37 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

WSJ:
Insiders typically have greater insight on the business outlook, and the fact that they haven’t been scooping up their own stocks as the market tumbles suggests they believe that it might not have bottomed just yet
If insiders remain on the sidelines, that could portend more trouble ahead for the stock market, strategists say.
“The thing that stands out right now is the lack of buying (their own stock) even though prices have come down so much,” said Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan who studies corporate-insider activity. “That’s kind of a warning.”
https://www.wsj.com/...und-11672889061

 

 

Friday/Monday might be interesting...

 

KITCO: "Traders and investors are now focusing on Friday morning’s U.S. December employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report."

 

News Bites

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop to 204,000

 

Jobs way up...with inflation way up?

https://www.dailydot...ollars-an-hour/

McDonald’s worker says manager gave employees $50 an hour to get them to work during staff shortage 'That's like 400 for an 8-hour shift.'

 

Thanks Roger for the links.

 

Yes, insiders are not buying - though its more complex than this but this is a fair statement.

 

I don't actually look at corporate buy/selling - I've seen all these kinds of data fail over years - I guess, due to efficient markets.

 

But I will say this - if were are talking INVESTORs - not traders...then key question is

 - : Is this is bull or bear trend ? and second

 -  is this close TURN of that trend if have the $ and patience to be a bit early and sit it out.

 

One way is to look at what PENSIONS and other BIG money who asks those questions is doing - and they are also 'insiders' to some extent...with assumptions they will not be far wrong.

The question is - how to determine that ..I  look are price & volume patterns and we can loosely call it ACCUMULATION and DISTRIBUTION.

What I see all of 2022* is very little accumulation, and alot of distribution -  or simply

 - NO INSTUTIONAL SUPPORT 

 

Until ^this changes - I see very low odds of bear trend turning up.

Edited by EntropyModel, 05 January 2023 - 03:10 PM.

[EntropyModel]

ST - really slow boring day LOL ..hence posting on other things...BUT I would say from experience

 - typically these setups end with a GAP and RUN ..i am looking for down here obviously...at least to 3670-3700 area.

..likely need a drop/gap under 3780 to trigger it.anything else is suspect of more 'range-a-thon'.

 

 - BUT ALSO - its very common to then REVERSE of that move, in this case back up ..so I will be looking for that signalsl/setup .

Edited by EntropyModel, 05 January 2023 - 03:13 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Short term setup - some'it like this ... 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0OTE3OF8yMDc3OTQ3MQ

[beta]

ST - really slow boring day LOL ..hence posting on other things...BUT I would say from experience

 - typically these setups end with a GAP and RUN ..i am looking for down here obviously...at least to 3670-3700 area.

..likely need a drop/gap under 3780 to trigger it.anything else is suspect of more 'range-a-thon'.

 

 - BUT ALSO - its very common to then REVERSE of that move, in this case back up ..so I will be looking for that signalsl/setup .

 

 

SPX 3605 is the key level to watch imo (see 3-year daily chart).   

[EntropyModel]

 

ST - really slow boring day LOL ..hence posting on other things...BUT I would say from experience

 - typically these setups end with a GAP and RUN ..i am looking for down here obviously...at least to 3670-3700 area.

..likely need a drop/gap under 3780 to trigger it.anything else is suspect of more 'range-a-thon'.

 

 - BUT ALSO - its very common to then REVERSE of that move, in this case back up ..so I will be looking for that signalsl/setup .

 

 

SPX 3605 is the key level to watch imo (see 3-year daily chart).   

 

 

Thx beta ..... 3780  refer to current very short term trading setup see chat I posted

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0OTE3OF8yMDc3OTQ3MQ

[EntropyModel]

ST - really slow boring day LOL ..hence posting on other things...BUT I would say from experience

 - typically these setups end with a GAP and RUN ..i am looking for down here obviously...at least to 3670-3700 area.

..likely need a drop/gap under 3780 to trigger it.anything else is suspect of more 'range-a-thon'.

 

 - BUT ALSO - its very common to then REVERSE of that move, in this case back up ..so I will be looking for that signalsl/setup .

 

More range-a-thon it is ... 'news' of whatever ( a spike in rydex shorting as well)

I don't expect this to change setup I posted...though a spike above to 'run the stops' is common .... but I don't see this changing the overall downward IT resolution ...

 

I am out rest of session - alot of snow where I live ..7000ft mountains in Arizona...so have to drive 40 minutes down to below snow line to run today...will be back later, 

 I expect more of the same as all week here. ..If I had to guess .. 3900 tag to run stops'ish ..then eek back down ..then down mon-or tue ...and maybe one or two more fakeouts

then finally a gap and run down sometimes next week - timing in this market is tricky, it's gotten' very 'slow' so to speak (indicating were still in large corrective not ready to collapse yet as I said)

Edited by EntropyModel, 06 January 2023 - 11:53 AM.

[pdx5]

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.

A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

[MikeyG]

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.
A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

IMO TA was saying it was going to pop all along, I have some stuff in the toolbox that nailed it.

[EntropyModel]

 

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.
A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

IMO TA was saying it was going to pop all along, I have some stuff in the toolbox that nailed it.

 

 

Everybody is a trading genius in hindsight it seems LOL

 

Pdx - how exactly does 'watching the news' help trade it? by time its out ...the move is over, and often will whipsaw - I'm guessing u have never traded Short term moves.

 

MikeyG - how about next time you post ur toolbox that nailed it BEFORE the move so rest of how see how good it is?

 

FYI - I did not make a call about today so not sure why your replying to me anyway , I said if it didn't gap down under 3780 ...it was still a range ..and it still is ..check a chart LOL

[MikeyG]

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.
A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

IMO TA was saying it was going to pop all along, I have some stuff in the toolbox that nailed it.

Everybody is a trading genius in hindsight it seems LOL

Pdx - how exactly does 'watching the news' help trade it? by time its out ...the move is over, and often will whipsaw - I'm guessing u have never traded Short term moves.

MikeyG - how about next time you post ur toolbox that nailed it BEFORE the move so rest of how see how good it is?

FYI - I did not make a call about today so not sure why your replying to me anyway , I said if it didn't gap down under 3780 ...it was still a range ..and it still is ..check a chart LOL

I usually will not post charts typically. But I do post trades sometimes. Just a few days ago, I posted that I was playing the long side.

Also, I never replied to you...I was responding to PDX's comment on how TA didn't call this move.

I have posted plenty of trades here over the past couple of years, and my record is on my website of the performance of my fund.

In addition, NYA made a multi week high today, so it's not as range bound as you say.

Edited by MikeyG, 06 January 2023 - 07:33 PM.