

 

Longer Term - Model remains Extremely high confidence this is a Major bear rally in a longer cyclical bear - similar to ones in say 2001/2002 or 2008 or 1974 before at least one more down leg.

Edited by EntropyModel, 10 December 2022 - 05:38 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

The sad thing is that I took the hottest girl in High School to see that depressing 2001 Space Odyssey sci-fi. movie.

 

Not a good date movie for sure.

 

She just kept repeating Hal's movie line: "I can't do that Rogerdodger."  

Edited by Rogerdodger, 10 December 2022 - 07:15 PM.

[tradesurfer]

Martin Armstrong has been saying that it has been known for a long time that  January 2023 is a *major* target.

 

He also said that it would have been ideal for the market to make its low in that January 2023 target.  But that does not appear to be the case now.

 

That first week of January 2023 (January 6, 2023) is exactly 20 trading days from now.

 

 

Just about every market is showing January as a key target including the Russian ruble.

 

So the question is, is 20 trading days enough time for the market to plunge down and even break the previous lows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes indeed Roger, more like trying to outsmart a trading version of 'deep blue' - I actually think it's made things easier because as an ex-programmer who worked in area

 of heuristics & arbitrage, I can see the ALGO patterns and it's not giving much away to say, that is how my model works - trying to copy the ALGO's 'game plan'

- it's really just the same as 'da boyz' game casino insiders targeting weak hands - so same game, just by new technology.

 

Not Short term comment here, and i'll update charts/video sometime with weekend on IT/Bigger picture to support this ...

I believe our situation is very clear right here

- Potential IT top has been made in right area of also a MAJOR top

- Model has Sell signals and many confirmations, a final one is a break under 3900 that doesn't immediately recover ..so a DAILY CLOSE under wd confirm

What is UNCLEAR

- whether we hold 3900 and get one last gasp run back up ...ST signals are currently AGAINST that ..monday-wed should answer

- Even if IT drop is confirmed - whether this Drop is start of drop to NEW LOWS - I/model  still  50/50 on that, I see 3750 is a LOCK for this move If 3900 lost on daily -- but model/setup 50% chance we get a run back up from 3750 to 200dma moving average into xmas ... TBD ...If IT sell signal is confirmed by price .

 

Longer Term - Model remains Extremely high confidence this is a Major bear rally in a longer cyclical bear - similar to ones in say 2001/2002 or 2008 or 1974 before at least one more down leg.

[EntropyModel]

The sad thing is that I took the hottest girl in High School to see that depressing 2001 Space Odyssey sci-fi. movie.

 

Not a good date movie for sure.

 

She just kept repeating Hal's movie line: "I can't do that Rogerdodger."  

  ..I tried to like ur post, but the computer told me 'You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day" - which was infact zero likes, so the 'HAL' here on FF has banned  positivity