30 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

OK thx for heads up cheif.

 

FYI - warning - wave count shown below, please protect small children and those easily disturbed from the link

Roughly where I see the count - it's a road map - not a trading signal ! ..It just helps me see if we are following a high odds path or not...it is NOT predictive etc etc bla bla ..if a

meteor hits tomorrow nothing including waves will see it coming...the future is a probability not 100% predictable,  but it does narrow down the future from infinity to a few likely paths. :-)

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzg2ODM2OV8yMDk0ODgyMg

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 04:46 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Extreme Greed at CNN: https://www.cnn.com/.../fear-and-greed

[EntropyModel]

Extreme Greed at CNN: https://www.cnn.com/.../fear-and-greed

 

Thx Roger - yes that is an example bit of data i'd put under my 'other' category.

 

I do notice, and its interesting and perhaps a sentiment tell itself - that in 2022, trading sites pointed to extreme bearishness, but not extreme bullishness which did occur at tops,

so far same pattern in 2023 - that kind of asymmetry suggests strongly to me 'entrenched bullishness' , and believe the extreme shift seen since last week is the same. Just my 2cents

as someone who watches sentiment as closely as anyone for 20years.

 

NONE of ^this is a precise timing tool - but I do believe it will matter 'eventually' - that's the hard part. :-)

[EntropyModel]

Not sentiment - but this is as mentioned another 'bit of data' on internals - 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzg2ODU2N18yMDk0OTE0Mw

[pdx5]

Yeah to be clear - I am not a 'bear' (actually long whole rally) or 'a Bull' -  I am only look at objective data- that data is very clear here as I said.
My views have nothing to do with anyone elses, just reporting what my data is.
The signals/data have a good track record, but no one can predict the future etc etc insert usual disclaimers :-)

I am in sell the rallies mode for now.

[EntropyModel]

That is FOUR hourly REVERSALS in  as many hours - first up, then down, then up into close, now down again ... ALGO's are having a play date LOL!

^This is very unusual and is 'suspect'- as Short term signals were positive ...but sentiment data continuous to go into Bull-euphoric-ville.

It will be interesting to see if polls catchup to it, didn't happen in 2022.

[EntropyModel]

Make that VERY suspect  (tape painting yesterday by ALGO's that is ).

 

Near term Key pivot MUST hold - 4085/4090 ..then 4075 ...below that my price model put very high odds we into down swing i'm looking for ...until then, to repeat myself, we can attempt

upside but expect it to be sold in 4200 area ..so far, that has been the play.

 

Today was interesting on tape - looks strongly to me, we are reached BTFD exhaustion - I didn't see much selling, just falling under own weight of the one sided tape...but also

no selling ALGO's  YET.

 

Sentiment continuous to go 'ballistically euphoric' .. for no obvious reason I can see...and I see alot, seem more 'slope of hope' than 'wall of worry' to me, just my 2cents.

 

In 'theory' this is wave 4 of C last 3 days ..bit more down then 5 of C up ...but you can't trust waves at turns, or when sentiment is extreme, or several days of the week LOL ..it possible

that plays out but any drop under 4075 and its off the *table, and it ALGO special time. 

Edited by EntropyModel, 08 February 2023 - 04:43 PM.

[blustar]

We agree 4200 area to be challenged late today (outside shot at early Friday). Then it's "Katy Bar the Door!"

[EntropyModel]

We agree 4200 area to be challenged late today (outside shot at early Friday). Then it's "Katy Bar the Door!"

 

It's possible - but the indexes are now out of synch wave wise - so I could see a truncation on the 5th here as well ....or irregular type top.

 

But yes - I think odds are increasing of rejection of 4200 area and bigger drop ..as said, below 4075/4080 is the trigger pivot for that on my model.

[EntropyModel]

Looks ready to breakdown to me here ..it looks like a slow grind down to key pivot 4080-4090 ...we could see a few more bounce attempts but

I don't see it getting back to 4200 now ....I think more likely we break under the pivot and run fast down ..some target zones 4040, 4000 and 3950.