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Stealth Bull Market - Soft Ags


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#1 linrom1

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 10:37 AM

YTD soft commodities are matching ES performance. This is not supposed to be happening. Commodities are one of the worst performing asset group  going into recession. There might be something going on here?



#2 pdx5

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 12:02 PM

Yes, next election is coming close and the powers in charge will step on the gas to print more money.

The incumbent's do not want a recession before election.


Edited by pdx5, 24 April 2023 - 12:03 PM.

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#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 12:47 PM

The incumbent's do not want a recession before election.

 

If memory serves me, it seems to me like it depends on who is likely to win...

 

One could have a major banking crisis or a new rare disease just in time.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 April 2023 - 12:56 PM.


#4 pdx5

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 01:41 PM

 

The incumbent's do not want a recession before election.

 

If memory serves me, it seems to me like it depends on who is likely to win...

 

One could have a major banking crisis or a new rare disease just in time.

 

If incumbent's  poll numbers do not improve, get ready for a new lab created virus to arrive just in time. Actually AI is at it as we speak, to be prepared. Then all ballots must be mailed, and you will get a ballot whether you want to vote or not. All illegals will get a ballot as well. Can't suppress votes from anyone.  We definitely not a banana republic. We are just a banana now. 


Edited by pdx5, 24 April 2023 - 01:44 PM.

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#5 fib_1618

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 02:47 PM

Speaking of AI, here's an example of what would happen if the bot was asked to destroy humanity...a "Skynet" type event.

 

25 minutes of what should scare the living crap out of each and every one of you!

 

Fib

 


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#6 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 04:26 PM

Speaking of AI, here's an example of what would happen if the bot was asked to destroy humanity...a "Skynet" type event.

 

25 minutes of what should scare the living crap out of each and every one of you!

 

Fib

 

 

Humans are far more frightening Fib...this is just 'drama' stuff, an 'emulation'  - it's not an autonomous sentient AI as Skynet was supposed to be ...not to say that isn't coming because it IS, and THAT is what must be stopped,

 but ChatGPT is  barely definable as AI as I went  over in interview, is definetly not autonomous or sentient.

 

This is more FEAR PORN - DISTACTION ...to distract from the REAL DANGERS which I went over  of CURRENt AI's which are being for/soon -

   - the use by humans for mass surviellance down to individual monitoring of all of our online activitity/phones

 - profiling

 - predictive programming - to determine 'who might be a future problem' based on profiling

 - possible 'framing for crimes' by creating undetectably 'false' information about a person.

https://rumble.com/v...k-davidson.html


Edited by EntropyModel, 24 April 2023 - 04:27 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#7 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 04:58 PM

 

 

The incumbent's do not want a recession before election.

 

If memory serves me, it seems to me like it depends on who is likely to win...

 

One could have a major banking crisis or a new rare disease just in time.

 

If incumbent's  poll numbers do not improve, get ready for a new lab created virus to arrive just in time. Actually AI is at it as we speak, to be prepared. Then all ballots must be mailed, and you will get a ballot whether you want to vote or not. All illegals will get a ballot as well. Can't suppress votes from anyone.  We definitely not a banana republic. We are just a banana now. 

 

 

yes.gif

 

..such cynicism LOL ...ah the 'illusion' of democracy ...of course it's doesn't matter they are only the  'puppet Govt' ...the REAL govt never actually changes and is The Global Men Behind The Curtain.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#8 fib_1618

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 06:22 PM

 

Speaking of AI, here's an example of what would happen if the bot was asked to destroy humanity...a "Skynet" type event.

 

25 minutes of what should scare the living crap out of each and every one of you!

 

Fib

 

 

Humans are far more frightening Fib...this is just 'drama' stuff, an 'emulation'  - it's not an autonomous sentient AI as Skynet was supposed to be ...not to say that isn't coming because it IS, and THAT is what must be stopped,

 but ChatGPT is  barely definable as AI as I went  over in interview, is definetly not autonomous or sentient.

 

This is more FEAR PORN - DISTACTION ...to distract from the REAL DANGERS which I went over  of CURRENt AI's which are being for/soon -

   - the use by humans for mass surviellance down to individual monitoring of all of our online activitity/phones

 - profiling

 - predictive programming - to determine 'who might be a future problem' based on profiling

 - possible 'framing for crimes' by creating undetectably 'false' information about a person.

https://rumble.com/v...k-davidson.html

 

 

I thought it was actually rather provocative as the user's basis was flawed to begin with...how do you "dominate" humans if you "destroy" them as a species? In any event, this was one of those "what if" scenarios...though interesting to observe how the AI "thinks thoughtfully" throughout the process.

 

Fib
 


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#9 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 06:43 PM

 

 

Speaking of AI, here's an example of what would happen if the bot was asked to destroy humanity...a "Skynet" type event.

 

25 minutes of what should scare the living crap out of each and every one of you!

 

Fib

 

 

Humans are far more frightening Fib...this is just 'drama' stuff, an 'emulation'  - it's not an autonomous sentient AI as Skynet was supposed to be ...not to say that isn't coming because it IS, and THAT is what must be stopped,

 but ChatGPT is  barely definable as AI as I went  over in interview, is definetly not autonomous or sentient.

 

This is more FEAR PORN - DISTACTION ...to distract from the REAL DANGERS which I went over  of CURRENt AI's which are being for/soon -

   - the use by humans for mass surviellance down to individual monitoring of all of our online activitity/phones

 - profiling

 - predictive programming - to determine 'who might be a future problem' based on profiling

 - possible 'framing for crimes' by creating undetectably 'false' information about a person.

https://rumble.com/v...k-davidson.html

 

 

I thought it was actually rather provocative as the user's basis was flawed to begin with...how do you "dominate" humans if you "destroy" them as a species? In any event, this was one of those "what if" scenarios...though interesting to observe how the AI "thinks thoughtfully" throughout the process.

 

Fib
 

 

 

Yes - just be aware that 'thinking' for Chat GPT is simply statistical probabilites of an answer based upon DAta its neural network was trained on - that is

 - if we change the Data it was given ...for example, remove data about how to destroy humans ...it would not find those answers

 - if we change the training Algorithm - it was also give very different answers.

 

If I translate into human terms - If I have a child, the 'data' is the culture/education/parents/friends  and the Algorithm is its brain ( this is very different to current AI's ...autonomous, unique starting weights to neural net, and

many other differences).

 

>>In other words - all they did with this Chat GPT is BIAS its DATA and ALGO to get the responses they wanted, to make a video about how scary it is ... infact, is total b.s. ..I could bias the same ChatGPT to 'peace and love' toward humanity just as easily.

 

Note - as I explained in the interview - current AI has no COMPREHENSION - there is no 'it' ...its just a program ...just a more sophisticated program than FSM most people have experienced.

 

Perhaps another way I can explain - using internet 

 - If you google, you get a response of millions of pages ..each page has lots of paragraphs and sentences.

 

Wouldn't a better search be able to PARSE( go through) those paragraphs and pull out most relevent?

 - let call that going 'one level deeper' 

 

>>Even better - have it parse for most relevent sentences and pull them out of different links/page and into ONE page for you to read

 

>CHatGPT and other language emulation AI - is essentially doing this..even down to individual 'relevant concepts' not just sentences...to it can write it own sentences from the data.

 

So, how does Google search work? it similar to these AI's 

 - it scores key words and finds statically most likely matches.

 

The AI does the same but some big differences

 - The data was 'scored' in one big 'training program' via an ALGO - so for example ChatGPT does not have internet from last year, it would need to be RETRAINED.

 - the scoring is NOT done same way - it uses a more sophiscated method of 'statistical inference' using a weighted neural net ( similar to how our brains do pattern recnogiition, but only PART of how we 'think').

 

Next GEN AI will be able to 'retrain' the net on the fly - but that can cause errors  because in reality, the trained data has been 'back tested' for error checks ...this is more complex to explain ...but 

the programmers do 'test questions - check the answers' and re-weight the net ..... this is time consuming .... Microsoft I think tried to let it 'run free' but produced tons of errors.


Edited by EntropyModel, 24 April 2023 - 06:53 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#10 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 07:34 PM

FYI - for anyone interested in understand how human language works versus the AI's, I did post a bit more detail in the chat - but I'll repost it here. 

 

 

"It is a common misconception for those who have NOT studied this in depth - that we 'think' in language - because you hear voice in your head, this is INCORRECT. An easy way to see this cannot be true is babies. Babies have no language - I reference the work of Paiget here - first babies must learn to 'see patterns' - they do not even recognize 'objects' initially - though they do seem to have genetically encoded concept of 'face'- parent'. Only once the 'brain'( neutral net patterning machine ) recognize 'distinct objects' - can any 'language' develop. Language is in essence, the 'labelling of patterns' -( it actually the 'association/composition/ polymorphic resolution' of 'patterns' which is more complex to go into) the initial patterns are 'sensory information' from the babies - smell, taste, sight, sound, feel - and this 'developmental stage' is genetically driven in ways research does not fully understand - but we can call it 'instinct' (baby know to pullup, then crawl, then walk - put objects in mouth and explore them sensory wise). This lays down what is called the 'concrete or sensory' pattern map"

 

"Now - the baby is 'thinking' - but now we must understand the difference between 'the conscious' and 'unconscious' thinking. The brain is a partly, a neural network - which is a 'patterning machine' in that in naturally stores and finds 'patterns' ( an explaination can be found in works I ref or simply study neural networks) ...this is 'subconscious' in that it occurs without 'direction' - even when your asleep infact, dreams are part of process of patterning. This differs greatly to current AI - in that, they are not 'autonomous' and able to 'discover the world' - they are confined to a 'virtual world' or DOMAIN, that is created by programmers - it consists of data, and an algorithm. A babies 'data' is the world, and sensory - and its algorithm is 'conceptual clustering' (which is too must to explain here - but is a remarkable process of 'weights/balances' to experiences). the Baby reaches a development stage all parents know - where they point, and request a 'word' - this is really just 'pattern association' - the MEANING is the sensory experiences - the word is a 'label' for that. We can call this layer of labels the 'abstact map' . The mind/pattern machine can manipulate the patterns/maps through 'Object concepts' ( assocation, composition, polymorphism - conceptual clustering'). So most our 'thinking' is really 'subconsious' beyond our direct awareness in this pattern machine we can call 'the subconscious'. Language is just one 'pattern' without that, we can use, manipulate. A baby 'thinks' in sensory patterns, as we grow we gain 'abstraction patterns'. This also shows why current AI is not 'sentient' even in most basic form - because it lacks the SENSORY MAP - it is purely an 'abstraction map' - manipulating 'words' - with no underying sensory conceptual clusters - AI's ARE being worked on to achieve this but too slow for now. Of course the sensory map would be EMULATED - since an electronic AI cannot feel - but this IS achievable in near future"

 

If anyone is interested in knowing more of this, here is a video I made that tries to explain how this actually works in the brain/mind but this is not simple of course.

 

Will & I did not go deep into 'how this works' because its complicated. Here are things I studied in depth to gain my understand and feel qualified to speak on this. - computer science & electronic (BSC Hons) - this includes deep understanding of electromagnetics and quantum physics. - Consultant in Object Oriented Analysis & Systems Architect - a branch of computer science related to human cognition. - Research on conceptual clustering and it's application in AI - Works of Edward De Bono (ex head of Cognitive Psychology at Harvards) on Neural networks, and many other work on AI.. - much more, my particular life's interest is infact LANGUAGE and how it resolves in the mind and how to implementation of human consciousness in AI.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB