OK - NOW i'm wrong on ST setup
This was definitely the lower odds path - mostly due to DOLLAR .. see chart and high correlation ..didn't expect dollar to drop again as I said.
I don't think it changes the IT as said - as I mentioned I believe were in a Range ...and 'complex corrective' currently, which is more difficult on the St.
I expect this to be some sort of 'c' of B type deal up here today, maybe tomorrow but expect it roll over shortly back down short of IT highs on SPx/comp (don't care about anything else..unless I state these are what i'm talking about) -
Just my view FWIW - not a trade, not even a signal.. ...I cd be wrong, no holy grails best systems are still wrong ..no really its true ..nothing is 100% ...no animals or those identifying as humans or 'other' were harmed
in the forming of this message - my lawyers and linguistics team approve this disclaimer.
Yeah that didn't take long did it?
We are already right back to the range - here is a chart of what that looks like in case its not obvious ...
IF (that's IF) we take out 3890 ..especially with a gap down ..we'll likely run back down into that range - a lower odds we hold and get another run up attempt IF ( conditional)
the DOLLAr keeps dropping against my setups here...the dollar has been the wildcard here.
BUT I see MORE DISTRIBUTION here because
- dollar is still low - so selling isn't due to dollar like the buying was
- LQ is MAX EXTREME UP - and prices havent' followed that much - that smells of distribution.
I also note we have the theme tune of 2022 again in early 2023 'everyone is so bearish that i'm bullish' hmm.didn't work well in 2022, and I don't expect it to in 2023 though I do
agree here there was bit too many bears ..but sentimet is NOT the DRIVING FORCE( causility) of markets at least not all the time ..big discussion, maybe in my next video newsletter.
Edited by EntropyModel, 09 January 2023 - 03:29 PM.