27 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

ALso  - I said I would give more indication of my own longer term positions here to help clarify my read - I did go over this in last video. I've been LONG investments since Oct low - and I said haven't seen what I need to YET but looking to move to CASH before next big downleg. OK - so what specifically do I need to still see

- The sentiment 'flip' - getting close as i've gone over

- Technicals weaken ...I believe this will happen next week or two.

- A PRICE REVERSAL ( with Model IT sell)

RISK would be if we just collapsed - but the setup assessment of RISK here is I believe any fast drop will get a retracement bounce - and high odds, we sitll have support here for few more weeks so a big down move without a retracement is low odds.

So, for now, Risk/reward for my investment timeframe remains LONG or more 'do nothing' until I see the above - for investments I will not try to 'time' the exact bounce high ..instead as I went over

in October on video - simply assess risk and get out to cash wherever/whenever I believe the RISK equation to change to risk of next major leg down.

Edited by EntropyModel, 31 January 2023 - 04:01 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Who cares about long term investments I hear you say ( well, I hear a few other short term traders who message me say LOL) ...

 

I guess we can break it down as follows, or I will try going forward.

 

Long term investments  - i.e. a position or portfolio you intend to hold years if not many years ( I have 10 year time horizon on these investments from here, they have  roughly 15 years on them long so far).

Really for me here trying to align with the overally 'bull or bear' trend.

 

Next i'll call 'Position trades/ or Intermediate trade/investment' -  time horizon of multi week to months - i've also gone over this for myself. I see us in IT up move into a RANGE since late Nov - and inside a BEAR Cycle trend.

 - As said, I  see as Range now ...so neutral ish - and not a good time frame RISK/REWARD wise to take new positions here if you missed the up move from Oct low.

 

I avoid SWING trading like the plague - so not going to cover that. 

 

So then we get into short term - few hours - I have indicated in the past, its more work - i'm thinking about giving trades for this .. entry/stop/exit etc but its ALOT more work then i get lazy...'well see' , I have alot going 

on so less time for this since xmas - but if time allows and I see good risk/reward I'll start to add these. 

Edited by EntropyModel, 31 January 2023 - 04:21 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Yikes - the Market clearly terrified of the FED 

 - 30 pt spike up on SPX into the close pre-FED

 - put/call 0.8X all day and for last 4 days

[EntropyModel]

This board is almost universally bullish right now, maybe they are right ...but sentiment is definitely NOT 'bearish' as all data is showing.

[EntropyModel]

ALSO - I haven't gone over this YET - but key part of model is Volatility - It is beginning to show a vERY DANGEROUS SIGNATURE - it is not there yet ..but 

need to keep a very close eye what PRICE does whenever say VIX gets to 17-18 area - if it keeps selling off, its very bearish.

 

* also to complete the 'sentiment' pictur e- I track the output of what I call 'the matrix' i.e. MSM, internet key sites ...and its also very bullish right now .

Edited by EntropyModel, 01 February 2023 - 02:18 PM.

[EntropyModel]

HEADS UP - if the data i'm seeing is correct, and no reason to believe its not - this Looks more and more like approaching a RETAIL BLOW OFF moment here ..rapid shift to bullishness/covering shorts ahead of the FED here ... I think this will put in the PEAK RETAIL LONG postion ( least shorts, least cash into longs since top in early 2022 REALTIVE to PRICE )  for this bounce before or after the FED ... prices can grind higher still ...but this looks for whatever reason the moment of the 'big flip' as I call it based on data. The Polls may not pick this up - as i've gone over. This supports prices for now  but longer term is a very bearish development as i've gone over - I cd be wrong, just

my view FWIW

 

This breathless spike up here looks like it tape wise to me.

Edited by EntropyModel, 01 February 2023 - 02:54 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

The last 30 minute SPX candle yesterday looked like somebody got the memo early.

[EntropyModel]

The last 30 minute SPX candle yesterday looked like somebody got the memo early.

 

Practice run  - ALGO's like to control retail sentiment with 'fast exciting moves', into closes, but around the FED is the favourite...

and we are right at 'let them eat cake' zone with lots of stops at top of range to trigger and force shorts out as I mentioned and

 provide bullish Nirvana setup.

 

The 'real' move usually come boringly a day or two after the Lord Mayors show.

I cd be wrong - should be able to tell by friday if as I expect the 'dung cart' turns up to take us back down from this fireworks display.

 

(meaning of 'after the lord Mayors show' - Originally and chiefly British English, the phrase after the Lord Mayor's Show (comes the, or a, dung-cart, or muck-cart, etc. ¹) designates an anticlimactic or disappointing end following an otherwise exciting, impressive or entertaining display)

Edited by EntropyModel, 01 February 2023 - 03:12 PM.

[EntropyModel]

That's a dangerous looking pullback to breakout zone on SPX at close there - 

 - If we don't follow through to upside tomorrow, I am very confident as i've gone over ..of  as i've said, that breakout attempts will be sold, if

I'm going to be wrong - it comes tomorrow into friday but everything I look at including the now EUPHORIC bulls at I predicted here is confirming my longer term view.

Edited by EntropyModel, 01 February 2023 - 05:15 PM.

[Waver]

Certainty looks like that was bottoming action and now breaking out to new all time highs.

Edited by Waver, 02 February 2023 - 10:51 AM.