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CHINA - SANTA melt-up or ES 3600 revisited?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 05:43 PM

A sudden reversal of CHINA COVID policy announced earlier today could add a few % to the SANTA rally that started on Friday last. 

Or, the situation may be much worse than expected and this may lead to a panicked reaction from the Chinese authorities? 

 

ES could rally hard to above 4200, about 10 % from current levels or ... drop hard below 3700

 

My FF is a blistering Santa rally to at least ES 4100

https://news.sky.com...anuary-12774778

 

“I tell you that in this world there’s only one sickness, and that’s poverty and having no freedom, and we’ve got plenty of that,” said a Chongqing man whose tirade went viral in China.

“Give me liberty or give me death,” he shouted, using the Chinese version of the American revolutionary battle cry.



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 05:44 PM

Noted a few changing their bearish stance, not totally ....

Alf (@MacroAlf) tweeted at 2:41 pm on Mon, Dec 26, 2022:
China has recently printed money at a reasonable pace but consumers were locked home & couldn’t spend

Soon, they will be able to

A global recession remains my base case

But this narrative could be heavily challenged by the Chinese reopening

Being nimble will pay off in 2023
(https://twitter.com/...x8xam7HGlg&s=03



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 05:45 PM

Noted a few changing their bearish stance, not totally ....

Alf (@MacroAlf) tweeted at 2:41 pm on Mon, Dec 26, 2022:
China has recently printed money at a reasonable pace but consumers were locked home & couldn’t spend

Soon, they will be able to

A global recession remains my base case

But this narrative could be heavily challenged by the Chinese reopening

Being nimble will pay off in 2023
(https://twitter.com/...x8xam7HGlg&s=03



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 05:54 PM

The bearish case is a huge spike in COVID cases in CHINA as well as the Northern Hemisphere  (mainly US, Canada, EU) 

But, it appears many are looking beyond the ST risks and some are actually forecasting a Q1 rally 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 05:57 PM

BUT, all else pales into triviality after a thread by the Russian Minister -- with ELON MUSK supports! 

 

 
Replying to
Epic thread!!
 
 

 

https://twitter.com/...487338401206273

 

 

 
Replying to
Epic thread!!


#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 26 December 2022 - 06:32 PM

It was estimated that 80% of the population in Beijing had gone thru the coronavirus infection since Chinese authorities reversed the zero-COVID policy with more than 90% just suffered mild symptoms.  Yesterday Chinese authorities announced further relaxation of the national COVID policies.  I see the worst case feared is likely over there.


Edited by redfoliage2, 26 December 2022 - 06:38 PM.


#7 K Wave

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Posted 27 December 2022 - 07:44 AM

Tesla...wow

 

I mean I have heard of Hell Week, but looking like Telsa has chance at wire to wire Hell Month.

 

This is why I do not mess around with falling knives until at least VST stuff shows some signs of life....that is an epic 5 min decline.

 

At some point it will end, and could be a big rally, but this is a badly broken stock...

 

tsla.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 K Wave

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Posted 27 December 2022 - 07:46 AM

Apple not quite there yet....but it will eventually get there, as it is still wildly overvalued for the new reality.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 27 December 2022 - 08:01 AM

 

BUT, all else pales into triviality after a thread by the Russian Minister -- with ELON MUSK supports! 

 

 
Replying to
Epic thread!!
 
 

 

https://twitter.com/...487338401206273

 

 

 
Replying to
Epic thread!!

 

And the very 1st comment accuses Musk of being a Russian asset after responding to obvious satire....

 

We live in a seriously dumbed down world sadly...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 K Wave

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Posted 27 December 2022 - 08:22 AM

Naz one to watch today  11,100 and 10,900 looking key to future swing direction...so far 11,100 has held as resistance overnight

 

If Apple does not get up off the floor here and solidly reclaim 132, may not hold the cliff edge into year end...


Edited by K Wave, 27 December 2022 - 08:22 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy