37 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

OK - NOW i'm wrong on ST setup 

 

This was definitely the lower odds path -  mostly due to DOLLAR .. see chart and high correlation ..didn't expect dollar to drop again as I said.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc1ODkzMF8yMDc5Mzk3Ng

 

I don't think it changes the IT as said - as  I mentioned I believe were in a Range ...and 'complex corrective' currently, which is more difficult on the St.

I expect this to be some sort of 'c' of B type deal up here today, maybe tomorrow but expect it roll over shortly back down short of IT highs on SPx/comp (don't care about anything else..unless I state these are what i'm talking about) -

 

DISCLAIMERS  -

 Just my view FWIW - not a trade, not even a signal.. ...I cd be wrong, no holy grails best systems are still wrong ..no really its true ..nothing is 100% ...no animals or those identifying as humans or 'other' were harmed

in the forming of this message - my lawyers and linguistics team approve this disclaimer.

 

Yeah that didn't take long did it?

We are already right back to the range - here is a chart of what that looks like in case its not obvious ...

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc1OTQxNF8yMDc5NDYyNQ

 

IF (that's IF) we take out 3890 ..especially with a gap down ..we'll likely run back down into that range - a lower odds we hold and get another run up attempt IF ( conditional)

the DOLLAr keeps dropping against my setups here...the dollar has been the wildcard here.

 

BUT I see MORE DISTRIBUTION here because

 - dollar is still low - so selling isn't due to dollar like the buying was

 - LQ is MAX EXTREME UP - and prices havent' followed that much - that smells of distribution.

 

I also note we have the theme tune of 2022 again in early 2023 'everyone is so bearish that i'm bullish' hmm.didn't work well in 2022, and I don't expect it to in 2023 though I do

agree here there was bit too many bears ..but sentimet is NOT the DRIVING FORCE( causility) of markets at least not all the time ..big discussion, maybe in my next video newsletter.

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 January 2023 - 03:29 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Just looked over the Short term model - sell signal here.

 

So this looks bearish to me ..Short term and IT ... I am expecting lower prices from here.( vicinity of todays prices).. at time it seems almost everyone is bullish because ..everyone is so bearish or other reasoning.

 

DISCLAIMERS  -

 Just my view FWIW  - just tell it as I see it straight no word games .. I  cd be wrong, no holy grails best systems are still wrong ..no really its true ..nothing is 100% ...no animals or those identifying as humans or 'other' were harmed

in the forming of this message - my lawyers and linguistics team approve this disclaimer.

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 January 2023 - 03:59 PM.

[linrom1]

Mickey Mouse finish at 103.00

[EntropyModel]

Mickey Mouse finish at 103.00

 

Thx for chart linrom1 -

 It still looks to me USD to trying to find a low - it really shd in this region down to 102 region ... I just saw POWELL is speaking tomorrow ..so probably more over sensitve reactions and volatility but maybe

that will put in a low ..If not, something I do not expect is going on ...but it ain't necessarily bullish for stocks longer term though short term like last 2 sessions it might be ....tbd

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 January 2023 - 04:16 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Today - 

this looks like the ALGO 'fishing expedition' pattern is back  IF  (conditional)  we see late selling, or selling tomorrow then its strong confirmation ..which is  bearish if so ...it means buyers are reaching exhaustion and ALGO's are gaming them.

 

FYI - WARNING: humor and sarcasm mode alert) -..I just heard a comet is going to destroy the earth, polls show so much bearishness on this news, that its a 100% foolproof buy. 

[EntropyModel]

Definitely fishing ALGO - but another LQ pump and enough fish to keep grinda going...once shorts cover etc I'm looking for powerful down move ..but impossible with this pattern to sat exactly when.

 

I will try to update my IT model today - pretty clear on that timeframe I think so I will go over that.

[EntropyModel]

The 'infinite Grinder-a-thon' is what the ALGO's do best ! classic one ...how many times have I seen this in last year!

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc3MDAzMl8yMDgwODU2Ng

 

 this looks VERY strongly to be attempt to clear the shorts before a massive leg down next back to the low s...but as I say, timing could be very slow (boat to China comment) ... the ALGO's seems to be able to draw on LQ limitless to target shorts ..it's freakin' amazing! ...but that appears the case from my signals .... probably going to use the CPI print tomorrow to flush stops as well - this is one FUGLY BS market right here! typical of the ALGO's ...i'm very confident ^this is what is going on.

 

 

ALSO the CBOE put/call data looks to have been fixed - we haven't had a bad/fake data for 8-10 days now and today is showing big amount of calls we've seen in long time

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc3MDA0Nl8yMDgwODU5NQ

 

As I mentioned Rydex showed too many shorts ..but this is typical ALGO clearance of them here .

Edited by EntropyModel, 11 January 2023 - 02:49 PM.

[12SPX]

As I mentioned earlier the actual prices for calls are indicating that people are screaming bullish which is never a good sign for the bulls in the long run and interestingly volatility is starting to pick up with an up market and that can be interesting also!!