60 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

2000 to 2002 was quite a breather that took about  20yrs for qqq to recover 

87 was quite a breather and the mensa ewaver gave the dow a 10% chance of ever seeing 2600 agains....u a  mensa to??   2000 to 2002 ...2007 to 2009         ......20/20 hindsite tells u what????.......foresite is more important ....right??   watch the sky

Edited by da_cheif, 04 February 2023 - 09:56 PM.

[skott]

You are confusing someone else's predictive error with my historical fact. Why are you thusly confused?

You have been saying always stay long, that corrections are just breathers. It can be costly to be a bogglehead zombie.  I think we'll know this week whether the market will go up or crash. I dont claim to know the answer but i know what ill be watching. I almost dont care

[12SPX]

As I told the brokers in my brokerage 3 days before the 1987 market crash it is stupid to hold stocks when you know there are way more odds of a huge correction which applies today.  It was stupid to hold stocks at the end of 2020 when you knew the market was going to fall and stupid to hold at the start of 2022.  The 1999 top took 15 years to get back to new highs and that is the scenario I believe we are in now so buy and hold doesn't make money.  Sure were rallying and could go higher but there is no way we are going to make new highs anytime soon no matter what happens as this everything bubble is slowly leaking as it descends!! Once in a while the fire will hold it up and maybe even bring the balloon up a little but eventually it will run out of gas and fall to a final bottom so watching the sky works for a while but sometimes you need to look down to prepare to hit the ground!!! 

[OEXCHAOS]

on a big down day like this the VIX is down and at 18.50  This is incredible complacency or it has something to do with the new valuation they do each week instead of each month. something is going on here and I don't know what it is.

For what it's worth, the VIX sure seems like a "smart money" indicator. Remember, we've got VIX options and futures. This is dominated by big money, sophisticated program investors. Not a bunch of amateurs trading the SPX options. I've been trading the trend of the VIX now for a while to good effect.

 

Mark

[da_cheif]

aug a

As I told the brokers in my brokerage 3 days before the 1987 market crash it is stupid to hold stocks when you know there are way more odds of a huge correction which applies today.  It was stupid to hold stocks at the end of 2020 when you knew the market was going to fall and stupid to hold at the start of 2022.  The 1999 top took 15 years to get back to new highs and that is the scenario I believe we are in now so buy and hold doesn't make money.  Sure were rallying and could go higher but there is no way we are going to make new highs anytime soon no matter what happens as this everything bubble is slowly leaking as it descends!! Once in a while the fire will hold it up and maybe even bring the balloon up a little but eventually it will run out of gas and fall to a final bottom so watching the sky works for a while but sometimes you need to look down to prepare to hit the ground!!! 

3 days before the crash ....and what date was that??
calling for the crash on aug 26 and not 3 days before the buy of the century seems to be what it was all about

Edited by da_cheif, 05 February 2023 - 05:05 PM.

[pdx5]

Life is short. Buy and hold is great strategy for those who expect to live for 100 more years.

Rest of us should try to catch uptrends and downtrends. 2022 was horrible year for buy and hold. 

SPX down double digits percentage in year 2022.

 

I was chatting with my neighbor today. He is buy and hold. His portfolio is down big in 2022. He will eventually break even and get ahead.

But he is already 74 years old. I hope his dreams come true before he kicks the bucket.

 

Me on the other hand trade with common sense. My portfolio was at all time high by a good margin on Thursdays close.

Edited by pdx5, 05 February 2023 - 11:46 PM.

[skott]

 

on a big down day like this the VIX is down and at 18.50  This is incredible complacency or it has something to do with the new valuation they do each week instead of each month. something is going on here and I don't know what it is.

For what it's worth, the VIX sure seems like a "smart money" indicator. Remember, we've got VIX options and futures. This is dominated by big money, sophisticated program investors. Not a bunch of amateurs trading the SPX options. I've been trading the trend of the VIX now for a while to good effect.

 

Mark

 

 

 

I hear you Mark but the VIX was 16.56 the day of the top last year 1/3/22  I think it hit a low of 16.34 that day. We hit a low of 17.06 last week in the VIX. 

I wish I could find the chart of Smart Money/Dumb money. It's screaming sell.

[skott]

[skott]

Gold miners and oil shares are good leaders to watch. They often top early in bear markets. Seems like if all were rosy more oil would be sold oil shares would go up. I wonder why insiders have been selling so heavily and not buying their shares with the price of oil "so low" ?? food thought

[skott]

Things are quite "interesting" here. The gold miners have had a nice run and are pulling back into buy signals and GDXJ would probably be just above the 200 day MA. As I said, an indicator sometimes for the market in general. This buy signal COULD pretty bullish but if it fails it's not going to be good for anything. Bull Markets usually end on good news, M&A activity, etc. Well we have good news on the jobs report, META did a speculative move up on good news , and Newmont Mining just announced a buyout of NEWCREST. Mining co's are notorious for buyouts at tops. This could be another. Deflation coming? Debt collapse? How long can the Fed Govt pay 5% on the massinve, insane criminal debt loads they have put on us? But what does the Fed want to save more than anything? It's monopoly money, so higher rates. Powell told us so. They want to crash everything and use it as an excuse for more control.

Edited by skott, 06 February 2023 - 11:14 AM.