36 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Thx Beta.

 

I preface this chart with 'there are no holy grails'  - and I prefer the model...but If I had to pick one...this ain't bad for ST moves

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5NTI1NF8yMDg0NDYxOQ

Edited by EntropyModel, 18 January 2023 - 06:13 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I mentioned the rapid switch from 'too many shorts' to 'too many longs' (extreme BTFD) ..here is a signal that shows this - note. it has ways to go back down hence

going to be hard to market to ascend without a longer 'pullback' here.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5NTI3NV8yMDg0NDY0MA

 

Psst - Bulls look away, you don't want to look at this signal it is FUGLY and I can show alot more that have so far, never failed to call a bear market low.

Note - signal is always 'outside inside'

We had TWO chances for bear lows on this signal and current one is looking doomed ..this is part why I expect a longer range here to get this triggered for sell.

The way signal is behaving is very bearish ...but i'll go over on video when I do my 2023 forecast along with even worse signal on senitment.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5NTI5MV8yMDg0NDY4Nw

Edited by EntropyModel, 18 January 2023 - 06:43 PM.

[EntropyModel]

EOD Data

 

Odds heavily favor more downside attempt next couple sessions -  it's key to see the price patterns/data during this period.

Looks to me like a 3-5 day swing down at minimum.

[Rogerdodger]

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5NTI5MV8yMDg0NDY4Nw

 

That downtrend line makes 4000 look very important...or done.

[EntropyModel]

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5NTI5MV8yMDg0NDY4Nw

 

That downtrend line makes 4000 look very important...or done.

 

Yeah - or well .. the ALGo's would like us to think so ...I still suspect we will get one move that jumps above that trendline before we

are reading to take out the bear market lows ..but could be a month or two and lower prices as it descends from pattern i've been following.

[EntropyModel]

SO we got that gap down ..as I said ..potential i.ii. now iii ...on Spx 3880* min ...if takes that out its extending and that wd be trouble..

and sentiment signals support 'trouble' here as said.

Edited by EntropyModel, 19 January 2023 - 10:51 AM.

[EntropyModel]

As I say, I don't like to predict for trading ...but I don't see 3880 holding here, too much BTFD ...this signal picks this up ..

* spikes above blue line is excessive BTFD, spikes below blue line is excessive STFB

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc5OTYwNF8yMDg1MDI3MQ

 

Lq is also now dropping as I suggested ... Dollar is in decision zone but if that spikes up here then spx will hammer through 3880.

 

So I see a drop toward 3800 is more likely here.

 

* I wd say any HOURLY CLOSE below 3875 ..and I strongly favor a move toward 3780 area.

Edited by EntropyModel, 19 January 2023 - 11:38 AM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - Just to be clear

 - ^this setup as I said is just a ST setup to swing 

 -  it says nothing about longer term ...but, my view reamins, and everything i'm seeing on the model data confirms - We are in a LONG TERM RANGE here (Post IT bounce in OcT) and

I suspect (prediction) it will last 1-2 months from here until most give up calling dramatic up or down moves.(as I said somewhere recently).

Edited by EntropyModel, 19 January 2023 - 11:52 AM.

[steadyquest]

My simple and thoroughly unproven market condition indicator

 

[EntropyModel]

Interesting thx for chart steadyquest.

 

HELD that 3880 level and bouncing here ..mainly again due to dollar dropping.

 

We shall see, I suspect this bounce fails into at least a retest of 3875-3880 key support.