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Nexus of trouble brewing here


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#1 EntropyModel

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 05:36 PM

I see alot of signs in model that the bullish fun is nearly over here, best guess

 - we churn around current level for few more sessions on comp/spx 

 - then turn back down for swing

 

What I can see in my data is another massive shift out of shorting and back to BTFD mode, was really extreme this afternoon on the Q's in particular.

This is NOT an exact timing tool, but, it is definitely trouble brewing.

 

Add to this, the Dollar strongly appears to me now to be completing 5 wave move ..very clear on EURO, and sterling as well.

 

Most of this bounce on Dow/Spx is due to Dollar drop - not institutional buying which is pretty non existent, and now retail piling back in and getting fairly euphoric relative

 to price action, given comp is close to bear market lows and is possibly in a right shoulder of H&S pattern off Oct lows it just retested - i've rarely seen such a disconnect

 of retail bullishness compared to reality from my viewpoint at least.

 

LQ is supportive still but I expect to also wane and roll over again, and this time, we have setup for a major drop in LQ..for first time since October 2022.

 

That's a troublesome nexus - but I also see BKX as very important signals here ...it is giving me big warnings and  I favor it will turn down hard soon.

 

Btm line 

 - we still have fuel for some more upside attempts on major indexes - maybe 2-5 more sessions attempting to move higher but

 - I am looking for those attempt to fail, like today, as confirmation AND

 - key data I look at continue to confirm this massive shift in shorting to BTFD extreme

- ideally dollar making a multi week low in this period 99-101 area as I went over elsewhere.

 

Now - I also said, I don't believe even if this plays out - that this bounce is done YET ...I only expect a pullback, of swing type ..then likely another attempt to move higher ..producing

another month or so of 'range' etc ... but this part is 'prediction' and must be adjusted to real time data.


Edited by EntropyModel, 17 January 2023 - 05:38 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#2 EntropyModel

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:02 PM

FYI - sorry I can't seem to find way to directly post charts ..but here is a link, showing the insanely strong 'dollar to stocks' correlation -

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5MDI1MV8yMDgzNzk0MQ

 

and Euro shows clearest, that this bounce i Euro/Sterling and drop in dollar looks near complete.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5MDI1OV8yMDgzNzk0OQ

 

I've gone over previously at length the USD setup, supports etc - It is due a IT bounce in this around 99-101 currently and fits this price setup.

 

I was just looking over CRB/oil and I see there same, and due a bounce as well.

 

so my read here is - and I need to go over this in my 2023 'predictions' - that we are going to get a 1-2 month 'mini reflation' here with commodities bouncing, with dollar ...bonds i still

need to go over but I expect an attempt to retest the highs in this period - but this will vey high odds be the final bounces in CRB, and sell off in bonds before a cyclical reversal into recession,

but in context of Secular low of 40 years being put in, I will go over this all in charts soon - I did call this way back last year and I'll try to find that as saves repeating it all.


Edited by EntropyModel, 17 January 2023 - 07:04 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 09:23 PM

 

I can't seem to find way to directly post charts

I hate that.

 

 I have to save a screenshot copy to paintbrush and then upload to https://postimages.org/ then put it in the "image" icon above.

It "only" takes,,,  10  minutes...swoon.gif

Thanks for the update. Here are your charts.

One-Dollar.jpg

 

euro.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 January 2023 - 10:49 PM.


#4 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:00 AM

Yep Thx Roger, appreciated!  ..yeah I use various apps that are fast simple literally 10 seconds for me to snap chart , get link  ..10min! yikes .painful :-)

 

In the above, I forget add BOJ major QE issues ... looks like Japan will follow the UK into 'default' effectively...domino's are starting to fall on CB financial alchemy experiment era.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#5 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:44 AM

.....

Btm line 

 - we still have fuel for some more upside attempts on major indexes - maybe 2-5 more sessions attempting to move higher but

 - I am looking for those attempt to fail, like today, as confirmation AND

 - key data I look at continue to confirm this massive shift in shorting to BTFD extreme

- ideally dollar making a multi week low in this period 99-101 area as I went over elsewhere.

...

 

Yep another upside attempt this AM rejected, stronger this time same as yesteday.

My key data is confirming ..really extreme shift as I saw in intraday data confirmed by EOD data.

Sterling-dollar-Euro all moved into that turn zone (hence stocks move up at open) but also reversing ..this is one fly in setup, but we are 'in the zone' now for that IT trend turn in currencies.

LQ actually spiked up at open but looks as I said ready to wane here.

 

As I mentioned here -  3940 is the key level to trigger high odds reversal down on SPXcash .

 

 

 

 

https://www.traders-...-market-update/


Edited by EntropyModel, 18 January 2023 - 11:45 AM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:57 AM

10min! yikes .painful

 

2 minutes looking for my glasses, 3 minutes getting more coffee, 5 minutes trying to remember what I was just doing...

 

Inverse bear stuff is looking good (today) up 1% & 2%

Mentioned by IYB:

 

Tracking Account: 28% UVIX, 10% SPXU, 21% TZA, 11% SQQQ, 29% Cash Stop UVIX 5.48, TZA 29.88, SPXU 15.78, SQQQ 31.77

 

Other bear stuff mentioned by Joanne Klein at Stockcharts:

Above the Green Line -Jan 18, 2023 Buy High, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing

Money Wave Buy Signal on Tuesday for TBF & TBT. Soon for PSQ TSLQ & SARK. Please Wait for the Money Wave to Close up above 20.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 January 2023 - 12:32 PM.


#7 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:36 PM

 

10min! yikes .painful

 

2 minutes looking for my glasses, 3 minutes getting more coffee, 5 minutes trying to remember what I was just doing...

 

 

 

I hear ya! :-)


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#8 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:37 PM

It's VERY clear this AM to me, as I mentioned elsewhere

 - COMP is NOT related to Dollar moves - so shows a clearer pattern of where we stand 'removing dollar effect'

 -SPX is the MOST related to Dollar - and so, if/when dollar turn will be the most hit.

 

now, from the Comp - we can see rampant bullishness is out of context and being ignored for some reason as if Dow is the most important index.

 -  comp just failed a 3month rally attempt by retesting it lows

 -  and as said appears to be a large H&S pattern, now in right shoulder


Edited by EntropyModel, 18 January 2023 - 12:40 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#9 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 04:04 PM

Yep - 3940 broken into the close.

 

The next important step on my setup is tomorrow into fri - does 3910-3920 area hold for a bounce and 'backsweep' as I call it OR

 do we gap down and run through that area, if that happens i see a massive fast drop C down - until I see, I don't have a target as I mentioned,

I think it will depend on the dollar as i've gone over ad nauseum. - if dollar bounces strong overnight I see the later.

* I shd say we definitely have setup for it .potential i ..ii..now iii down ..so tomorrw will be 'informative'.

 

But today was big confirmation of the setup I went over.


Edited by EntropyModel, 18 January 2023 - 04:16 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#10 beta

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 04:22 PM

Good call.

 

Bearish engulfing on QQQ, AAPL daily charts.


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