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we either have a wave 1 of a new bull market or more backing and filling


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#781 K Wave

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Posted 18 March 2023 - 02:56 PM

Short and sweet....Island Bottoms can be every bit as powerful as Island tops.

Using SLV, as it shows the gaps much better.

 

Step 1. Establish foothold over 900 day.

Step 2. 200 MA turns up.

Step 3. Clear 22.50 (24 on Silver)

Step 4. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

Step 1 by far the most important one here over coming days. Nothing happens without that.

Friday's close or thereabouts most likely bears last chance to stop things from turning up.

 

 

And 84.40 is the BIG Pivot on G/S now...But most likely, under 86 would mark the start of the turn.

So still a bit of work to do there.

But, if Silver does the other tasks, G/S will play along at some point to confirm....

 

 

 

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#782 jabat

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Posted 18 March 2023 - 03:17 PM

welcome back Kwave



#783 Smithy

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Posted 18 March 2023 - 08:47 PM

Ditto!



#784 Smithy

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Posted 18 March 2023 - 10:16 PM

It Takes a Long Pull to Get There - Porgy and Bess

 



#785 Russ

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 06:32 AM

Short and sweet....Island Bottoms can be every bit as powerful as Island tops.

Using SLV, as it shows the gaps much better.

 

Step 1. Establish foothold over 900 day.

Step 2. 200 MA turns up.

Step 3. Clear 22.50 (24 on Silver)

Step 4. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

Step 1 by far the most important one here over coming days. Nothing happens without that.

Friday's close or thereabouts most likely bears last chance to stop things from turning up.

 

 

And 84.40 is the BIG Pivot on G/S now...But most likely, under 86 would mark the start of the turn.

So still a bit of work to do there.

But, if Silver does the other tasks, G/S will play along at some point to confirm....

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for showing your work on all that which inspired me to look at the gold/silver ratio chart and the trend is quite obvious for it to form a major low in early 2025, I have marked the chart with previous highs and lows for the gsr chart compared to the gold chart shown by a gold colored line.  The two charts don't always sync perfectly but in general are strongly corelated. The monthly MACD has turned bearish.    


Edited by Russ, 19 March 2023 - 06:40 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#786 Russ

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 07:18 AM

Martin Armstrong:

 

2020-Institutional_The_Bond_Bubble_Repor

In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. This is the first paragraph from our 2020 Institutional Bond Bubble Report. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.

Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.

I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honesty, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.

As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.

We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance to destroy Russia and China and they are NOT backing down. Our children are just their play-things to achieve their dream of decades.

God help humanity!     https://www.armstron...-to-everything/


Edited by Russ, 19 March 2023 - 07:20 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#787 Russ

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 08:46 AM

Gold high for Jan 2024 which is close to Armstrong's next 8.6 year pi cycle date of 2024.35 and he says he expects commodities and inflation to keep going up into 2024. The GSR chart above is contradicting the gold chart by one year, I would place more weight on the gold chart. 

 

 

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Edited by Russ, 19 March 2023 - 08:49 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#788 jabat

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:33 AM

Eric Hadik

https://www.howestre...-week-in-money/



#789 K Wave

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:12 AM

Gold high for Jan 2024 which is close to Armstrong's next 8.6 year pi cycle date of 2024.35 and he says he expects commodities and inflation to keep going up into 2024. The GSR chart above is contradicting the gold chart by one year, I would place more weight on the gold chart. 

 

 

 

It looks like Gold has broken out.

 

But I expect Silver to OUTPERFORM percentagewise going forward...BY AL LOT.

 

It already did this week, even though Silver itself has not broken above $24 yet.

 

I am about maximizing my gains in a big LT move, and if this breakout is the real deal, Silver is the best game in town.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#790 K Wave

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:57 AM

Thanks for that update.

 

I had been looking at this as a possibility for NDX with the recent AAPL MSFT strength, and Hadik seems to be thinking along the same lines.

Bottom line, as long as Apple holds above 153, not shorting Naz.

 

Also his looking for a potentially explosive run into May high in Metals could mark the initial breakout wave top.

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy