66 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Back from vacation.  

This looks a great set up for buying on the rumor and selling on the news.  So, the market is likely going down after the Fed meeting .......................

[12SPX]

Great time to come back to set up some nice shorts lol!!

[jacek]

It's my birthday today so not spending as much time on the market but gotta say I am in complete shock on these call option prices on how absurd they are.  You can sell daily options for incredible prices now wow!!  If anyone doesn't think people aren't extremely bullish you've got to be kidding.  Not a healthy advance at all!!  Anyhow added a little more to my September trade bringing it to an average short of 4375 now with this pop in anticipation of a perfect world and the Fed.  Saw a very interesting report from Campbell Harvey from Duke University.  I guess he invented something about the inversion curve in the bond market and he has now changed his tune on the economy now seeing a very hard landing because of the inversion as he didn't expect the Fed to keep raising rates after January and stopping now is  to late.  Should be interesting how it plays out.....

 

Happy Birthday ! 

 

[12SPX]

Thanks so far my wish hasn't come true but I'm being patient.  I feel bad for all these option buyers though, people are picking up huge premiums on these dailys!!

[dTraderB]

ES 4420 HEDGE LONG

 

RELUCTANTLY BUT GO TO STICK WITH THE SYSTEM

 

LARGEST SHORT POSITION SINCE JANUARY PEAK

 

NQ 15114 HEDGE LONG
ADDED HANG SENG & BABA LONGS
Will add more HK & CHINESE LONGS

[dTraderB]

wild!

added 1 each es nq hedge long

[dTraderB]

Want to close 1 es, 1 nq hedge long

This looks like a ST or IT TOP

wild!
added 1 each es nq hedge long

[dTraderB]

YARDENI:

Last Sunday, we predicted the FOMC would skip another rate hike but hint that rate hiking might not be over. And that's exactly what happened.

The FOMC's statement noted: "Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy."

The latest Summary of Economic Projections shows the federal funds rate rising to 5.6%, up from the 5.1% projected in the December and March SEPs. This implies two more 25bps rate hikes this year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the core inflation rate remains sticky and too high. He wants to see more progress in getting it down. The SEP shows the core PCED at 3.9% this year, up from the March SEP projection of 3.6%.

However, the committee still expects this inflation rate to fall to 2.2% in 2025. No one on the committee expects a rate cut this year.

Interestingly, while the Fed's staff projected a mild recession at the May meeting, the committee raised its projection of economic growth. Real GDP is expected to be up 1.0% this year versus the March estimate of 0.4%.

This suggests a soft landing, which aligns with our forecast. The Fed's latest moves and projections give us a lot to consider as we navigate the economic landscape.

[dTraderB]

75% or higher probability a ST OR IT HIGH was made today. es 4500 csn be traded during the next few days but that will not negate THIS HIGH.
FED has all but guaranteed a HIKE next meeting.
FED badly wants to tighten & reduce liquidity
FED MUST REDUCE INFLATION or else it becomes sticky ....
FED ERRED WHEN THEY DELAYED HIKES but cannnot afford to err now.
POWELL tried to be as forceful as he could but other FED speakers will be more convincing & persuasive.

[dTraderB]

xTrends (@xtrends) tweeted at 8:47 AM on Wed, Jun 14, 2023:
everyone is expecting a pullback after a big run and overbought condition...

you either wont get a pullback or if you do, it is not a pullback you want to buy
(https://twitter.com/...2445448193?s=03)