66 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Yeah. Somewhat outdated. Doom & gloom etc.
Many are like that... they shoukd emulate BOLLINGER who quietly retired or TOM MCCLENNAN who cinstantly uodates stuff

LARRY WILLIAMS:

https://youtu.be/DmqWrOxRg7g

Thanks for posting this. While L. Williams is a superb trader, he sounds to me like a person with an agenda that wants to sell you a narrative. The narrative that he is selling is that inflation has peaked and Fed better not raise rates becasue if they do, they have "some kind of other agenda."
 
When he shows his charts that markets perform very well when inflation peaks, he fails to mention that the reason for that is that rates are being cut. Will the Fed cut rates? Has inflation peaked or is it now permanent becasue of DEBT. Regardless -- inflation is good for Wall Street as It's the nominal growth that drives earnings despite unit growth declining. This is not 1970s.
 
He is likely positioned long for a bubble that he expects to happen when Fed cuts rates.

[dTraderB]

CLosed ES HEDGE LONG 4400
Will reopen on any spike down below 4370

Holding 1 NQ HEDGE LONG

CLosed NDVA
cLosed 1 NQ HEDGE LONG - HOLDING 1 NQ & 1 ES HEDGE LONG

WILL CLOSE ES HEDGE LONG above 4390 If traded TODAY

[dTraderB]

Chinese markets ready to explode as CHINA desperately tries to get that economy going:

"Economists surveyed by Reuters expect price pressures to have moderated last month, with the headline consumer price index falling to 4.1% on an annual basis from 4.9% the prior month. Core inflation is seen moderating to 5.3% in May.



"The big question from the CPI will be how it affects the Fed's policy decision tomorrow," said Deutsche Bank strategists led by Jim Reid.



Money market traders are pricing around a three-in-four chance the Fed keeps rates on hold and a one-in-four shot of a 25 basis point hike.



Another stubborn inflation reading could see a shift in expectations.



"Given there's only a day to go, the fact that markets are still pricing in a non-trivial likelihood of a June hike shows that they're not ready to discount the probability of a move just yet," Reid and co. said.



For now, U.S. markets are in a buoyant mood.



The S&P 500 closed on Monday at its highest level since April last year and is up well over 20% from its October 2022 low - a bear market rally or a new bull market?



The narrowness of the rally has some questioning whether it can be the latter, as an-often common theme across bull markets is broad participation across sectors.



It's no secret this rally has been driven mostly by large-cap tech stocks. An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, which dilutes the impact of said stocks, is up just 3.1% in 2023, yet to recover to levels seen in March before problems emerged at U.S. regional banks.



European markets are still somewhat upbeat after the People's Bank of China offered an overnight gift to bulls with a 10-basis point cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate.



That cut fueled speculation that longer-term rates could fall over the coming weeks to boost an economy that has stuttered as it reopened following some of the longest and toughest COVID restrictions."

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
U.S. CPI, FOMC begins two-day meeting
U.S. 30-year bond auction

Chinese markets ready to explode as CHINA desperately tries to get that economy going:

"Economists surveyed by Reuters expect price pressures to have moderated last month, with the headline consumer price index falling to 4.1% on an annual basis from 4.9% the prior month. Core inflation is seen moderating to 5.3% in May.



"The big question from the CPI will be how it affects the Fed's policy decision tomorrow," said Deutsche Bank strategists led by Jim Reid.



Money market traders are pricing around a three-in-four chance the Fed keeps rates on hold and a one-in-four shot of a 25 basis point hike.



Another stubborn inflation reading could see a shift in expectations.



"Given there's only a day to go, the fact that markets are still pricing in a non-trivial likelihood of a June hike shows that they're not ready to discount the probability of a move just yet," Reid and co. said.



For now, U.S. markets are in a buoyant mood.



The S&P 500 closed on Monday at its highest level since April last year and is up well over 20% from its October 2022 low - a bear market rally or a new bull market?



The narrowness of the rally has some questioning whether it can be the latter, as an-often common theme across bull markets is broad participation across sectors.



It's no secret this rally has been driven mostly by large-cap tech stocks. An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, which dilutes the impact of said stocks, is up just 3.1% in 2023, yet to recover to levels seen in March before problems emerged at U.S. regional banks.



European markets are still somewhat upbeat after the People's Bank of China offered an overnight gift to bulls with a 10-basis point cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate.



That cut fueled speculation that longer-term rates could fall over the coming weeks to boost an economy that has stuttered as it reopened following some of the longest and toughest COVID restrictions."

[dTraderB]

Not trading AAPL here, but will consider SHORT after FED MEETING:

BARRON'S:
"Apple and a Few Tech Stocks Are Pushing This Bull. Why Thats Worrying.
The stock market is entering a new era of Big Tech dominance.

Apple stock closed at a record high Monday and the tech giant is closing in on a $3 trillion market cap. Tesla is also getting in on the actits stock rose for a record 12th consecutive day, and pointed higher again early Tuesday.

Fresh from entering a bull market, the S&P 500 reached a 52-week high Monday and looked set for more gains Tuesday.

A peek under the surface, however, and all is not quite so rosy. Its now common knowledge, but the market rally is narrow, to say the least. While the S&P 500 is up 13% so far in 2023, the equal-weight index, which assigns each company the same weight0.2% of the indexhas climbed 3%.

The equal-weight index has yet to recover to its levels before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, Deutsche Bank strategists noted Tuesday.

There are two ways of looking at it. The glass half-full approach says that if the broader market can start making substantial gains, then the rally is just getting started. On the other hand, the dominance of a select few shows a lack of positivity when it comes to the majority of the market, and leaves it exposed if tech sentiment changes.

The next few days will be key in determining whether the broader market boosts the rally or stalls it. Inflation data, followed by the Federal Reserves latest rate decision, will be an early test for the bull market."

[12SPX]

Another exciting day in this very interesting market.  It is so obvious it needs to correct its ridiculous but still holding up.  I'd say it's a bull market but as everyone knows I don't believe its a bull until you see new highs.  Always thinking of the last guy who bought at the very top like someone we know on here lol!!  Still have my June short at 4250 which is likely going to have to be rolled over and my current one now sitting at an average smooth average of 4350.  Next few days should be interesting with data and the Fed out!! 

[dTraderB]

CPI
NO MAJOR SURPRISE

That is bullish, status quo of market remains same

But markets near important resistance, overextended, FED tonorrow

Coukd be choppy basing markets until 2pm tomorrow

Edited by dTraderB, 13 June 2023 - 07:36 AM.

[12SPX]

Added to my September short with the pop, average short now 4365.....   So far its looking like this trade is turning out to be a longer hold been an entire week now lol!! 

[12SPX]

What the most interesting thing is that since May 4th the market has moved up about +7.5% with a cash gap May 4th at 4061 then another at 4115, May 24th, another at 4221 June 1st, 4338 yesterday and way back on 3/28 a gap at 3971.  I know it is really challenging to believe that we could ever see those levels again but from my knowledge I don't believe there have ever been anytime in history that those gaps weren't filled even if it was years later.  Well at least since about 1985 when I was more in the market lol!!  Just to specify this is the cash market on the S&P500, could this time be different, guess we'll see as they generally are some time.  Were hitting my program levels today for this expiration cycle so will be interesting to see where we finish the week out here...

[linrom1]

I feel like a Pavlov's dog salivating at the prospect of a triple top. DE earns a LOT overseas where they can't print money like they can in Ukraine warongering EU, US and puppet loli land of Japan.