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#21 EntropyModel

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 07:38 PM

 

 

 

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.
A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

IMO TA was saying it was going to pop all along, I have some stuff in the toolbox that nailed it.

Everybody is a trading genius in hindsight it seems LOL

Pdx - how exactly does 'watching the news' help trade it? by time its out ...the move is over, and often will whipsaw - I'm guessing u have never traded Short term moves.

MikeyG - how about next time you post ur toolbox that nailed it BEFORE the move so rest of how see how good it is?

FYI - I did not make a call about today so not sure why your replying to me anyway , I said if it didn't gap down under 3780 ...it was still a range ..and it still is ..check a chart LOL

I usually will not post charts typically. But I do post trades sometimes. Just a few days ago, I posted that I was playing the long side.

I was responding to PDX's comment on how TA didn't call this move.

I have posted plenty of trades here over the past couple of years, and my record is on my website of the performance of my fund.

Also when I check a chart I see NYA made a multi week high today, so it's not as range bound as you say.

 

 

Yep I get that MikeyG  ...I also was more  referring to PDX than you tbh  he obviously has no clue about short term trading

 

i'm just saying in general, not to you specifically so sorry it came out that way, that If someone says it was easy to spot a move, why don't they post it before hand its then more convincing,   .. ... (note  im referring to SPX in all my posts).

 

Hopefully going forward PDX can tell us all beforehand the ST moves via the news that 'is the only thing needed to watch' , because I can throw away my system that only works 80% of time :-) and only

at certain setup poiints - must be great to have found the holy grail ! ( deep sarcasm mode engaged).


Edited by EntropyModel, 06 January 2023 - 07:41 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#22 EntropyModel

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 08:02 PM

Just my 2 cents but -

 

Here is what I respect

 - people who make clear unambiguous calls 

 - people who show their work, as much as is possible at least some reasoning that makes logical sense.

 

Here is what I don't respect:

 - people who attack directly or implied others calls, or work - what possible value does that have? if you know better, show it, prove it ! that is the best demonstration of your knowledge

 

I've seen it alot on this board and elsewhere, people get fed up with b.s.  ... it wont' effect me BTW LOL because I know my system is as good or better than anyone out there because i've been at this 23 years and

seen. heard, tried alot. ..experience is the only real teacher.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#23 Rogerdodger

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 11:41 PM

Posting anything on any social media opens one up to criticism.

Try being a weather forecaster! LOL

 

Many of us appreciate thoughtful comments such as your informative, explanations. 



#24 K Wave

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 01:58 PM

Apparently only thing needed to watch was the employment report. That was enough for a 700 point rally for DOW.

A news driven market can not be predicted with TA.

I literally repeatedly said a run to 33.6K on Dow was very possible, as that is where the upside TA target was. Dow close Friday 33630. Yeah, useless....

 

Thus far, this is very possibly a classic final upthrust before large decline type action.

 

Buuuuttt...that said, if market DOES NOT now roll back over hard with next few days, then something entirely different may be going on.

 

We are at one of those TA decision points...and how the market ACTS from here forward will be very important.

 

Homebuilder index, for example is interesting here:

 

The 2 hour was set to attempt rollover, but hourly held, and started to push up on Friday.

Now there is no currently visible fundamental reason for homebuilders to start fresh bull leg here.

But if they do indeed do so, then it would appear that Mr Market, which is way smarter than all of us, is sensing some sort of improvement in conditions coming.

 

So if homebuilders do not take out the obvious massive technical pivot at 60 very soon, I would consider that a warning to bears.

 

And if they do take it out...Katy bar the door, and get ready massive bear onslaught....

 

So in a nutshell..many things at make or break point here...

I have a ton of dry powder ready to short if this does turn out to be a final fakeout top before a big Q1 decline.

But if bears do not ACT appropriately over next few days, I will actually start to flip to long side, as the last thing I ever want to do is fight a new emerging trend.

 

XHB multi-timeframe technical look.

 

2 hour

2h.jpg

 

1 hour

 

1h.jpg

 

Daily

 

xhb.jpg

 

 

And here is Dow 4 hour....33.6k area is pretty much where bears have to get it done.

 

dji.jpg


Edited by K Wave, 07 January 2023 - 01:59 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#25 K Wave

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 02:16 PM

And REIT in a similar situation....

 

I was, and still am (at least for a couple more days anyway), expecting a big decline to start on breach of 2200 level.

 

However, Friday's action was strong enough to at least give some pause as to whether that will now happen.

And again, if it does not happen, then Mr. Market is very likely telling us something that is not readily apparent yet.

 

As I have discovered over the years, if a chart gets all setup to go one way, and then pulls a zig instead of the expected zag, usually means the original thesis is wrong, and can be very dangerous to not change course accordingly.

 

REIT 1 hr

 

r1.jpg

 

REIT Daily

 

rd.jpg


Edited by K Wave, 07 January 2023 - 02:16 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#26 12SPX

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 03:40 PM

Just my 2 cents but -

 

Here is what I respect

 - people who make clear unambiguous calls 

 - people who show their work, as much as is possible at least some reasoning that makes logical sense.

 

Here is what I don't respect:

 - people who attack directly or implied others calls, or work - what possible value does that have? if you know better, show it, prove it ! that is the best demonstration of your knowledge

 

I've seen it alot on this board and elsewhere, people get fed up with b.s.  ... it wont' effect me BTW LOL because I know my system is as good or better than anyone out there because i've been at this 23 years and

seen. heard, tried alot. ..experience is the only real teacher.

Totally agree with that as its easy to make comments with nothing backing you.  I like my system also which is basically reading the tape and option prices thus why I post live trades!! 



#27 K Wave

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 04:16 PM

Almost all big declines start with fakeouts to upside first, and less frequently, they simply go sideways and die.

 

So was why I was watching 32850 and 33600 so closely.

 

Now we see if Friday was indeed the fakeout before the down move. Back under 32850 now is what bears MUST do now, and relatively quickly.

 

Be interesting to see how market reacts to Gang of 20 essentially getting everything they asked for, which could impact big spending among other things.

https://www.zerohedg...ake-speakership

 

Kudos to those courageous fighters who were surrounded by swamp gators on all sides. If we can get a hundred more like them, might actually start to bring the country back from the edge.

Herculean task, but I have just a bit more faith than before.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#28 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 05:44 PM

Posting anything on any social media opens one up to criticism.

Try being a weather forecaster! LOL

 

Many of us appreciate thoughtful comments such as your informative, explanations. 

 

Thanks Roger ... yes and I am guilty of criticizing my weather forcasters ..last winter during a severe snow storm they we're telling us it was sunny :-)

In that case I felt my criticism was fair  .. but social media as you say, not so much, but then its fair to call that out.   


Edited by EntropyModel, 07 January 2023 - 05:49 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#29 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 06:28 PM

ST - really slow boring day LOL ..hence posting on other things...BUT I would say from experience

 - typically these setups end with a GAP and RUN ..i am looking for down here obviously...at least to 3670-3700 area.

..likely need a drop/gap under 3780 to trigger it.anything else is suspect of more 'range-a-thon'.

 

...

I tend to credit people with comprehension skills  - and I will say its more work to post about short term stuff so I'm leaning against it.

I will try to be clearer in future if I do post short term 'stuff' - it always seem to lead to 'issues' so i'll have a team of lawyers and linguists look over my post first :-)

 

Here's my Trading 101

 - U Either have a SIGNAL or a SETUP - ideally both , and they are different. ( the above is a CONDITIONAL SETUP - IF this, then that ) 

 - Signals can be anything, my Short Term model is based on 'physics/math' of markets - u could use 'news' or chickens feet but I dont' recommened it.

 - Setups are PRICE points - like 'a breakout'  ..

 - Ideally I want both - because that increases the odds of win to loss.

 

 - NO system wins 100%, it win/loss varies over time ...and conditions ... mine does WAY better than 50/50 in ALL ...but its still going to be wrong, so what? ..its about being more wins/losses over time, but actually

 more about position sizes, cutting losses etc and mental game. I realize most here are not traders but investors more - those of us who have done hundreds if not thousands of trade learn alot from that, that maybe isn't clear to investors though they would also benefit. Here is one post I made about this a few months back on my board - I can't link it so i'll copy and paste it, maybe this will help some here understand better.

 

==========================

FYI - Started teaching one of my sons how to trade as he asked - teaching others is often the best teacher for yourself - here's a few things I went over -

- enter a stop loss and profit exit order when u open the trade ..don't use 'mental stops' doesn't work

- that the longer the TImeframe of the trade - the less we tend to have discipline of ^this and just think 'i have time, i can 'manage it' - fatal last words! ..

- human mind is just BAD at trading especially because we accumulate fatigure/as kind of PTSD trading damage - we have to impose discpline or over time we are screwed and the mental cost of that adds up ...which is why I explained to him I do not day trade currently, not because I can't profitably but it just became too much mental effort/cost for me, especially as someone with stress triggered lupus! ..so whilst one 'can' do something, it's about doing something your relatively comfortable with over time.

- For day trading the key skill I learned - is the ability to 'relax' and just wait for the setup and not FORCE it (I did that for years) ... then SWITCH MODES in a minute to execute and manage the trade ...but as said, its a high mentally taxing skill.. probably better for young people...and it took me years to master the 'relax while waiting' - and not 'over trading'

- Day trading teaches u WAY MORe, and FASTER about real trading than any other timeframes, those that haven't rarely know really anything about actual trading u can't really learn it from investing or even swing/IT ..not enough data points - when I was doing hundreds of trades a year, that's when I learnt the most and things I could never learn any other way...(* so even if u want to do longer timeframe, it worth doing this for period with small positions just to learn these lessons).

 
 
https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43
Nov 20, 2022·edited Nov 20, 2022Author

- I believe the best too risk/reward timeframes are - day trade of 30min to hour or so during the day but not at opens or closes .... and Several weeks (IT) ...I believe the WORST is opens/closes, or holding overnight for just 1-2 days (swing)... these are the most targetted for 'bs' in my experience.

- Controversial but it's my observation first of myself earlier on, and most others - that people are often working out subconscious issues in the market rather than just trying to make $ ...I see this on trading boards and seems even worse....example the 'cult of personality/holy grail' in 99% lives on ..i.e. not understanding it s just about finding an edge, and ACCEPTINg LOSSES and not about trying to fnid 'holy grails' so u can avoid losses!...and is about personal issues of ignoring reason/how to make $ ..and be about 'being right/almost religion ' ..very interesting infact ..I saw this with subscriptions ..people pay for stuff that is of zero help to make $ ..and ignore stuff that would help them ....and equally

- Short term trading teaches more about the human mind/condition than literally anything else can ...and shows just why we are all so $#@%^&$&ed! ..are biological computers are mostly totally fooling us, and 99% are literally incapable of objectively, or logical reasoning ..though, their mind is telling them they are ... the human mind is delusional in 99% of cases.

* By Time u learn everything u need to be a consistent profitable trader - u are likely bored of trading and pretty burnt out of it and want to do other things.. true for me (short term - I can 'enjoy' now IT or longer timeframes because they different enough) ... which is WHY if a MENTOR can teach u the shorter route to learning this the better ...but few will listen, I know I didn't!

 


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#30 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 12:38 PM

OK - NOW i'm wrong on ST setup tongue.png

 

This was definitely the lower odds path -  mostly due to DOLLAR .. see chart and high correlation ..didn't expect dollar to drop again as I said.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc1ODkzMF8yMDc5Mzk3Ng

 

I don't think it changes the IT as said - as  I mentioned I believe were in a Range ...and 'complex corrective' currently, which is more difficult on the St.

I expect this to be some sort of 'c' of B type deal up here today, maybe tomorrow but expect it roll over shortly back down short of IT highs on SPx/comp (don't care about anything else..unless I state these are what i'm talking about) -

 

DISCLAIMERS  -

 Just my view FWIW - not a trade, not even a signal.. ...I cd be wrong, no holy grails best systems are still wrong ..no really its true ..nothing is 100% ...no animals or those identifying as humans or 'other' were harmed

in the forming of this message - my lawyers and linguistics team approve this disclaimer.rolleyes.gif


Edited by EntropyModel, 09 January 2023 - 12:46 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB