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If we gap down tomorrow - market is toast...especially if ..


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#11 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 11:54 AM

Yep - limit bounce so far - Chopiing around it is

 
 
https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

THAT is will help of VST model buy(cycle up) here - LQ up, USD support

..but internal suck again.

Oh and No Shorts - that is the most noticable issue here to me.

 


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#12 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:15 PM

I am seeing BTFD at literally every predictable retail BTFD point - then it gets sold ... not bullish ! ..but algos so far not dropped the hammer

 

Best bulls are going to get in my view is a longer RANGE - if 3930-3960 area holds here ...

If 3930 fails - we accelerate down.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#13 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:55 PM

Um, Hammer officially dropped on BKX - as I said its leading ...that is some lead today!

 

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Edited by EntropyModel, 09 March 2023 - 01:58 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#14 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 02:39 PM

Like i said if you read this thread comments - we didn't have good setup for swing up here ..so its failed.

 

We still have ONE last chance IF 3920-3940 area HOLDS here as said -  really must hold the CLOSE.

 

But even there, as said, I see upside bounce is very limited - and the downside is fairly UN-limited so risk/reward math is not good.

* note. chart of BKX - gap and run down ...when the ALGO's are ready, that is what will happen so suicidal to take positons before the close, and

if its NOT ready, they usually gap it UP and force u to chase! ...this is our market tape for years ...thus I will not take swing type trades without good risk/reward

 

 

Just  my 3 cents ( inflationary adjustment )


Edited by EntropyModel, 09 March 2023 - 02:44 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#15 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 04:01 PM

Looks bad - but I don't like to predict and instead let price model confirm

 - We now broken the hourly support I gave, and daily swing support@3930 close -

 

BUT I still have key IT WEEKLY CLOSE  support 3900 (* correction 3900 ideal but 3930 or lower)...need that to fail to confirm 'ready to rumble' down on IT.

 

Until that, still chances for bounce (though poor upside risk/reward as said) - tomorrow will be important as fri weekly candle close.

 

Really the key is as much is possible 'just look at the math/data' and not let how/what market does effect judgement via emotion - easier said than done!

especially day like today.

 

basically - This 3900 area if 'last chance saloon' for bullish IT and trend case 


Edited by EntropyModel, 09 March 2023 - 04:09 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#16 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 06:03 PM

Been looking over just pure price model

 - we have ton of Swing support right here this 3900-3920 zone

 - but we also now have a lower swing low - and IT strong price magnet to 3750 area

 

Here is my take FWIW 

 - I see very high odds we are headed now to 3750 

 - IF we are going to get a bounce first - It comes here ...really we have to put in some sort of ST reversal tomorrow ...but as said I think any upside continous to be limited - and I think if

that bounce occurs, its the final one before drop to 3750 area.

 

Now, I will say ahead that i3750 is MASSIVE support zone - and i'd be surprised if we don't swing up there ...but one step at time.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#17 beta

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 06:43 PM


Here is my take FWIW 

 - I see very high odds we are headed now to 3750 

 - IF we are going to get a bounce first - It comes here ...really we have to put in some sort of ST reversal tomorrow ...but as said I think any upside continous to be limited - and I think if

that bounce occurs, its the final one before drop to 3750 area.

 

Now, I will say ahead that i3750 is MASSIVE support zone - and i'd be surprised if we don't swing up there ...but one step at time.

Agree that 3750 is the next target zone.   However, I do not think the bounce exceeds 3920.  And eventually, 3750 support will fail and give way to lower prices i.e., 3400-3500.


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#18 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 09:16 PM

 


Here is my take FWIW 

 - I see very high odds we are headed now to 3750 

 - IF we are going to get a bounce first - It comes here ...really we have to put in some sort of ST reversal tomorrow ...but as said I think any upside continous to be limited - and I think if

that bounce occurs, its the final one before drop to 3750 area.

 

Now, I will say ahead that i3750 is MASSIVE support zone - and i'd be surprised if we don't swing up there ...but one step at time.

Agree that 3750 is the next target zone.   However, I do not think the bounce exceeds 3920.  And eventually, 3750 support will fail and give way to lower prices i.e., 3400-3500.

 

 

Agree Beta -  lets say 3750-3780  -  swing up 'bulls last slope of hope' area ....once that goes we head back to the lows ...but i'm still thinking not until April + timewise.

 

short term I don't like to predict just go over my System - right now,  I see almost no chance of a bounce without bit more time/price bottoming tomorrow AM ...I don't have any ST buy signals here - HOWEVER

 .there is high odds support here so if we don't crack in the AM ..and hold 3900 ... I favor a bounce ... to where? dunno' ...u cd be right 3920-3930 is resistance now ...but ALGO love to backsweep through and then

reverse again ...as we just saw.....tomorrow shd be 'interesting' that is for sure :-)


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#19 beta

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 09:34 PM

FWIW, I believe we are embarking on a "3" wave of some order, as evidenced by the price acceleration and $VIX. 

 

If so, 3750 should be reached before end of March.  Then bounce to 3900, and a 5th wave down.

 

Stan Harley and some other cycle TA guys have been projecting mid-April low. 


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#20 EntropyModel

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 10:41 PM

FWIW, I believe we are embarking on a "3" wave of some order, as evidenced by the price acceleration and $VIX. 

 

If so, 3750 should be reached before end of March.  Then bounce to 3900, and a 5th wave down.

 

Stan Harley and some other cycle TA guys have been projecting mid-April low. 

 

I try not to predict out too far, but I will say I have a very scary signal setting up here - its only fired 3 times since 2007 and all 3 led to massive waterfalls ..but ..its not quite triggered, it wd need us to keep declining now through all supports

with no bounces to trigger it . Here's comment and chart from my blog - so TOMORROW will be VERY important not just on short term read, 3900 weekly close ..but also see if market is acting 'normally' or showing signs

 of a systemic LQ problem which caused all 3 prior ... things are getting very interesting!

"

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43
 

OH MY!

So I mentioned the Volatlity signal - with today spike up ..we now have the setup - its eXTRMELY RARE but its triggered before all the major waterfall/crashes last 15 years ..I don't have time right now to do detailed chart - but here is a model signal that shows u ...

- note first it gives a BUY - but then it FLIPS to sell (the red dashes) - that is sign of major trouble, today moves in Banking could be added as sign ...

- IF we now don't hold any supports/trade 'normally' then we have entered a HIGH RISK WATERFALL/SYSTEMIC CRASH signal.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzk4NTYyNl8yMTExMjQwMw

"

 

 


Edited by EntropyModel, 09 March 2023 - 10:43 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB